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Global payments remade by COVID-19

Scenarios for the global payments ecosystem

How will the COVID-19 pandemic accelerate or redirect the global payments industry over the next three to 12 months? And how might payments industry leaders prepare for this evolution? Explore four scenarios that global payments companies and resilient leaders should consider to help them identify opportunities, recover, and ultimately thrive in the world remade.

Uncovering the four scenarios for resilient leaders

In the wake of COVID-19, Deloitte and Salesforce hosted a dialogue among renowned scenario thinkers to consider the potential societal and business impacts of the pandemic. The results of this collaboration can be found in “The World remade by COVID-19: Scenarios for resilient leaders.”

This report is intended to spark insight and help identify opportunities as payments industry leaders seek to understand potential implications of COVID-19. It outlines actions that resilient leaders can take over the next three to 12 months to help enable long-term success for their people and organisation.

Global payments remade by COVID-19

Why use scenario thinking for the global payments industry?

Although we are in uncharted waters, scenario thinking can help leaders prepare for a future no one can predict and clarify the potential implications of their choices. And as governments across the globe start to reopen their economies, business leaders should shape their “recover” strategies even in the face of uncertainty.

Building on several payments trends already in motion, the four scenarios are built on important macro and payments industry uncertainties, both already evident and others potentially plausible based on the severity of the pandemic and government actions.

These scenarios target the global payments industry, which in many cases includes consumer payments and commercial payments in different geographies. We chose to focus on the next three to 12 months on the assumption that this time frame is long enough that change is possible, but close enough that it matters to executives today.

As you read this document, challenge yourself to imagine how things you were sure were going to happen could now be on a different course. Avoid the temptation to conclude that the crisis will accelerate the changes you already expected or believed were inevitable or that the scenarios are truths or future payment forecasts.

Two critical uncertainties will drive the overall impact of COVID-19:

  • What is the overall severity of the pandemic and pattern of disease progression?
  • What is the level of collaboration within and between countries?

Explore four possible scenarios for the global payments industry

Four distinct scenarios emerge based on current trends and critical uncertainties. They are summarised below, and more details can be found in our full report:

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What might recovery look like across the global payments industry?

Advance your global payments organisation in the world remade

For an in-depth discussion of the four scenarios, impacts on the payment ecosystem, and 12 no-regret decisions that can enable success across scenarios, download the full PDF perspective.

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