TMT Predictions 2017

Analysis

Global TMT Predictions 2017

Which trends may disrupt business? How could consumer habits change?

Download the 2018 Global Predictions

The technology, media and entertainment, and telecommunications ecosystem remains as fascinating as ever in 2018. Will augmented reality become mainstream? How will machine learning affect the enterprise? What's the future of the smartphone? Deloitte Global invites you to read the latest Predictions report, designed to provide insight into transformation and growth opportunities over the next one to five years.



Summaries: Global 2018 TMT Predictions

Is there an #adlergic epidemic? Adblocking across media
Deloitte Global predicts that ten percent of North Americans over 18 will be engaged in four or more multiple simultaneous ad blocking behaviors in 2018: we call these people "adlergic." People are adblocking on computers and mobile devices, but are also blocking or avoiding ads using smart TVs, digital video recorders, streaming video on demand and streaming music services. And there are also low-tech ad blocking methods like changing the channel on TV or stations on the radio.
Is there an #adlergic epidemic? Adblocking across media
Augmented reality: on the cusp of reality
Deloitte Global predicts that over a billion smartphone users will create augmented reality (AR) content at least once in 2018, with three hundred million being regular users (creating content monthly) and tens of millions making and sharing content weekly. While AR is not new to 2018, what differs is quality, especially with regard to photo-realism. There is greater precision when identifying surfaces, and superior algorithms enable shadows for scenes lit by the sun or artificial light. The result is more realistic illusion.
Augmented reality: on the cusp of reality
Digital media: the subscription prescription
Deloitte Global predicts that by end-2018, 50 percent of adults in developed countries will have at least two online-only media subscriptions, and by end-2020, the average will have doubled to four. Online-only subscriptions have become more viable and easy to use, thanks to devices that facilitate access to online media subscription services, steadily rising broadband speeds, and ease of signup. Expansion of smartphone screens means that news articles can now be displayed very much like a newspaper column.
Digital media: the subscription prescription
The future of the smartphone: the era of invisible innovation
Deloitte Global predicts that by end-2023 penetration of smartphones among adults in developed countries will surpass 90 percent, a five-percentage point increase on 2018. Indeed, over the next five years the smartphone market should continue to grow in penetration, usage, unit shipments, total value and ASP. Additionally, it will consolidate its position as the primary access to digital service and content.
The future of the smartphone: the era of invisible innovation
Mobile-only: wireless home internet is bigger than you think
Deloitte Global predicts that a fifth of North Americans with internet access will get all of their home data access via cellular mobile networks (mobile-only) in 2018 and that a mixture of cellular and fixed wireless access (FWA) technologies could lead to 30-40 percent of the population relying on wireless for data at home by 2022. The reasons for this are varied: sometimes mobile is the only form of data connection available, especially outside cities. Sometimes factors such as income, age, living alone, or using better and faster networks with bigger monthly data allowances seem to play a role.
Mobile-only: wireless home internet is bigger than you think
Fasten your seatbelts: in-flight connectivity takes off
Deloitte Global predicts that in 2018 one billion passenger journeys (about a quarter of all passengers), will be on planes equipped with in-flight connectivity (IFC), enabling data and, where permissible, voice communications. This is a 20 percent increase on 2017. It should be more popular and lucrative than ever in 2018, thanks to the rising number of routes covered, higher connection speeds and greater data capacity per flight.
Fasten your seatbelts: in-flight connectivity takes off
Live thrives in an online world
Deloitte Global predicts that live broadcast and events will generate $545 billion in direct revenues in 2018, a one percent increase on the previous year. The vast majority of live revenues are forecast to come from traditional sectors, with the remainder from live streaming, and eSports. Live TV and radio broadcasting is expected to generate 72 percent of all revenues in 2018, with the largest component being broadcast TV, with $358 billion from advertising and subscriptions. Almost all live revenues are being generated by traditional formats, but new genres, primarily live streaming and eSports, are enjoying surging revenue, with China likely to remain the largest market for live streaming in 2018.
Live thrives in an online world
Hitting the accelerator: the next generation of machine-learning chips
Deloitte Global predicts that by the end of 2018 over 25 percent of all chips used to accelerate machine learning (ML) in the data center will be FPGAs (field programmable gate arrays) and ASICs (application-specific integrated circuits). These new kinds of chips should dramatically increase the use of machine learning, enabling applications to consume less power and at the same time become more responsive, flexible, and capable.
Hitting the accelerator: the next generation of machine-learning chips
Machine learning: things are getting intense
Deloitte Global predicts that in 2018 large and medium enterprises will intensify their use of machine learning (ML). The number of implementations and pilot projects using the technology will double compared to 2017, and will double again by 2020. Further, with enabling technologies such as ML APIs and specialized hardware available in the cloud, these advances will now be available to small as well as large companies.
Machine learning: things are getting intense
Smartphones are useful, but they can be distracting
Deloitte Global predicts that in 2018, 45 percent of global adult smartphone users will worry they are using their phones too much for certain activities, and 65 percent of 18-24 year olds will feel the same, contrary to expectations that younger users are oblivious to their phone habits. Both young and old are actually quite happy with using their phones a lot—even hundreds of times per day. They are focusing instead on controlling usage when it is distracting them from activities they would prefer to concentrate on.
Smartphones are useful, but they can be distracting
The kids are alright: no tipping point in T.V. viewing trends for 18-24 year-olds
Deloitte Global predicts that traditional TV viewing by 18-24 year olds will decline by 5-15 percent per year in the US, Canada and the UK for both 2018 and 2019. But while annual declines are predicted to be in this wide range, it is also possible that declines will be at the lower end of the zone as the impact of the forces that distracted young people from traditional TV start to weaken.
The kids are alright: no tipping point in T.V. viewing trends for 18-24 year-olds

