Point de vue

Russia - Ukraine crisis consequences on the Aerospace & Defense sector

On Feb. 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, starting a war whose impact has stretched globally into various geopolitical and economical dimensions. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has received harsh criticism internationally, and resulted in the reinforcement of international sanctions, from the US, EU, UK, and Japan. In response to these sanctions, Russia implemented extensive retaliation measures, especially regarding its gas exports towards Western Countries.

Consequences on Aerospace and Defense sectors are multiple, highly connected to the geopolitical developments and outcomes of this crisis, and complex ripple or snowball effects from other industries can have major impacts on A&D players’ Global Supply Chain and Logistic & Transportation Systems. Currently daily developments of both battlefields and negotiations move-on in an almost Brownian way, making any deterministic predictions irrelevant.

Therefore, developing resilient strategies for A&D players should rather be based on the analysis of scenarios addressing a wide array of future possibilities to get a holistic view on the situation, and well understand the short-, medium- and long-term impacts of this crisis on Global Geopolitics, Global Economy and A&D business.

Key A&D players, should consequently try to answer the following questions:

What are the key drivers, and signposts or events that can trigger disruptive events strongly impacting the Global Geopolitics, Economics and A&D sector?
Which elements are certain (“Certainties”) and which ones are not (“Uncertainties”), and what are the rough likelihood of those uncertainties?
What are scenarios, built on “Certainties” as strong foundations, and covering the whole range of “Uncertainties”, allowing to build resilient and well-informed strategies? How should Leaders drive their strategic thinking in such a fuzzy context.