Viewing offline content

Limited functionality available

Dismiss
Deloitte UK
  • Services

    Highlights

    • Major Programmes

      Connecting people and technology to anticipate and respond to ever-changing conditions, and solve for society’s greatest challenges.

    • Deloitte Ventures

      Connecting our clients to emerging start-ups, leading technology players and a whole raft of new Deloitte talent.

    • Towards net zero together

      Discover the people leading the change and what could be possible for your business.

    • Audit & Assurance

      • Audit
      • Audit - IASPlus
      • Assurance
    • Consulting

      • Core Business Operations
      • Customer and Marketing
      • Enterprise Technology & Performance
      • Human Capital
      • Strategy, Analytics and M&A
    • Financial Advisory

      • Mergers & Acquisitions
      • Performance Improvement
    • Legal

      • Legal Advisory
      • Legal Managed Services
      • Legal Management Consulting
    • Deloitte Private

      • Family Enterprises
      • Private Equity
      • Emerging Growth
    • Risk Advisory

      • Accounting and Internal Controls
      • Cyber and Strategic Risk
      • Regulatory and Legal
    • Tax

      • Global Business Tax Services
      • Indirect Tax
      • Global Employer Services
  • Industries

    Highlights

    • Ecosystems & Alliances

      An engine to embrace and harness disruptive change

    • Resilience Reimagined

      Resilient organisations thrive before, during and after adversity. How will you become more resilient?

    • Consumer

      • Automotive
      • Consumer Products
      • Retail, Wholesale & Distribution
      • Transportation, Hospitality & Services
    • Energy, Resources & Industrials

      • Industrial Products & Construction
      • Mining & Metals
      • Energy & Chemicals
      • Power, Utilities & Renewables
      • Future of Energy
    • Financial Services

      • Banking
      • Capital Markets
      • Insurance
      • Investment Management
      • Real Estate
      • FinTech & Alternative Finance
    • Government & Public Services

      • Health & Human Services
      • Defence, Security & Justice
      • Central Government
      • Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Government
    • Life Sciences & Health Care

      • Health Care
      • Life Sciences
    • Technology, Media & Telecommunications

      • Telecommunications, Media & Entertainment
      • Technology
  • Insights

    Deloitte Insights

    Highlights

    • Deloitte Insights Magazine

      Explore the latest issue now

    • Deloitte Insights app

      Go straight to smart with daily updates on your mobile device

    • Weekly economic update

      See what's happening this week and the impact on your business

    • Strategy

      • Business Strategy & Growth
      • Digital Transformation
      • Governance & Board
      • Innovation
      • Marketing & Sales
      • Private Enterprise
    • Economy & Society

      • Economy
      • Environmental, Social, & Governance
      • Health Equity
      • Trust
      • Mobility
    • Organization

      • Operations
      • Finance & Tax
      • Risk & Regulation
      • Supply Chain
      • Smart Manufacturing
    • People

      • Leadership
      • Talent & Work
      • Diversity, Equity, & Inclusion
    • Technology

      • Data & Analytics
      • Emerging Technologies
      • Technology Management
    • Industries

      • Consumer
      • Energy, Resources, & Industrials
      • Financial Services
      • Government & Public Services
      • Life Sciences & Health Care
      • Technology, Media, & Telecommunications
    • Spotlight

      • Deloitte Insights Magazine
      • Press Room Podcasts
      • Weekly Economic Update
      • COVID-19
      • Resilience
      • Top 10 reading guide
  • Careers

    Highlights

    • Hear from our people

      At Deloitte, our people are at the heart of what we do. Discover their stories to find out more about Life at Deloitte.

