Deloitte Insights delivers proprietary research designed to help organizations turn their aspirations into action.

DELOITTE INSIGHTS

  • Home
  • Spotlight
    • Weekly Global Economic Outlook
    • Top 10 Reading Guide
    • Fostering Well-Being
    • Cyber Risk
    • Resilience
  • Topics
    • Strategy
    • Economy & Society
    • Operations
    • Workforce
    • Technology
  • Industries
    • Consumer
    • Energy, Resources, & Industrials
    • Financial Services
    • Government & Public Services
    • Life Sciences & Health Care
    • Technology, Media & Telecom
  • More from Deloitte Insights
    • About
    • Deloitte Insights Magazine
    • Press Room Podcasts
Deloitte.com
Deloitte Insights logo
  • SPOTLIGHT
    • Weekly Global Economic Outlook
    • Top 10 Reading Guide
    • Fostering Well-Being
    • Cyber Risk
    • Resilience
  • TOPICS
    • Strategy
    • Economy & Society
    • Operations
    • Workforce
    • Technology
  • INDUSTRIES
    • Consumer
    • Energy, Resources, & Industrials
    • Financial Services
    • Government & Public Services
    • Life Sciences & Health Care
    • Technology, Media & Telecom
  • MORE FROM DELOITTE INSIGHTS
    • About
    • Deloitte Insights Magazine
    • Press Room Podcasts
  • Welcome!

    For personalized content and settings, go to you My Deloitte Dashboard

    Latest Insights

    In a competitive labor market for retail workers, sustainability programs could give employers an edge

    Article
     • 
    5-min read

    A framework for managing an extended and connected workforce

    Article
     • 
    2-min read

    Recommendations

    Government Trends 2023

    Article

    Navigating toward a new normal: 2023 Deloitte corporate travel study

    Article
     • 
    17-min read

    About Deloitte Insights

    About Deloitte Insights

    Deloitte Insights Magazine, Issue 31

    Magazine

    Press Room Podcasts

    Podcasts

    Topics for you

    • Business Strategy & Growth
    • Leadership
    • Operations
    • Marketing & Sales
    • Diversity, Equity, & Inclusion
    • Emerging Technologies
    • Economy

    Watch & Listen

    Dbriefs

    Stay informed on the issues impacting your business with Deloitte's live webcast series. Gain valuable insights and practical knowledge from our specialists while earning CPE credits.

    Deloitte Insights Podcasts

    Join host Tanya Ott as she interviews influential voices discussing the business trends and challenges that matter most to your business today. 

    Subscribe

    Deloitte Insights Newsletters

    Looking to stay on top of the latest news and trends? With MyDeloitte you'll never miss out on the information you need to lead. Simply link your email or social profile and select the newsletters and alerts that matter most to you.

Welcome back

Still not a member? Join My Deloitte

In an uncertain economy, does fresh produce spoil revenue growth?

by Barb Renner, Brian Baker, Curt Fedder, Jagadish Upadhyaya
  • Save for later
  • Download
  • Share
    • Share on Facebook
    • Share on Twitter
    • Share on Linkedin
    • Share by email
2 minute read 18 February 2020

In an uncertain economy, does fresh produce spoil revenue growth? The future of fresh

2 minute read 18 February 2020
  • Barb Renner United States
  • Brian Baker United States
  • Curt Fedder United States
  • Jagadish Upadhyaya India
  • Jagadish Upadhyaya India
  • Save for later
  • Download
  • Share
    • Share on Facebook
    • Share on Twitter
    • Share on Linkedin
    • Share by email

​Regardless of the economic cycle, people need to eat. As such, produce is a resilient fresh-food category.

Currently, consumers are showing strong interest in fresh fruits and vegetables, thereby helping provide ample growth opportunities for companies in the fresh food ecosystem.1 But, with mixed economic signals heading into 2020, a question arises: Does fresh produce spoil revenue growth? In periods of economic expansion (as experienced in recent years), consumers tend to allocate more dollars to premium products. However, spending can wane due to economic uncertainty.


Methodology: To address this question, we analyzed the US Consumer Expenditure Surveys data2 for produce. We compared it to processed food, alcohol, and nonfood categories (apparel and fashion, health care, and entertainment). We examined CAGR from 1995 to 2017, comparing growth during periods of economic expansion vs. recession.
 

