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Deloitte analyses top media trends for 2015
13 January 2015
- In 2015 print will represent over 80 per cent of all book sales globally;
- Direct revenues from short online video clips worth over £3 billion globally;
- Online subscription video on demand (SVOD) will generate around 3 per cent of the £168 billion pay-TV market.
The technology, media and telecommunications (TMT) practice at Deloitte today announces its predictions for the media sector in 2015.
Deloitte found that eBook sales have plateaued and predicts that in 2015, print will represent more than 80 per cent of all book sales worldwide. Sales of paperback and hardcover books were almost three times that of eBooks in 2014*.
Ed Shedd, head of Deloitte’s UK technology, media and telecommunications practice, comments: “Deloitte predicts that eBooks, while popular, are not replacing print. eBook sales have not impacted print books in the same way that digital has affected sales of CDs, print newspapers and magazines. Young people remain as attached to print books, despite their uptake of other digital devices. The debut novel of video blogger Zoella, ‘Girl Online’, with her substantial teenager fan base, sold 20 physical copies for every electronic copy**.
“Bricks-and-mortar booksellers should not consider the resilience of print to be matched by bookshop sales. Online sales of physical books are likely to remain strong. However, bookshops should extol the value of buying print in person. You can browse far more easily, you can appreciate the font, and you can feel the paper. And you can walk out reading the book, rather than having to wait a few days for the book to be delivered.”
This year’s predictions cover a range of other topics, including developments in short online videos and the future of pay-TV:
Short form video: a future, but not the future of television
Deloitte does not predict short form video to overtake traditional, long form television viewing. It estimates these clips should generate 10 billion hours of viewing a month, and revenues of over £3 billion. This compares to traditional television content that will have advertising and subscription revenues worth over £260 billion in 2015, and viewing of 360 billion hours per month.
Neil Allcock, lead media partner at Deloitte, adds: “The most successful video bloggers will generate billions of views. However, the total time spent watching short online video clips, will represent under three per cent of all video (long- and short- form) watched on screens globally.”
Online subscription video on demand
Deloitte forecasts SVOD will generate about £5 billion globally this year, which is only around 3 per cent of the £168 billion pay-TV market. SVOD should not be considered solely as a competitor to pay-TV but more as a complementary service and replacement for DVD box sets. In addition, SVOD players will struggle to match TV broadcasters’ investment in brand new high-end content.
Notes to editors
** YouTube star shakes up bestseller lists, Financial Times, 5 December 2014:
For a full copy of the report (launched on Tuesday, 13th January 2015) with all of the Deloitte predictions please visit www.deloitte.co.uk/tmtpredictions.
The 2015 series of Predictions is the 14th edition of the report and has drawn on internal and external inputs from conversations with member firm clients, contributions from Deloitte member firms’ 7,000 partners and managers specialising in TMT, and discussions with industry analysts as well as interviews with leading executives from around the world.
In this press release references to Deloitte are references to Deloitte LLP, which is among the country's leading professional services firms.
Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (“DTTL”), a UK private company limited by guarantee, whose member firms are legally separate and independent entities. Please see www.deloitte.co.uk/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of DTTL and its member firms.
The information contained in this press release is correct at the time of going to press.
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