Insights

Automation of work is benefitting East Anglia

  • 1.0 million East Anglian jobs at high risk of automation, but 1.9 million jobs at medium and low risk
  • Proportion of high-risk jobs fell 9.3% between 2001 and 2015, but low risk jobs grew 28.9% and medium risk jobs grew 15.7% with total net job creation of 306,000.
  • Financial managers, property managers and environmental services managers lead growth in low risk jobs

The automation of work is benefitting East Anglia according to research by Deloitte.

Deloitte analysed ONS labour force data for the period between 2001 and 2015 and matched changes in employment against occupations predicted to be at high, medium and low risk of being automated over the next twenty years*.

The research found that East Anglia currently has 1.0 million jobs in the high risk category, a fall of 9.3% since 2001. However, 1.9 million jobs are in the low and medium risk categories. 1.3million of these are low risk jobs, an increase of 28.9%, and 600,000 are medium risk jobs. Total net job creation in East Anglia between 2001 and 2015 stands at 306,000.

The low-risk, high-skilled occupations that grew the most over these 15 years in East Anglia were waste disposal and environmental managers (up 531%), business and financial managers (up 505%) and property, housing and estate managers (353%). The high-risk, routine occupations that declined were typists and keyboard occupations (down 76%) and tool makers (down 73%).

Nationally, Deloitte calculated that each new job in one of the fastest-growing lower-risk, occupations pays, on average, up to £10,000 more than the high-risk, routine job it replaces. Calculated on a regional basis, Deloitte estimates that the net economic contribution for East Anglia from these jobs was £11.2bn over 15 years.

Paul Schofield, the senior partner for East Anglia, said: “Our work shows the automation of jobs – and a shift from brawn to brains - is well underway in East Anglia, and we are benefitting not losing out.

“In line with the advances in technology and automation we expect to see in the next twenty years, high-risk, routine occupations are being replaced in our local economy. But at the same time, we are seeing good growth in those jobs at less risk of automation, as well as increased economic value.
“East Anglia has a lot going for it.”

“But we cannot be complacent. Business, educators and government must work together to ensure young people enter East Anglia’s workforce with the skills suited to the jobs of tomorrow and those already in work are able to reskill during the careers and continue contributing to the local economy.”

*Probability estimates
Estimates of probability are based on calculations by Michael Osborne and Karl Benedict Frey used in Deloitte’s 2014 report Agiletown: the relentless march of technology and London’s response - which forecasted that 35% of today’s jobs rated as high risk of being automated in the next ten to twenty years.

**Calculations on rises and falls in employment
Estimates of rises and falls in employment are calculated by measuring the predicted change in employment between 2001 and 2015, by occupation, based on linear modelling.

Region-by-region data

Region

Increase in low risk jobs

Increase in medium risk jobs

Increase in high risk jobs

Net job creation

Economic value added (£bn)

South East

46.6%

28.3%

-2.8%

845,000

30.9

London

41.0%

42.3%

1.3%

870,000

30.1

East of England

28.9%

21.8%

-9.3%

306,000

11.2

South West

19.4%

8.5%

-20.6%

256,000

11.2

Scotland

30.7%

20.8%

-4.4%

317,000

10.6

East Midlands

34.8%

22.3%

-11.5%

221,000

8.3

Yorkshire & The Humber

29.7%

21.6%

-11.2%

214,000

7.8

North West

23.6%

16.0%

-12.4%

152,000

6.8

West Midlands

24.5%

22.7%

-14.1%

152,000

6.1

Wales

31.5%

28.6%

0.1%

221,000

6.0

North East

27.1%

26.1%

-5.9%

131,000

4.4

Merseyside

48.4%

31.6%

5.9%

127,000

3.5

Northern Ireland

7.7%

5.0%

-8.7%

135,000

3.4

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