Consumers to spend £1.5bn more this Christmas

• Consumers will spend £42.4bn this Christmas - over £1.5bn more than in 2013
• Sales for December are forecast to rise by 4% year-on-year
• Online will account for 13% of sales, but 50% of total market growth
• Click and collect will almost double, accounting for £2.5bn of online sales
• 40% of store sales will be digitally influenced, equivalent to £15bn.

Sales this December are forecast to rise 4% year-on-year, with consumers predicted to spend £42.4bn - over £1.5bn more than Christmas 2013 - according to analysis from the business advisory firm Deloitte.

Online sales are forecast to account for 13% of total sales. While this is just one percentage point more than December 2013, online will account for 50% of the market growth. This is being driven by growing consumer engagement with digital technology, combined with a growing number of retailers adopting a multichannel model.

Digital is also going to play a key role in in-store sales this Christmas. Deloitte estimates 40% of physical shop sales will be digitally influenced*, meaning consumers will use some form of digital technology to inform or facilitate their purchase. This is equivalent to £15bn, which is almost three times the size of forecast online sales for December.

Ian Geddes, head of retail at Deloitte, said: “Growth in the influence of digital on physical retail has been driven by consumers’ desire to access information on products and services, compare prices and increasingly pay and transact via digital devices. Those retailers that have invested in developing apps may now find that if these are only optimised for use as a separate channel, rather than an integrated part of the shopping experience, they will not be fit for purpose.

“As investment in in-store digital technologies increases, such as mobile payments to facilitate faster, more convenient transactions and beacon technology to track shoppers in-store and deliver personalised messages and promotions, so will the digital influence on the physical environment. Just as physical retailers have benefited from the growth of click and collect, technology investment in-store will increase the number of shop visitors who buy and how much they spend, as well as help join the online and offline worlds.”

The growing importance of click and collect will see £2.5bn in sales this Christmas ordered online and collected in-store. At 45% of all online transactions, this is almost double the level seen in December 2013. However, the click and collect market is fragmenting, with new models emerging, offering more and more convenience through new locations such as train and tube stations, airports and lockers.

Geddes concluded: “There can be little doubt that click and collect will drive footfall in-store this Christmas, but it will be up to retailers to get their strategy and execution right to capitalise upon the opportunity. Increases in sales won’t happen by default; they may require some adjustment of the in-store experience targeting customers that are clicking and collecting. However, the real winners will be those retailers that have invested in adapting their supply chain and warehousing to accommodate these changes in consumer shopping behaviour.”

End

Notes to editors

* This is based on our Digital Influence methodology, which calculates the percentage of retail store purchases where digital technology has played a role.

About Deloitte
In this press release references to Deloitte are references to Deloitte LLP, which is among the country's leading professional services firms.

Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (“DTTL”), a UK private company limited by guarantee, whose member firms are legally separate and independent entities. Please see www.deloitte.co.uk/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of DTTL and its member firms.

The information contained in this press release is correct at the time of going to press.

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