Public health, economic effects and government support

Public health - Dr Jane Halpin, Director, Clinical Lead, Deloitte UK

• Since further social restrictions were implemented across the globe, the impact of different suppression strategies are becoming clearer.
• Those countries that have combined strict self-isolation measures with large scale testing seem to have more rapidly slowed the rate of increase of cases. These countries include Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea.
• It is too early to say how the varying approaches taken across Europe and the rest of the world will affect increases in cases and deaths. The more control that can be exerted over social distancing and case isolation the better, but varying social norms mean these measures cannot be implemented in the same way across the globe. 

The UK and global economy - Maximilien Lambertson, Economist, Deloitte UK

• In the past week, monetary policy easing has started to have a visible impact in pockets of the financial system.
• Governments globally are responding to the pandemic with massive fiscal stimulus, but the key is to preserve capacity in order to help businesses and individuals tide over the sudden stop in activity, rather than the typical goal of stimulating the economy.
• Mobility restrictions and social distancing measures are having a large impact on economic activity, leading to a spike in unemployment. Additionally, Google search trends show increased volumes of people searching for the term “unemployment benefits”.
• There are signs that the Chinese economy is recovering, and certainly consumer sentiment rebounded in March, but it is too soon to know how quickly the global economy will rebound.
• Webinar guests were asked three questions in relation to the impact of COVID-19, results are summarised below:

1. Do policymakers have sufficient policy tools to cushion the economy from the COVID-19 shock?
   57% responded yes, an improvement from last week’s webinar and a result which suggests the government schemes are being well received.
2. What will be the ultimate impact on the economic growth of COVID-19?
   75% thought it would be a possibly severe, short-lived slowdown, 25% a protracted and severe downturn.
3. When do you think activity will rebound in your economy?
   40% think activity will rebound in Q4 2020, and 36% in Q1 2021. No one expected activity to rebound in the second quarter.

Government funding initiatives for businesses – Jodi Birkett, Financial Advisory partner, Deloitte UK

• The government has already offered businesses a large package of measures and are expected to make further announcements in relation to the self-employed.
• You will be able to view the slides from the webinar here. Included on them is an overview and recommendations on some of the key schemes:
  - The Coronavirus Job Retentions Scheme (CJRS)
  - The Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS)
  - COVID Corporate Financing Facility
  - The Tech-Force 19 challenge, which will provide £500,000 (£25,000 per company) of funding for new technology that can be scaled within weeks, to support measures put in place in relation to social distancing and self-isolation;
  - £20 million worth of COVID-19 research investment, to be shared across six projects;
  - An NHS volunteering scheme, announced on the 24th March. By the 25th March, 405,000 people had signed up, equivalent to the population of Coventry. 

For more info:
HM Government business support
Deloitte COVID-19 Taskforce: Daily update