Learn more

Explore the conusmer products and retail collection

Learn about Deloitte’s services

Go straight to smart. Get the Deloitte Insights app

Our analysis reveals a nuanced picture. Overall, from 1995 to 2017, consumer expenditures on produce grew 1 percent CAGR. Growth also occurred in alcohol, apparel and fashion, entertainment, and processed food. Of note, only health care (at 2 percent) exceeded these categories (see figure).3

During the Great Recession of 2007–2010, only fresh fruits and vegetables and health care grew (1.4 percent each). Beginning in 2011, most categories rebounded to pre-Recession levels. However, produce and health care not only came back, but far exceeded pre-Recession levels (at 2.3 percent and 4 percent, respectively).

During the 2000–2001 recession, all categories experienced similar fluctuations. And while fresh fruits and vegetables declined 3.1 percent, it was likely due to the nascency of health and wellness trends which became more prevalent starting in 2010.4

Regardless of the economic cycle, people need to eat. Our analysis reveals that, people are not going to give up their fruits and vegetables during a downturn economy. Indeed, produce is more resilient than both the food and nonfood categories examined. In addition, the segment has kept pace with the health care sector.

The solid growth of produce is likely supported by two factors. First, by evolving efficiencies in supply chain processes that have led to produce being offered at a lower cost to the consumer.5 Second, by consumers’ growing interest in health and wellness.

Fresh foods are the primary driver of growth in retail stores, accounting for 49 percent of all dollar sales growth in the fast-moving consumer goods sector.6 Strong upside potential exists for fresh produce due to not only consumer demand, but also increased distribution in convenience stores,7 quick serve restaurants,8 retail pharmacies,9 and several hospital systems experimenting with “food pharmacies” that link the importance of diet with health. With projected growth of 2.4 percent through 2023,10 produce may represent an attractive proposition for everyone in the fresh food ecosystem as a hedge during periods of economic uncertainty.

To learn more, please see our recent study, The future of fresh: Strategies to realize value in the fresh food category.

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Kavita Saini, manager, Deloitte Support Services India Pvt. Ltd.

Cover image by: Viktor Koen

Endnotes
    1. Barb Renner et al., The future of fresh: Strategies to realize value in the fresh food category, Deloitte Insights, November 12, 2019. View in article

    2. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Expenditure Surveys,” accessed January 29, 2020. View in article

    3. Healthcare in the Consumer Expenditure Surveys includes expenses on health insurance, medical services, drugs, and medical supplies. See: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Healthcare,” accessed January 29, 2020. View in article

    4. Statista, “Per capita consumption of fresh fruit in the United States from 2000 to 2018 (in pounds),” accessed January 29, 2020. View in article

    5. The Network Effect, “Fixing the 5 big problems in the food supply chain,” September 4, 2018. View in article

    6. Russell Redman, “Fresh foods power growth in fast-moving consumer goods,” Supermarket News, June 15, 2018. View in article

    7. Nima Rajan, “Convenience stores that offer healthy food and drink options see strong sales growth,” Xtalks, July 18, 2018. View in article

    8. Carol M. Bareuther, “Five QSR menu trends: More fresh produce,” Produce Business, August 27, 2019. View in article

    9. Amanda Schupak, “New York City is giving out prescriptions for free fruits and vegetables,” HuffPost, August 13, 2019.   View in article

    10. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Expenditure Surveys.” View in article

Show moreShow less

Topics in this article

Retail & Distribution , Revenue Growth , Customer & Marketing

Consulting Services for Consumer Products

​The consumer products industry today faces virtually unprecedented challenges and opportunities. Eroding brand loyalty, increased merger and acquisition activity, enduring recessionary consumer attitudes and the rising influence of digital technologies on shopping behavior all threaten traditional business models–but also give rise to new and exciting ones. In the face of changing consumer needs and behaviors, Deloitte’s Consumer Products team is working with clients to strengthen analytics, improve internal operations and develop new market-facing capabilities and channels. With experience across a wide range of sectors–including food and beverage, personal and household goods, agribusiness, apparel and footwear, and household durables–we position our clients to lead in the face of change.

