Consumer confidence falls for first time this year as rising prices hits one in three consumers

• UK consumer confidence fell by one percentage point in Q3 2021, to -10%, but remains in-line with pre-pandemic levels;
• Confidence in consumers’ level of personal debt and household disposable income fell for second consecutive quarter;
• Sentiment in the state of the economy also fell this quarter, by seven percentage points to -45%, but confidence remains significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels;
• For the first time in the consumer tracker’s ten-year history, net discretionary spending is positive (+2%), boosted by holiday and leisure spending; but
• Discretionary spending set to normalise in Q4, even as consumers start Christmas shopping;
• The Deloitte Consumer Tracker measures UK consumer confidence on a quarterly basis.

Consumer confidence fell by one percentage point in the third quarter of 2021, according to the latest Deloitte Consumer Tracker. Overall confidence was dented by reduced optimism around personal finances, specifically in the level of debt (down two percentage points to -4%) and household disposable income (down nine percentage points to -21%).

Ben Perkins, head of consumer research at Deloitte, commented: “Whilst overall confidence remains at the same level as Q3 2019, thus maintaining pre-pandemic confidence levels which returned last quarter, the end of furlough, removal of universal credit top-ups, and rising inflation have contributed to a quarterly fall for the first time this year.

“However, in an indication that prices in both discretionary and essential categories are also beginning to creep up, 36% of consumers said their overall spending had increased in the last three months. This was primarily driven by rising utility bills and transport spending as more workers returned to offices.”

The Deloitte Consumer Tracker has been measuring UK consumer confidence on a quarterly basis for ten years. The latest analysis is based on responses from 3,185 UK consumers between 17th and 20th September 2021.

Across the individual measures of confidence, the most improved measure was children’s education and welfare, which rose four percentage points in Q3 2021 from the previous quarter. This marked improvement in confidence coincided with schools and universities reopening after the summer holidays.

‘Candidates’ market’ softens falling sentiment on economy

Confidence indicators in both job security, and job opportunities and career progression were also up on the previous quarter, by one and three percentage points respectively, as job vacancies reached a 20-year high.

The current job market has buoyed consumers’ confidence about their own job security, up 11 percentage points from the same period a year ago. Consumers also continue to be confident around job opportunities and career progression, up 16 percentage points from Q3 2020. This positive outlook is shared by businesses, with 29% of CFOs prioritising increased investment in the year ahead.

However, the UK workforce itself remains significantly smaller than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic began, posing additional headwinds to wider supply chain challenges.

Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte, commented: “The dislocation of the last 18 months has created a huge supply-demand mismatch. A year ago the central economic problem was excess capacity and too few jobs; now it is insufficient capacity and too many jobs. With inflation well above its 2.0% target, and likely to rise further, the stage looks set for the Bank of England to raise interest rates by the end of this year.”

Record discretionary spend driven by leisure consumers

Consumers tipped discretionary spending into positive territory in Q3, to +2%, for the first time since the Deloitte Consumer Tracker began ten years ago. Consumer enthusiasm for leisure spending following Q2’s reopening of the economy continued into the third quarter, aided by the reopening of more international borders. Strong spending was seen across almost every leisure subsector, most notably on holidays (short and long), culture and entertainment, and attending live sports events.

With more consumers heading out, in-home leisure and betting and gaming expenditure both decreased from the previous quarter, by three percentage points and one percentage point respectively.

Simon Oaten, partner for hospitality and leisure at Deloitte, said: “Following the reopening of the hospitality sector, hotels and restaurants have quickly found that amid the strong consumer demand, one of the key challenges to its recovery has been staffing.

“Hospitality businesses have been more than twice as likely as other industries to be experiencing challenges in filling vacancies compared with normal expectations for this time of year. This is particularly challenging as these businesses want to put good, personalised customer service at the centre of their post-pandemic offering and the lack of staff hinders this effort.”

Consumers primed to spend early for Christmas

Respondents also indicated that they expect to reduce their spending over the next three months, including over the festive period, from its current peak, with consumers’ discretionary spending in Q4 anticipated to fall by five percentage points compared to Q3. However, this represents a ‘normalisation’ of spending patterns going into the retail sector’s ‘golden quarter’, coming down from second and third-quarter highs.

Perkins added: “Following the cancellation of many Christmas plans last year due to the pandemic, consumers demand remains very strong and many will be looking to make up for missed celebrations. However, consumer behaviours are already reflecting concerns on the availability of some goods, with early birds already making a start on their Christmas shopping to avoid possible disappointment.

“For retailers, an extended Christmas shopping period is in many ways beneficial, spreading demand over a longer period, smoothing peaks and potentially reducing the need for price discounting. In anticipation of ongoing supply chain disruption, some retailers have brought Christmas merchandise to shop floors earlier to ensure consumers can find what they need for the festive period. However, others may be subject to longer-term disruption, potentially creating shortages in more popular party season and gifting categories, including clothing, toys, and furniture.”

-Ends-

Notes to editors

About the research
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker is based on a consumer survey carried out by independent market research agency, YouGov, on Deloitte’s behalf. This survey was conducted online with a nationally representative sample of more than 3,000 consumers in the UK aged 18+ between 19th and 23rd June 2020. Overall consumer confidence is calculated as an aggregate of six individual measures: job security, job opportunities, household disposable income, level of debt, children’s education and welfare, general health and wellbeing. Respondents have been asked their view on the state of the UK economy from Q3 2019.

About Deloitte
In this press release references to “Deloitte” are references to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (“DTTL”) a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity.

Please see deloitte.com/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of DTTL and its member firms.

Deloitte LLP is a subsidiary of Deloitte NSE LLP, which is a member firm of DTTL, and is among the UK's leading professional services firms.

The information contained in this press release is correct at the time of going to press.

For more information, please visit www.deloitte.co.uk

Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited