A quarterly overview of the European Private Debt Market
Deloitte PDDT Spring 2023 Trends
Deal activity remains subdued as asset valuations fall and sponsor-backed M&A stalls
The second half of 2022 saw 345 deals completed with 1651 wrapped up in Q4. This reflects a quarterly 8.3%1 drop-off compared to Q3 and a semi-annual decline of 14.8% when compared to H1. Despite the wider economic environment’s best-efforts to disrupt the private debt market, 2022 deal activity only slightly lagged behind 2021, once again reflecting a busy start to the year and the asset class’s relative resilience in the face of adverse macroeconomic conditions.
French deal activity overtakes the UK for the first time in more-than five years
H2 2022 saw France temporarily claim the crown as Europe’s leading jurisdiction for private debt deal-making, accounting for 28.1% of total transactions. On an annual basis, French deals rose by 31.9%, with German activity falling by 5.7% and UK activity falling by 24.0%. Comparing H1 to H2 reveals that the geographic shift in capital allocation has primarily arisen off the back of the French market showing resilience in the face of wider economic challenges. Quarterly deal count over the past 12 months has been very consistent in France whereas other geographies, such as the UK and Germany, have seen a notable drop-off in H2.
TMT comes out on top again as the most popular sector for deal activity
For the third year running, TMT pipped Business, Infrastructure & Professional Services and Healthcare & Life Sciences to the title of ‘most popular sector’ for European private debt activity, accounting for 22.8% of all deals. This trend is consistent in the UK and France, with TMT accounting for 23.4% and 18.0% respectively followed by Business, Infrastructure & Professional Services at 23.0% and 17.5%. As the market continues to evolve through the downcycle, it is likely that assets in industries underpinned by healthy profitability and stable cashflow generation will continue to be the primary area of lender focus. Resilient growth sub-sectors with temporarily undervalued assets, such as branches of Healthcare & Life Sciences, are likely to lead the charge.
Uptick in buyer and vendor valuation mismatches drives an increase in number of collapsed mid-market sales processes
Leveraged Buyouts and Bolt-On M&A continue to account for the majority of deals, however, dropped by over 11.3% on an absolute basis between H1 and H2 2022, and by 12.1% between Q3 and Q4 2022. Early signs suggest that deal activity might start to pick up again moving into 2023, however, the market will likely take several months to adjust to stabilising macro conditions before M&A activity picks up pace.
1 On a like-for-like basis (i.e., by adjusting the deal count to reflect the same population of Lender respondents from the immediate prior quarter), these figures would respectively be: 150 and 8.0%.
Insights into the Deloitte Private Debt Deal Tracker
Currently covers 72 private debt providers. Only UK and European deals are included in the survey.
*For the purpose of the deal tracker, we classify senior only deals with pricing L + 650bps or above as unitranche. Pricing below this hurdle is classified as senior debt.
How much funding has been raised by which private debt managers?
Winter 2022: Deal activity decelerates in the face of macro-economic headwinds
Autumn 2022: Evolving from the Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker
Autumn 2022: Welcome to the Deloitte Private Debt Deal Tracker 'PDDT'
Autumn 2022: 2022 Market Trends
Evolving from the Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker
In the ten years we have been tracking alternative lending, one of the most remarkable observations has been the speed at which it has grown. Since 2012 the asset class has grown in Europe from $36.2bn of AUM to $187bn today. The number of lenders we collaborate with for this publication has grown from 20 to 68. The headcount in the direct lending market has more than doubled since 2016. In the space of a decade the alternative lending market has grown to be more than just a niche subcategory of a larger fixed income/alternatives strategy, to an asset class of its own right.
In our Spring 2022 edition of the Alternative Lender Deal Tracker, we questioned whether it may be time to refresh the title of this publication given that non-bank lending makes up an estimated 80% of mid-market deals. We had to ask ourselves “Is ‘alternative lending’ really that alternative?”
Now, as we finish celebrating ten years of the Alternative Lender Deal Tracker, we are happy to announce that we are renaming our publication to the Private Debt Deal Tracker. There are many ways in which the field is still growing and developing and there is a long way to go on the road to full maturity. We look forward to delivering insights on the twists and turns along the way. Here’s to the next ten years!
Our Debt Advisory team has been in active dialogue with the leading European lenders to set up a quarterly database, which monitors the primary European deal activity involving these lenders. 72 private debt funds have participated in the Deloitte Private Debt Deal Tracker and the results are released to interested parties on a quarterly basis in a public version of the tracker.
The Deloitte Debt, Capital & Treasury Advisory team releases a full Deal Tracker publication on a twice-yearly basis with the first edition covering H1 (released in Q3) and the second edition covering H2 (released in Q1 the following year). The online interactive database on this webpage is updated on a quarterly basis.
Debt, Capital & Treasury Advisory
Debt, Capital & Treasury Advisory is an integral part of Deloitte's Financial Advisory practice, providing independent advice and world class execution across the full spectrum of debt markets through the firm's global network.
The team offers advice to clients on all aspects of dealing with debt providers, including the refinancing of debt, raising acquisition finance, and considering accessing a new debt market. Clients include public and private companies, PE houses and their investee companies, financial institutions and governments.
Deloitte Private Debt Deal Tracker - Autumn 2022
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker - Spring 2022
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker - Autumn 2021
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker - Spring 2021
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker - Autumn 2020
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker - Spring 2020
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker - Autumn 2019
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker - Spring 2019
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker - Autumn 2018
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker - Summer 2018
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker - Spring 2018
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker - Q3 2017
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker - Q2 2017
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker - Q1 2017
Head of Private Debt Deal Tracker
Partner, UK Debt, Capital & Treasury Advisory