Article
Future of Air Cargo
2025
It’s 2015. The air freight segment is a core component of our logistics world. But will it stay that way? Even in ten years’ time the industry could look quite different. What will be transported by air, and where will the hot spots of the global economy be? Will the traditional operators have been overwhelmed by the competition? Let us dive into the future.
Center for the Long View - The future of Air Cargo 2025
Imagine you are a global airfreight company
You are facing the challenge of making strategic decisions.
- How will goods be transported in 15 years’ time?
- What routes will be flown?
- What kind of aircraft will be used?
- Which freight terminals should be built?
- Who will be the most important customers?
- What are the future drivers in the airfreight industry?
- What are the future drivers in the airfreight industry?
What are plausible scenarios for the future?
Scenario 1: The emerging countries are booming
The price of crude oil is low. Economic development in Europe is stable; growth is stagnating at a high level. International hubs are growing, above all at selected hot spots in emerging countries. The airfreight industry is looking for M&A opportunities in these new markets and is investing.
Scenario 2: e-Commerce dominates
In particular, customers expect fast delivery of their orders. New technologies such as 3D printing are meet these expectations without the help of the air freight industry. For all other products, efficient and integrated logistics companies are the winners. Consolidation processes are emerging in the airfreight industry – only cost-efficient companies with strong partnerships are surviving.
Scenario 3: Regional conflicts are paralyzing the world
Protectionism and regional conflicts are increasing. The crude oil price is at an all-time high. Providers with a focus on a few, economically strong regions are the winners. The airfreight industry is adjusting to the new challenges – reducing costs, specializing in regional customer requirements, and investing in security and new infrastructure.
Scenario 4: Globalization is retreating
The global economy is stagnating and growth in many industries is declining. A new Cold War and the re-emergence of trade barriers are aggravating the tense economic situation. Customers prefer local products – either for reasons of environmental protection or out of patriotism. Only a few air carriers are flexible enough to meet this challenge.
Building on these scenarios, we can help our customers to prepare for different futures in the airfreight industry.
Whatever it looks like – the future is yours to manage!