Learn more
Get in touch
Contact
  • ​Barbara L. Renner
  • Partner
  • Deloitte Tax LLP
  • brenner@deloitte.com
  • +1 612 397 4705

Download Subscribe

Related content

img Trending

The future of fresh

Article 3 years ago
img Trending

Augmented shopping: The quiet revolution

Article 3 years ago
img Trending

2022 Deloitte holiday survey

Interactive 11 months ago

Explore more on cosumer products and retail

  • The consumer products bifurcation Article4 years ago
  • Spotlight on the cloud Article4 years ago
  • Spotlight on digital reality Article4 years ago
  • Asian consumer outlook Article4 years ago
  • Spotlight on artificial intelligence Article4 years ago
Barb Renner

Barb Renner

Vice Chair & US Leader | Consumer Products

Barb is vice chair and the US Consumer Products Leader, Deloitte LLP. She has more than 31 years of professional experience serving large multinational clients through a variety of leadership roles. Barb works directly with consumer and industrial product clients focusing on their regulatory environment, supply chain, technology and processes, and other issues and opportunities. She has also served in key leadership roles with Deloitte’s Women’s Initiatives and Junior Achievement.

  • brenner@deloitte.com
  • +1 612 397 4705
Brian Baker

Brian Baker

Managing Director | Retail and Consumer Goods

Brian is a managing director in Deloitte’s Retail and Consumer Goods practice, Deloitte Consulting LLP. His experience includes process design and evaluation, program assessments, systems implementation, managed services, and value delivery programs. Brian’s career experience covers multiple retail areas including: inventory management, procurement of both perishable and non-perishable goods, replenishment/allocation, promotional planning, pricing, third-party logistics, and import procurement. In addition, Brian has more than 15 years of store management experience, focusing on perishable departments. Brian has worked with leading national and regional grocery retailers in the areas of process redesign, supply chain solution implementation, SAP, and JDA software packages. He has additional experience with direct store delivery, scan-based-trading, open-to-buy management, hard lines, importing, and store operations.

  • brianbaker@deloitte.com
  • +1 785 580 8812
Curt Fedder

Curt Fedder

Senior Manager | Deloitte Services LP

Curt is a senior manager at Deloitte Services LP’s Center for Industry Insights and leads market research for consumer products. With expertise in consumer research, and a focus on brand equity, customer satisfaction, and advertising. Curt has led consumer research groups in consumer products and retail organizations. He has published articles in the Journal of Advertising Research and Quirks Marketing Research, and presented at market research industry conferences.

  • cfedder@deloitte.com
  • +1 312 486 3710
Jagadish Upadhyaya

Jagadish Upadhyaya

Research & Insights Manager – Consumer Products | Deloitte

Jagadish Upadhyaya is a manager at Deloitte Support Services' Consumer Industry Center and supports research for the consumer products sector. He has over 15 years of experience conceptualizing and designing research projects, project management, and advanced statistical analysis. Upadhyaya has rich experience writing high-impact thought leadership backed by detailed research and analytics. He has led client-specific multidisciplinary market research teams focusing on the analysis of real-time market data and identifying trends in the consumer products and retail space.

  • jupadhyaya@deloitte.com
  • +91 99890 22430

Share article highlights

See something interesting? Simply select text and choose how to share it:

Email a customized link that shows your highlighted text.
Copy a customized link that shows your highlighted text.
Copy your highlighted text.

In an uncertain economy, does fresh produce spoil revenue growth? has been saved

In an uncertain economy, does fresh produce spoil revenue growth? has been removed

An Article Titled In an uncertain economy, does fresh produce spoil revenue growth? already exists in Saved items

 
Forgot password

To stay logged in, change your functional cookie settings.

OR

Social login not available on Microsoft Edge browser at this time.

Connect Accounts

Connect your social accounts

This is the first time you have logged in with a social network.

You have previously logged in with a different account. To link your accounts, please re-authenticate.

Log in with an existing social network:

To connect with your existing account, please enter your password:

OR

Log in with an existing site account:

To connect with your existing account, please enter your password:

Forgot password

Subscribe

to receive more business insights, analysis, and perspectives from Deloitte Insights
✓ Link copied to clipboard

Deloitte Insights delivers proprietary research designed to help organizations turn their aspirations into action.

Deloitte Insights

  • Home
  • Topics
  • Industries
  • About Deloitte Insights

Spotlight

  • Weekly Global Economic Outlook
  • Top 10 Reading Guide
  • Fostering Well-Being
  • Cyber Risk
  • Resilience
Deloitte logo

Learn about Deloitte’s offerings, people, and culture as a global provider of audit, assurance, consulting, financial advisory, risk advisory, tax, and related services.

  • Privacy
  • Terms of Use
  • Cookies
  • Avature Privacy