Deloitte CFO Signals™ Survey: CFOs’ Economic Expectations Hit Multiyear Lows Amid Downturn Worries has been saved
Deloitte CFO Signals™ Survey: CFOs’ Economic Expectations Hit Multiyear Lows Amid Downturn Worries
New York, June 25, 2019
- Our 1Q19 survey indicated that 84 percent of CFOs expected a downturn by the end of 2020; this quarter’s findings show that about 80 percent expect a downturn to be mild.
- After rebounding slightly in Q1, CFOs’ own-company optimism dipped this quarter, continuing to sit among its lowest levels in the last three years.
- CFOs express strong external concerns about the impact of U.S. trade policy on global growth. CFOs again note strong internal concerns related to acquiring and retaining talent; and growing concerns about rising labor costs.
Why it matters to CFOs?
Each quarter, CFO Signals tracks the thinking and actions of leading CFOs representing North America’s largest and most influential companies. Since 2010, the survey has provided key insights into the business environment, company priorities and expectations; finance priorities; and CFOs’ personal priorities..
Sliding forecasts of regional economies
In Q2, CFOs’ perceptions of the North American economy declined slightly, with 79 percent of respondents rating current conditions as good (down from 80 percent) and 24 percent expecting better conditions in a year (down from 28 percent last quarter). Perceptions of Europe declined, with 10% viewing current conditions as good and only four percent expecting better conditions in a year. CFOs’ perceptions of China’s economy increased from Q1, with 26 percent indicating current conditions are good (20 percent in Q1); however, only 10 percent expect better conditions in a year (16 percent reported in Q1).
CFOs expectations for a downturn
Almost all surveyed CFOs (97 percent) say they expect a U.S. downturn in the next two years, but they are split on the expected duration. Of those, four in five said they expect any downturn to be mild, and about half of those said they expect a short duration. Less than five percent expect a sharp, prolonged downturn.
Most worrisome risks
Before 2017, CFOs’ top external risks focused heavily on slow economic growth. In 2018, the fear of trade wars/ tariffs was the top external concern of CFOs. This quarter, CFOs again voiced strong concerns about trade policy—especially US-China policy—and even higher concerns than last quarter about political turmoil and gridlock. Regarding internal risks, CFOs’ top concern since Q217 continues to be acquiring and retaining talent.
CFOs’ views on the future performance of the North American, European, and Chinese economies settled around multiyear lows in Q2, and the overwhelming majority expect a downturn within two years. However, there may be a silver lining for businesses and workers—80 percent of CFOs expect any downturn to be mild—an indication that companies are prepared to face the challenges ahead.
With mixed economic indicators in the US and observed slowing in several key economies around the globe, it is understandable that CFOs’ optimism dipped this quarter. At the same time, we continue to see relative confidence across our client base in the underlying fundamentals of the US economy and CFOs are highly focused on acquiring and retaining talent—an important priority for all leaders with such a strong job market in the US.