    • Careers Home

  • UK-EN Location: United Kingdom-English  
  • UK-EN Location: United Kingdom-English  
    • Dashboard
    • Saved Items
    • Content feed
    • Profile/Interests
    • Account settings

Welcome back

Still not a member? Join My Deloitte

In the throes of a dual-front crisis

by Stephen Rogers, Leon Pieters
  • Save for later
  • Share
    • Share on Facebook
    • Share on Twitter
    • Share on Linkedin
    • Share by email
Deloitte Insights
  • Strategy
    Strategy
    Strategy
    • Business Strategy & Growth
    • Digital Transformation
    • Governance & Board
    • Innovation
    • Marketing & Sales
    • Private Enterprise
  • Economy & Society
    Economy & Society
    Economy & Society
    • Economy
    • Environmental, Social, & Governance
    • Health Equity
    • Trust
    • Mobility
  • Organization
    Organization
    Organization
    • Operations
    • Finance & Tax
    • Risk & Regulation
    • Supply Chain
    • Smart Manufacturing
  • People
    People
    People
    • Leadership
    • Talent & Work
    • Diversity, Equity, & Inclusion
  • Technology
    Technology
    Technology
    • Data & Analytics
    • Emerging Technologies
    • Technology Management
  • Industries
    Industries
    Industries
    • Consumer
    • Energy, Resources, & Industrials
    • Financial Services
    • Government & Public Services
    • Life Sciences & Health Care
    • Tech, Media, & Telecom
  • Spotlight
    Spotlight
    Spotlight
    • Deloitte Insights Magazine
    • Press Room Podcasts
    • Weekly Economic Update
    • COVID-19
    • Resilience
    • Top 10 reading guide
    • UK-EN Location: United Kingdom-English  
      • Dashboard
      • Saved Items
      • Content feed
      • Profile/Interests
      • Account settings
    8 minute read 29 April 2020

    In the throes of a dual-front crisis Establishing the road to a global consumer recovery

    8 minute read 29 April 2020
    • Stephen Rogers United States
    • Leon Pieters Netherlands
    • Save for later
    • Share
      • Share on Facebook
      • Share on Twitter
      • Share on Linkedin
      • Share by email
    • How anxious are consumers overall?
    • Health and financial concerns remain relatively high worldwide
    • Do consumers feel safe doing ordinary things?
    • Where are consumers spending their money?
    • What does the average net spending intent by country tell us?

    How is the interplay between personal safety and economic concerns affecting consumer spending behavior? Explore our global survey findings to find out.

    In the span of a few months, what started as a global health crisis has also morphed into an economic crisis. It’s been more than a century since the world has seen these two forces so intertwined.1 As economies the world over seek to reopen, businesses are keenly interested in the interplay between personal safety and economic behavior. When will consumers feel safe enough to return to work, stores, theaters, restaurants, and travel? Will they return to old behaviors or will new ones be born? How will consumers in different countries weather these dual crises?

    To begin to answer these questions, Deloitte is conducting a series of biweekly surveys in multiple countries to understand the mindset of the consumer. Our first such survey, conducted the week of April 13, 2020, turned up the findings we share below. Check in every two weeks as we continue to explore the consumer mindset and emergent trends in successive surveys. As we gather longitudinal data, we expect to develop insights into the “new normal” that we are all about to inhabit.

    About the survey

    Each biweekly survey is fielded using an online panel methodology where consumers are invited to complete the questionnaire (translated into local languages) via email. The surveys, conducted in 13 countries and designed to be nationally representative of the overall population in each market, poll 1,000 consumers in each country.

     

    Learn more

    Learn how to combat COVID-19 with resilience

    Explore the Deloitte State of the Consumer Tracker

    Subscribe to stay on top of changing consumer behavior trends

    Learn about Deloitte’s services

    Go straight to smart. Get the Deloitte Insights app

    How anxious are consumers overall?

    We are all living through an anxious moment. We have varying levels of concern for our personal safety and our financial health. As countries move through different stages of the health and economic crisis, we asked respondents if they were more anxious this week than the previous week.

    Collectively, respondents in India and Japan showed the greatest rise in anxiety, possibly due to the extension of stay-at-home orders that impact employment prospects. They were followed by the United Kingdom, Spain, and Italy (figure 1). In contrast, respondents in South Korea, the Netherlands, and Germany, on average, disagreed that they were more anxious this week than the previous week, possibly as a result of adjusting to the new normal and/or announcements of plans to reopen their economies. Either way, their reported lack of increase in anxiety is a hopeful sign to those who are still in the throes of the crisis.

