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Economic Perspectives – Articles

2018

Late Converger Stall: Is India facing an imminent threat?

The year 2017 may be remembered specifically for market disruptions on account of a) liquidity concerns post demonetization and b) uncertainty following the implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) regime. 

India before the Budget

In the coming year, an anticipated improvement in agriculture sector and infrastructure push will possibly aid the recovery process. Supported by an expected rise in government expenditure, private rural consumption will likely drive growth while private investment may build up through infrastructure push and global demand improvements.

New challenges emerge with growth on the mend

Over last year, the domestic growth momentum has remained muted due to internal challenges even as the global economy rebounded. This year the narrative has changed and the domestic economy will face a broader mix of headwinds that will need to be tackled effectively to maintain growth momentum.

Managing Risks: Key to setting the stage for a brighter 2018

The last year can be thought of as a year of transition wherein we had some major reforms with an ongoing attempt to affect consumer behavior. Growth in the country is likely to have slowed down but it still remained one of the fastest growing nations in the world. That said, while the domestic economy is in recovery mode, the current year will possibly put the focus back on structural issues such as inflation and the external account.

Indian Economy in 2018: Rising deficits to finance growth?

The recent data on GDP/GVA growth in Q3 of FY 2017-18 has again revived expectations that the deceleration in the economic activity because of GST and demonetization may have bottomed out. Some of this good news is also mirrored in the data on corporate earnings as well as other high frequency data.

India’s growth story expected to continue despite short-term disruptions

India’s growth narrative over the last year can be defined by significant structural changes which may be regarded as partially responsible for the ongoing market uncertainty and short-term growth pains. These reforms, by their very nature, are targeted to have long-term growth impact and recovery under this scenario will predictably take time.

A push to macro-economic fundamentals but no quick fixes to growth

Over the last few months, India’s faltering growth performance has attracted considerable focus especially when some of the major economic factors continued to be positive like high liquidity, healthy inflows leading to all time capital market highs, improving foreign exchange reserves, and decent monsoons. Even the latest RBI policy maintained that there is an upside risk on inflation while expecting lower growth rates.

Skilling, Automation and Ageing Population to define the Indian Landscape

The Indian economy is underway a paradigm shift defined by changing global economic and political environment. Importantly, the economy has witnessed a growing inclination towards digitization and automation which is likely to have implications for the expanding population.

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