How accurate were the 2017 Predictions?

    Summaries: Global predictions 2017

    Prints charming: biometric security reaches the billions

    Prints charming: biometric security reaches the billions. Deloitte Global predicts that the active base of fingerprint-reader-equipped devices will top one billion for the first time in early 2017. There are multiple private and public organizations which should consider how best to exploit the growing base of fingerprint readers and the large number of individuals who have become accustomed to using them on their phones.

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    DDoS attacks enter the terabit era

    DDoS attacks enter the terabit era. Deloitte Global predicts in 2017, Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attacks, a form of cyberattack, will become larger in scale, harder to mitigate and more frequent. Over the past few years, it has been a game of cat and mouse in which neither side has become too powerful, but this might change in 2017 due to the abundance of insecure IoT devices and the fact that large-scale attacks which exploit IoT devices' vulnerabilities have become simpler to execute.

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    Safety first: the road to self-driving starts with a stop

    Safety first: the road to self-driving starts with a stop. Deloitte Global predicts that by 2022, annual US motor vehicle fatalities could fall by 6,000. Although there are other motor vehicle safety technologies that are likely to contribute to this reduction, the single greatest factor will be automatic emergency braking (AEB) technologies.

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    5G: a revolution in evolution, even in 2017

    5G: a revolution in evolution, even in 2017. The technology building blocks for 5G readiness are being deployed in 2017, and in some markets are already in place. 5G is likely to have a big bang impact. Its long fuse, which incorporates interim milestones in the forms of LTE-A and LTE-A Pro, has already been lit. While 5G is a significant, complex upgrade to 4G, it is not a single-step upgrade from the first release of 4G, but rather the culmination of many years of sustained upgrades to 4G networks.

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    Brains at the edge: machine learning goes mobile

    Brains at the edge: machine learning goes mobile. In 2017, over 300 million smartphones will have on-board neural network machine-learning capability. This functionality will enhance applications including indoor navigation, image classification, augmented reality, speech recognition and language translation even where there is little or no cellular or Wi-Fi connectivity, such as in remote areas, underground or on an airplane. Where there is connectivity, on-board machine learning may allow tasks to be done better and faster, or with more privacy.

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    The great indoors: the final frontier for digital navigation

    The great indoors: the final frontier for digital navigation. By 2022, at least a quarter of all uses of precision digital navigation will include an indoor leg or be for an entirely indoor journey. Growth will be stimulated by sustained improvements in the accuracy of indoor navigation over the medium term. Precise indoor navigation's potential is significant, is likely to benefit most vertical sectors, and have impacts on government, businesses and consumers alike.

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    TV advertising in the US: flat is the new up

    TV advertising in the US: flat is the new up. Deloitte Global predicts that US TV advertising revenue in 2017 will be flat with 2016. For an industry widely thought to be following the sharply negative trend of other traditional media, flat is the new up. Although traditional TV advertising is not growing as rapidly as it used to and is losing share to digital, it still remains an important advertising medium.

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    Have we reached peak tablet?

    Have we reached peak tablet? In 2017, we predict that sales of tablets will be fewer than 160 million units, suggesting that we have passed the peak demand for these devices. Tellingly, there is no dominant compelling use case for these devices. Across a range of online activities, tablets have their fans, but there is no single activity where tablets are the preferred device.

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    Vinyl: the billion-dollar nostalgic niche

    Vinyl: the billion-dollar nostalgic niche. Deloitte Global predicts that vinyl will continue its resurgence and may approach $1 billion globally in revenues for the first time this millennium. Today, for many buyers, the record has become a collectible, a memento, a proudly physical format and an expression of individuality in an increasingly digital world.

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    IT-as-a-Service: the half trillion dollar 'niche'

    IT-as-a-Service: the half trillion dollar 'niche'. Deloitte Global predicts that by the end of 2018, spending on IT-as-a-Service will be just under $550 billion worldwide. For many enterprises, large and small, IT-as-a-Service is appealing for several reasons. It avoids significant capital expenditures and provides a predictable expense based on actual use which is easily scaled up or down, based on business needs.

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