    Global anxiety continues to rise, led by India and Japan

    Health and financial concerns remain relatively high worldwide

    In the matter of weeks, the ordinary acts of going to the store or taking a flight have become more fraught with concern. With many economies driven by consumption, it’s likely not until the public feels safe that consumers will return to behaviors that we only recently took for granted and economies return to strength. It will be interesting to watch these attitudes as economies attempt to reopen. When will the consumer feel it safe to consume more than the essentials?

    Concern for one’s physical well-being and that of family and others remains relatively high across the countries we studied. Health concerns were the highest in the world’s two most populous countries, China and India, while they were lowest in the Netherlands and South Korea (figure 2). South Korea has been aggressive about testing and keeping its economy open.2

    Around the world, many economies have come to a near-complete standstill due to COVID-19. The knock-on effect has been rising unemployment across the globe. In United States, hit hard by the COVID-19 virus, 22 million people filed for unemployment insurance in the four weeks leading up to April 17, 2020—wiping out a decade of employment gains.3

    On average, across all the countries we surveyed, 42 percent of respondents who still had a job were concerned about losing their jobs (figure 2), led by respondents in Spain (62 percent), India (54 percent), and South Korea (51 percent). Respondents in Spain and India were also the most concerned about making upcoming payments. And respondents in India (66 percent) and China (59 percent) were the most likely to be delaying large purchases. Meanwhile, respondents in France and the Netherlands felt the most secure in their employment status, and respondents in the Netherlands and Japan were the least concerned about making upcoming payments.

    As the pandemic peaks, health concerns still overpower financial concerns, but concerns over job loss are mounting

    But health concerns continue to dominate over financial concerns, particularly among countries that have been affected by COVID-19 the longest (figure 3). In India, health and financial concerns are currently more or less on par with one another. Western Europe, North America, and Australia appear to share similar levels of concern. Spain is a little higher and the Netherlands a little lower in concern along both dimensions than the other countries in this group.

    Global concern is likely influenced by pandemic stage and economic confidence

    Do consumers feel safe doing ordinary things?

    The world over, we are observing that the concern about one’s personal health typically informs the feeling of safety in doing what was, up until very recently, life’s ordinary activities. Across the countries we surveyed, only 35 percent of respondents said that they feel safe going to the store, 25 percent said they feel safe staying in a hotel, and only 22 percent said they feel safe taking a flight (figure 4).

    Feeling of safely engaging in ordinary activities remains low worldwide

    Consumers’ concerns about their well-being has obvious implications for retailers, restaurants, hoteliers, airlines, and a host of other consumer-oriented businesses. People should feel safe before economies can reopen and society returns to any level of normalcy.

    In contrast to their relatively high level of health and financial concern, a relatively high proportion of respondents in India said that they would feel safe staying in a hotel or taking a flight. As India fortunately has not seen major COVID-19-related consequences, concerns over health and finances have likely yet to translate into daily attitudes about safety (or spending behavior, which we discuss in more detail below).

    Where are consumers spending their money?

    Facing a great deal of economic uncertainty, many consumers are looking to curb their more discretionary spend, and they may eventually look for ways to cut even their less discretionary spend to make ends meet. Indeed, our survey suggests that in many countries, most consumers’ net spending intent is to curb their discretionary spend over the next four weeks (figure 5). (We chose to ask about a four-week period because it represents a typical household budgetary timeframe. Our survey will track a rolling four weeks in subsequent surveys to understand how net intentions are changing.)

    When we look at net spending intent—that is, the percentage of respondents indicating that they will spend more minus the percentage of those who say they will spend less—not surprisingly, we see a net intent spending increase in less discretionary categories, led by household goods and groceries. With many people working from home, the survey also showed slight rise in the intent to spend on utilities, internet, and mobile communications.

