Mid-point check-in before COP28: where are we now?

Post COP27 and ahead of COP28

The 10-day UN Bonn Climate Change Conference marked the midpoint between COP27, which took place in November 2022 and COP28, which will take place in November 2023). The Bonn Conference is the annual UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) negotiation between the COPs (Conference of Parties), also known as the 58th Subsidiary Bodies (SB58) session.

Many organisations left COP27 with concerns and disappointment due to the limited progress in various key areas. SB58 was where groundwork was laid for negotiations ahead of COP28 which is when the first Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement is set to conclude.

 

Key outcomes from the Bonn Conference

Negotiations took place at SB58, with an aim to advance technical progress ahead of COP28, with commendable progress achieved in various negotiation tracks:

• Global Stocktake: SB58 wrapped up the technical phase of the 1st Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement, which brought together private sector and civil society stakeholder groups, to take stock of the progress made and identify gaps and actions needed going forward.
• Technology: progress was made on strengthening the links between the UNFCCC Technology Mechanism and Financial Mechanism, with a workshop to be hosted in 2024 to explore areas of further links, after limited progress in the past years of negotiations.
• Article 6: focused on market and non-market approaches, an ambitious programme of work of Article 6.2 and 6.4 of the Paris Agreement was agreed upon, although there’s a long way to go to fully operationalise Article 6.
• Harassment: long overdue progress was made on eliminating harassment, including sexual harassment, especially given the difficult experiences of many delegates at COP27. Thanks to the advocacy of progress member states and civil society stakeholders, relevant wording on harassment is included in a draft COP decision for the first time, after pushback from certain member states.

 

On the other hand, several UN organisations and various civil society stakeholders have expressed their concerns on certain outcomes, including:

• Consensus on including mitigation on the agenda was only reached two days before the closing of SB58, after lengthy debate.
• Various civil society stakeholders expressed their concerns about the progress on finance, adaptation (especially related to finalising the Global Goal on Adaptation), and Loss and Damage.
• Not all member states were on board with recognising the critical importance of scientific research by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

 

COP28 outlook – can we keep 1.5°C alive?

There’s considerable attention from NGOs and businesses on the COP28 Presidency to demonstrate leadership, especially as many critical agenda items are planned to conclude at COP28, including the first Global Stocktake and the Global Goal on Adaptation.

• Global Stocktake: the conclusion of the 1st Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement at COP28 is expected to catch headlines, after two years of technical and political processes. Ensuring the active participation of non-state actors in the political phase of the Global Stocktake is critical for achieving ambitious outcomes, which will inform the forthcoming update of Nationally Determined Contributions towards achieving the Paris Agreement goals.
• Mitigation: the message from countless civil society stakeholders and businesses is clear – mitigation cannot be left behind, especially given the growing momentum on fossil fuel phase out.
• Global Goal on Adaptation: COP28 will also be a key moment for adaptation, as the Global Goal on Adaptation is planned to be finalised, aiming to speed up attention and action on adaptation.
• Loss and Damage: after the historical achievement of establishing the Loss and Damage Fund at COP27, progress is needed ahead of COP28 on operationalising the fund, besides appointing the suitable hosts of the Santiago Network on implementation.
• Finance: with 17 agenda items set to be negotiated, finance negotiations will include key issues related to the Article 2.1(c) of the Paris Agreement, New Collective Quantified Goal, and more. Much attention is also expected to fall on the international financial system reform, including on additional private finance mobilisation, in line with our Deloitte paper in collaboration with the Africa investor Group.
• Nature: outside of technical negotiations, COP28 aims to have a considerable focus on nature. There’s unprecedented attention from NGOs and businesses on building synergies between climate, biodiversity, and nature actions, as well as building stronger linkages between UN conventions on related issues, for example, through a joint work programme on nature.
   

_{About the author: Cathy Li is from Deloitte’s ESG Advisory team in London. In her personal capacity, Cathy has been representing various non-state actor constituencies in UNFCCC processes since she was a teenager, besides serving as a Youth Advisor of six UN bodies, IUCN Climate Crisis Commission Deputy Chair, and previously COP26 OneStepGreener Ambassador.}