Predictions
TMT Predictions 2016
Mobile payments in China: offline payment a new battleground
"Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions 2016" reveals the perspectives gained from hundreds of conversations with industry leaders, and tens of thousands of consumer interviews conducted across the globe. Our objective with TMT Predictions is to identify critical inflection points that we believe can inform strategic thinking in the industry, and to explain the impact these points can have over the next 12-18 months for companies in Technology, Media, Telecommunications (TMT), and other industries.
Technology
Mobile payment in China: offline payment a “battleground”
Mobile payment will reach new heights in China in 2016, and show the following trends: the offline mobile payment industry chain will be highly integrated, intelligent solutions for the industry will be more comprehensive, development will focus on the consumer end, and cross-border competition will intensify.
Touch commerce: the mobile online checkout gets an express lane In 2016, the number of individuals who use a third party touch-based payment service to make a purchase on their mobile devices should increase by 150%, reaching 50 million regular users. The type of third party touch-based payment service that is linked to the device's operating system should represent the majority of touch-based payments made in 2016. |
Graphene in China: “Bounding” graphene industry in China
China has achieved initial industrialization in less time than most other countries. With capacity to realize the initial industrialization of graphene production in 5 years, graphene can develop into an industry that generates billions in revenue by 2020.
Graphene: can China become a global leader in the commercialization of graphene technology? Graphene has superior property and great potential. In 2016, the total market value of graphene materials is likely to be in low tens of millions USD, China holds positive view about which, while other countries hold conservative views. Whether Chinese graphene market can realize great development remains to be seen. |
Cognitive technologies in China: the rise of intelligent manufacturing and intelligent services
In 2016, progress in techniques and expanded demand for space will enhance the influence of cognitive technology for production enterprises that are in the business of intelligent manufacturing and services.
Cognitive technologies enhance enterprise software By the end of 2016, more than 80 of the world's 100 largest enterprise software companies by revenues will have integrated cognitive technologies into their products. By 2020, about 95% of the top 100 will have incorporated one or more cognitive technologies. |
Media
Virtual reality in China: B front grows steadily, C front is starting out
VR development is more mature in the B-end market than the C-end, it is forging steadily ahead in the B-end market, but just starting out in the C-end.
Virtual reality: a billion dollar niche Virtual reality (VR) should have its first billion dollar year in 2016, with about US$700 million in hardware sales, and the remainder from content. Its revenue is forecasted to keep increasing in the following years, and it should realize billions of dollars in the middle term. |
Film in China: a golden age
China's movie industry in 2020 will reach a 200 billion level, and it will surpass North America as the world's largest market in box office revenue and admissions.
The award for stable box office revenues in the face of digital media goes to… The value of movie theater admissions in the US and Canada will fall by about 3% in 2016, to about US$10.6 billion, with about 1.3 billion tickets sold. The annual revenue growth in the near-term will be about 1%, but within a range of plus or minus 10%, and the number of tickets sold should decline about 1% per year. |
TV in China: Innovation and Integration
In 2016, China TV opening rate, audience rating, and advertising share gradually declined in the face of new media. The traditional TV industry should seek scenario, extension, and platform integration for better development.
US TV: erosion, not implosion The U.S. traditional television market, the world's largest at about US$170 billion in 2016, will see slow, stable and predictable erosion, but not implosion. |
Football in China: Chinese Super League on the rise
Chinese Super League market value in 2016 is expected to reach ¥3.4 billion, up about 40% from 2015, which will help improve the league.
European football scores $30 billion The European football market is expected to generate US$30 billion in revenues in 2016 and 2017, with a compound annual growth rate of 7%. The five largest leagues should generate US$17 billion, 58% of the total revenue, and broadcast revenue is forecasted to generate the majority of total revenues in both 2016 and 2017. |
Telecommunications
Gigabit broadband in China: encouraging the fusion between telecommunication and the broadcasting system
Among broadband subscribers, 50% have connection speeds of 20 MBPS and above in 2016, and 80% had speeds of 8 MBPS and above. Integration between telecom and broadcasting is expected, as is cooperation to confront the challenges presented by OTT service.
The Gigabit Internet age is upon us, and every bit counts The number of extreme-speed, Gigabits per second (Gbit/s) Internet connections will surge to 10 million by year-end, a tenfold increase. The 10 million subscribers would represent a small proportion of the 250 million customers likely to be on networks capable of Gigabit connections by the end of 2016. We forecast that by 2020 around 600 million subscribers may be on networks that offer a Gigabit tariff, representing the majority of connected homes in the world. |
Used mobile phones in China: large stock with upcoming changes
87 million used mobile phones will be sold outright or traded directly in China in 2016, and that number should eclipse 100 million for the first time by 2018, generate ¥30 billion in total market value, and keep increasing year by year.
Used smartphones: the $17 billion market you may never have heard of In 2016 consumers will sell outright or trade in about 120 million used smartphones, generating more than US$17 billion for their owners. Used smartphones represent an increasing share of the market: about 7% of total smartphone sales by units in 2016. |
VoLTE in China: breaking business model bottleneck is imperative
After solving internet and hardware problems, carriers still face the challenges of establishing business models.
VoLTE/VoWiFi: capacity, reach, and capability About 100 carriers worldwide will be offering at least one package that includes voice over internet protocol service by the end of 2016, and we estimate that around 300 million customers will be using VoWiFi or VoLTE, double the number at the start of this year. |
Photo sharing in China: tapping into the value of steps after photo taking
Photo management links social networks, uploads to cloud storage, and sharing to enhance user stickiness, which collectively extends the value of taking photos.
Photo sharing: trillions and rising In 2016, 2.5 trillion photos will be shared or stored online, a 15 percent increase over the previous year, and we estimate that over 90% of these photos will be taken with a smartphone. |
