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2015 Global aerospace and defense industry outlook
Growth for commercial aerospace; defense decline continues
The global commercial aerospace sector is expected to sustain its significant revenue and earnings growth in 2015, underlined by extended record-setting production levels both at the platform and in the supplier base. This growth is likely to be driven primarily by increased production rates due to the accelerated replacement cycle of obsolete aircraft with next generation fuel-efficient aircraft, as well as the continued increases in passenger travel demand, especially in the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region.
On the other hand, continued declines in revenues are expected for the global defense sector. The United States defense budget is a key driver of this decline, as sales revenues lag outlays, appropriations and budget authorizations, despite calls for increases in defense spending. The cessation of a prolonged period of armed conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan and budget cuts were the key factors over the last three years. It is still uncertain as to how regional tensions in the Middle East, North Korea, and the East and South China Seas will potentially lead to increased defense budgets. The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, India, South Korea, Japan, China, Russia, and other affected governments have and are expected to continue to increase purchases of next generation military equipment.