2015 Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions
Our objective with this report is to analyze the key market developments over the next 12-18 months. Our points of view are built around hundreds of meetings with industry executives and commentators from around the world, as well as our proprietary programs of research with tens of thousands of consumers worldwide. Our endeavor is to provide a considered point of view on key industry trends. In some cases we seek to identify the drivers behind major inflection points and milestones, such as the first billion-unit year for the smartphone sector, or the take-off of contactless mobile payments. Arguably the bigger challenge in making predictions about the TMT sector is not about forecasting what technologies will emerge or be enhanced, but in how they will be adopted. 3D printing offers a factory in every home, yet it is enterprise that is driving spend. The Internet of Things (IoT) offers us the capability to remote control multiple aspects of our lives from our smartphones, but we expect companies to reap most of its value in 2015.
The viewpoints / key findings
- The Internet of things really is things, not people – In 2015, over 60 percent of the one billion global wireless IoT devices will be bought, paid for and used by enterprises - despite media focus on consumers controlling their thermostats, lights, and appliances (ranging from washing machines to tea kettles). The IoT-specific hardware is predicted to be worth $10 billion, but the big story is the enterprise services enabled by the devices: about $70 billion.
- Drones: high-profile and niche – Drones offer fantastic possibilities for enterprises and consumers, and will be used for an increasingly diverse range of observation applications. But it is unlikely that in there will be a surge in demand for UAVs, such that they become a mass market (multiple millions of units) global market.
- 3D printing is a revolution: Just not the revolution you think – In 2015 nearly 220,000 3D printers will be sold worldwide, with a dollar value of $1.6 billion, but it is unlikely that there will be a “factory in every home.” Deloitte Global estimates about 80 percent of the value of all 3D printers will be for companies instead of consumers, meaning the real revolution will be in the enterprise market.
- Smartphone batteries: better but no breakthrough – Longer battery life is likely to remain a key factor for consumer’s choosing their next smartphone. The rechargeable, lithium ion (Li-Ion) battery technology used in all smartphones will improve only modestly in 2015, with no more than 5 percent greater unit charge or milliampere hours (mAh) compared to a 2014 model of the same dimensions and voltage.
- The re-enterprization of IT – In 2015, the pendulum of technology adoption will begin to swing back to the enterprise market, reversing a decade long trend that went the other way - when mass adoption of technologies like large screen smartphones and tablets started with consumer adoption first.
- Short form video: a future, but not the future, of television –The total time spent watching online short-form video clips and other programming of less than 20 minutes in length, will represent less than 3 percent of all video seen in the year globally. Deloitte Global does not expect short-form online content to usurp long-form traditional television. It is a future, but not the future, of screen-based entertainment; and Deloitte Global predicts it is unlikely ever to be the predominant video format, as measured by hours watched or revenues.
- The ‘generation that won’t spend’ is spending a lot on media content – North American Millennials will lead the way in 2015 and spend an average of $750 per person for content, both traditional and digital. What are Millennials spending on? Pay TV, music, computer games, books, live sports, streaming video, and even print newspapers.
- One billion smartphone upgrades – 1.35 billion smartphones will sell worldwide in 2015, but over a billion of them will be upgrades – new phones for those who already have one. The upgrade cycle may be lengthening, but screen size, speed, storage, software and design will continue to drive growth for smartphone refreshes.
- The connectivity chasms deepen: the growing gap in broadband speeds – Globally, the number of homes with broadband Internet will grow by about 2 percent to 725 million, and average broadband speeds in most countries will increase by 20 percent. The gap between those with access to the fastest broadband speeds and those on basic speeds will continue to widen in 2015, providing a varied experience from home to home, especially for high bandwidth applications like streaming video. All broadband is equal…but some is more equal than others.
- Contactless mobile payments (finally) gain momentum – The end of 2015 will mark the tipping point for the use of mobile phones for in-store payments around the world. It will be the first year in which the multiple prerequisites for mainstream adoption – satisfying financial institutions, merchants, consumers and device vendors – have been sufficiently addressed. In 2015, about 10 percent of the base of smartphones worldwide will be used to make an in-store payment at least once a month, compared to less than half a percent (led by early adopters in Japan) of about 450 million smartphones in mid-2014.