Local industry - The impact of Covid-19

Executive summary

The outbreak of COVID-19 has necessitated the implementation of stringent policy measures, setting off a global economic crisis of unprecedented magnitude.

As part of Deloitte’s commitment to support our clients, we have implemented a COVID-19 recovery framework to help businesses and governments navigate these extremely uncertain times. This framework consists of three facets: Respond (how to react to the crisis); Recover (how to position for a potential rebound); and Thrive (how to ensure success in the post-COVID-19 world).

Making the right decision at the right time has never been more important than now, and good decisions are based on good information. While nobody can be certain about what the future holds, it is important to consider what the future could look like so that we can make the best decisions for society, for our organisations, and for our families today.

In light of this extraordinary uncertainty, we suggest that leaders take a scenario planning approach to their strategic decisions. Such an approach is particularly helpful in the current climate of extreme volatility and elevated uncertainty regarding the future. Scenario-based strategic planning, when executed against a range of plausible future pathways, allows organisations to prepare for various outcomes, helps executives identify key decision points, and positions the organisation to take advantage of opportunities during an eventual recovery.

Such exercises will be made more valuable by having a better understanding of the possible channels of impact from the health and economic crisis. With this in mind, Deloitte Southeast Asia’s Economics Advisory team has developed a high-level framework to help clients think through the channels of impact on the economy and on different industries.

This document presents the high-level results of the framework being applied to Singapore, taking into account the specific circumstances of its economic structure and the characteristics of each industry. The results reflect the unfolding of one scenario—one of the possible economic pathways as the COVID-19 crisis evolves—for the Singapore and global economies, designed around three key variables:

1. The effectiveness of the public health response and public compliance
2. The effectiveness of government economic support
3. Global economic conditions

This scenario is not a prediction about what will happen, but it represents hypotheses about what could happen and what could be the effect on different industries. This document serves as a starting point to help businesses and policymakers think through the potential implications for your organisations and economies. It is designed to frame planning discussions.

Business and governments have managed Respond, but in order to make strategic decision on how best to Recover and Thrive, scenario planning remains an indispensable tool.

Topics covered in this report include:

1. Towards recovery
2. The channels of impact on economic activity
3. The framework for Impact-Readiness
4. The effect on Singapore’s industries
5. How Deloitte can help

Please download the report to learn how we can assist you.