    With stay-at-home orders still in effect for many, more discretionary categories such as travel and automobile fuel are easy categories to eliminate from the consumer’s current budget. However, if economic impacts continue to drag on, consumers are likely to start adjusting their less discretionary spend as well.

    Consumers intend to curb more discretionary spend over the next four weeks

    What does the average net spending intent by country tell us?

    When we take a more macro view of net spending intent, some countries such as India, China, and Germany show more net intention to spend on both more discretionary and less discretionary items such as books, cable TV, and entertainment (figure 6).4 This may reflect their confidence in their countries’ public health campaigns, economies, and/or public safety nets—or it could reflect consumers’ strategy to distract themselves from an uncertain future. Consumers in India may be currently seeking to stockpile less discretionary items. News stories suggest that many are upgrading internet plans as work shifts to home, buying months’ worth of medicine,5 and spending on health care.

    Consumers intend to shift their share of the wallet to less discretionary items

    However, the consumers we surveyed in all other countries, particularly Canada and Italy, report that they intend to lower their average discretionary spend over the next four weeks. As isolation measures start to relax, the extent to which purchase intent fluctuates for more discretionary items may be a good indicator of pent-up demand in each market going forward. Either way, it will likely be useful to watch as confidence returns over the coming weeks.

    No one wishes for a resurgence of COVID-19 later this year. Should the disease reemerge, it will be telling to see how countries rise to the occasion to protect their citizens and their economies.

    Acknowledgments

    The authors would like to thank Evan Lu, Marcello Gasdia, Ryan Robinson, Lupine Skelly, Nithya Swaminathan, Ram Sangadi, Arun Tom, Sanjay Mallik Vadrevu, Alok Ranjan, Sandeep Vellanki, Sathish Kumar Nelanuthula, Yvette Ellis, Daniel Han, Anisha Sharma, Courtney Smith, Katie Weir, Lisa Su, Joanie Pearson, Junko Kaji, Molly Woodworth, Sylvia Yoon Chang, Alexandra Kawecki, and Preetha Devan for their contributions to this article.

    Cover image by: Alex Nabaum

    Endnotes
      1. Sergio Correia and Stephan Luck, “How can we save lives and the economy? Lessons from the Spanish Flu pandemic,” World Economic Forum, April 2, 2020. View in article

      2. Dasal Yoon and Timothy W. Martin, “How South Korea put into place the world’s most aggressive coronavirus test program,” Wall Street Journal, March 16, 2020. View in article

      3. Heather Long, “U.S. now has 22 million unemployed, wiping out a decade of job gains,” Washington Post, April 17, 2020. View in article

      4. Devika Singh, “How is coronavirus impacting the streaming platforms with an increasing appetite of viewers,” Financial Express, April 6, 2020. View in article

      5. Sohini Das, “Coronavirus outbreak: Pharma market grows 9% in March due to panic buying,” Business Standard, April 9, 2020. View in article

    Show moreShow less

    Topics in this article

    Consumer Products , Consumer Spending , Economics , Marketing , Retail & Distribution , Consumer Industry

    Deloitte Consumer Industry Center

    Technology is changing rapidly, and so are consumers, radically altering how companies do business. The Deloitte Consumer Industry Center delivers insights that help leaders in the automotive, consumer products, retail, transportation, hospitality, and services sectors better understand their business environment and where it’s heading.

    Learn more
    Get in touch
    Contact
    • Leon Pieters
    • Global Consumer Industry leader
    • Partner | Deloitte NL
    • leonpieters@deloitte.nl
    • +31 6 52 67 25 24

    Download Subscribe

    Related content

    img Trending

    Interactive 3 days ago

    Explore more about consumer behavior

    • Consumer products & retail Collection
    • In an uncertain economy, does fresh produce spoil revenue growth? Article2 years ago
    • The consumer is changing, but perhaps not how you think Article3 years ago
    • The future of fresh Collection
    • Augmented shopping: The quiet revolution Article3 years ago
    Stephen Rogers

    Stephen Rogers

    Managing Director

    Steve is the managing director of Deloitte's Consumer Industry Center, Deloitte Services LP. He leads a team that conducts research to uncover new ways of thinking, working, and leading within the consumer industry through data and evidence driven analysis. With nearly 20 years of experience within consulting and high tech, Steve is especially interested in the intersection of technology, consumers, and business. He is focused on how industry leaders can deliver better results and the strategies organizations use to adapt to accelerating change.

