How does the country grow? Behind the Numbers, June 2014

Due to a combination of relatively high birthrates and international net migration rates, the US population is growing slightly faster than the average for the industrialized nations in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Although some countries in the group of industrialized nations are growing much faster than the OECD average and the United States (e.g., Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom), populations of other countries (e.g., Germany, Italy, and Japan) are actually flat or declining.¹ Positive population growth may confer a variety of benefits, such as allowing a country to maintain a healthier balance between the number of workers and the number of retirees.

Looking within the United States, at its regions and states, there is substantial variation in the degree to which areas are growing due to natural increase (births minus deaths) and international migration. Furthermore, there is another aspect to population change that shapes the internal distribution of the US population: domestic migration—the movement of people between regions and states. There are many different reasons for internal shifts: changes in employment trends, retirement relocations, and the myriad consequences of these types of moves, particularly for local and state governments as they adjust revenue and spending to reflect the changing realities of their population profiles.² This post provides a statistical overview of the sources of population change that shaped the population profiles of US regions and states as they emerge from the depths of the Great Recession.

Overview

Between 2010 and 2013, the US population grew by 7.4 million people or 2.4 percent, with almost two-thirds of the change coming from natural increase and the remainder coming from positive net international migration. The additional factor that comes into play when considering the population change of regions and states is domestic migration. As shown in table 1, while there are differences between the natural rates of change stemming from different age distributions of the resident populations of the various regions of the United States, there are also substantial and sometimes offsetting contributions from the two migration categories. Specifically, while the Northeast had the largest proportional gain from international migration, the Northeast and Midwest regions lost sizable population as people relocated to the South and West between 2010 and 2013. This negative net domestic migration contributed to the population of these two regions growing more slowly than the country as a whole.

Table 1: Cumulative estimates of the components of US population change

April 1, 2010–June 1, 2013

Source: US Bureau of the Census³

Northeast region

The Northeast is home to the only two states that lost population between 2010 and 2014, Maine and Rhode Island, and all states in this region had negative net domestic migration during this period. Massachusetts was the fastest growing state in the region, with population growth near the US average (2.2 percent to the national growth rate of 2.4 percent) as higher-than-average international migration was able to offset lower-than-average natural increases and a small negative net domestic migration. In the case of Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York, international migration provided almost exact offsets for the negative net domestic migration (see table 2).

Table 2: Cumulative estimates of the components of state population change in the Northeast region

April 1, 2010–June 1, 2013

Source: US Bureau of the Census

Midwest region

The slowest growing of all the regions, the Midwest, does contain two states that are among the fastest growing in the country: North and South Dakota (see table 3). These are also two states with substantial net domestic migration. No state in this region attracts significant international migration relative to population size, and except for the two states noted above, all other states in this region have negative net domestic migration.

Table 3: Cumulative estimates of the components of state population change in the Midwest region

April 1, 2010–June 1, 2013

Source: US Bureau of the Census

South region

The South barely beat out the West as the fastest-growing region of the country in terms of population between 2010 and 2013. Among the fastest growing are the District of Columbia, Florida, and Texas, and each of these benefited from substantial domestic migration (see table 4). Florida also had a relatively high rate of international migration, as did Maryland and Virginia. The District of Columbia and Texas also benefited from high rates of natural increase. West Virginia is the only state other than Maine where deaths exceeded births between 2010 and 2013. The only states in the South with negative net domestic migration were Kentucky, Maryland, and Mississippi.

Table 4: Cumulative estimates of the components of state population change in the South region

April 1, 2010–June 1, 2013

Source: US Bureau of the Census

West region

With population growth only slightly slower than the South, the West is home to the most populous state in the country, California. All states in the West grew faster than the nation on average except for New Mexico. Utah had the country’s highest proportional increase in population due to births, and with a relatively low numbers of deaths, it had the largest proportional gain due to natural increase (see table 5). The largest gainers from international migration on a proportional basis were California, Hawaii, and Washington. States losing population as a result of negative net domestic migration were Alaska, California, Hawaii, and New Mexico.

Table 5: Cumulative estimates of the components of state population change in the West region

April 1, 2010–June 1, 2013

Source: US Bureau of the Census