Future of Migration

Which future drivers influence our society when it comes to the topic of 'flight and migration'? What needs to be considered? How should we behave and act? To get an answer to these questions we developed scenarios with the help of selected future drivers.

Center for the Long View - Future of Migration (EN)

What are plausible scenarios for the future?

Scenario 1: Development union

The international community is pursuing a joint, long-term development strategy with the aim of co-operating to overcome both regional and global challenges. The core of the efforts in the field of flight and migration is to combat the causes of fight in the countries of origin.

Scenario 2: Development puzzle

All attempts to pursue a common international development strategy have failed. International cooperation has failed due to conflicts of interest on political and economic issues. States want to polish their individual image and international cooperation is being exploited for foreign policy positioning. As a result, supra-regional problems have to be overcome in small projects with many different partners.

Scenario 3: The breakdown of development work

Internal political interests characterize development work. Most projects are carried out on a bilateral basis, which makes long-term oriented international development cooperation more difficult. Above all, domestic policy, public opinion, and the media determine the direction of commitment in the areas of flight and migration. Public visibility and pragmatism are therefore the top priority in the choice of projects, which means that above all partnerships with emerging countries with a high domestic policy relevance shape development work.

Scenario 4: Development marketing

Due to internal political influences, project cycles are shortened and the focus moves to publicly effective initiatives with quick and measurable successes. Solutions for flight and migration are developed within the framework of global conferences, which, however, are dominated by domestic policy agendas. Discussions are focused on distribution issues and measures with short-term effects and high visibility, such as first aid in national contexts.


Whatever it looks like – the future is yours to manage!

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