    • stephenrogers@deloitte.com
    • +1 475 277 9018
    Leon Pieters

    Leon Pieters

    Global Consumer Industry Leader

    Leon Pieters is the Consumer Industry leader for Deloitte Global. In this role he has responsibility for overseeing Deloitte Global’s four consumer sectors: Automotive; Consumer Products; Retail, Wholesale & Distribution (RWD); and Transportation, Hospitality & Services (THS). Leon is charged with setting the overall strategic direction and go-to-market strategy for the practice. Currently a consulting partner in the Netherlands firm, Leon has more than 18 years of experience working with large multinationals, especially in the food & beverage space, on strategy & transformation projects across the major countries in Europe and in the United States. His key areas of expertise include supply chain strategy, operating models, process optimization, technology enablement and digital transformations. Leon is a sponsoring partner of the LGBT initiative (GLOBE) of Deloitte Netherlands and is a Board Member of Workplace Pride, the international organization for inclusiveness of LGBT employees in the workplace.

    • leonpieters@deloitte.nl
    • +31 6 52 67 25 24

    Share article highlights

    See something interesting? Simply select text and choose how to share it:

    Email a customized link that shows your highlighted text.
    Copy a customized link that shows your highlighted text.
    Copy your highlighted text.

    In the throes of a dual-front crisis has been saved

    In the throes of a dual-front crisis has been removed

    An Article Titled In the throes of a dual-front crisis already exists in Saved items

    Invalid special characters found 
    Forgot password

    To stay logged in, change your functional cookie settings.

    OR

    Social login not available on Microsoft Edge browser at this time.

    Connect Accounts

    Connect your social accounts

    This is the first time you have logged in with a social network.

    You have previously logged in with a different account. To link your accounts, please re-authenticate.

    Log in with an existing social network:

    To connect with your existing account, please enter your password:

    OR

    Log in with an existing site account:

    To connect with your existing account, please enter your password:

    Forgot password

    Subscribe

    to receive more business insights, analysis, and perspectives from Deloitte Insights
    ✓ Link copied to clipboard
    • Contact us
    • Careers at Deloitte
    • Submit RFP
    Follow Deloitte Insights:
    Global office directory Office locations
    UK-EN Location: United Kingdom-English  
    About Deloitte
    • Home
    • Press releases
    • Newsroom
    • Deloitte Insights
    • Global Office Directory
    • Office locator
    • Contact us
    • Submit RFP
    Services
    • Audit & Assurance
    • Consulting
    • Financial Advisory
    • Legal
    • Deloitte Private
    • Risk Advisory
    • Tax
    Industries
    • Consumer
    • Energy, Resources & Industrials
    • Financial Services
    • Government & Public Services
    • Life Sciences & Health Care
    • Technology, Media & Telecommunications
    Careers
    • Careers Home
    • About Deloitte
    • About Deloitte UK
    • Accessibility statement
    • Cookies
    • Health and Safety
    • Modern Slavery Act Statement
    • Privacy statement
    • Regulators & Provision of Services Regulations
    • Deloitte LLP Subprocessors
    • Supplier Standard Terms & Conditions
    • Terms of Use

    © 2023. See Terms of Use for more information.

     

    Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom affiliate of Deloitte NSE LLP, a member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee (“DTTL”). DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL and Deloitte NSE LLP do not provide services to clients. Please see About Deloitte to learn more about our global network of member firms.

     

    Deloitte LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC303675 and its registered office at 1 New Street Square, London EC4A 3HQ, United Kingdom. A list of members of Deloitte LLP is available at Companies House.