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Economic Perspectives – Articles

2018

Will the build-up in crude oil prices put India’s growth under stress?

India has long benefitted from lower crude oil prices, especially as energy demand has seen considerable rise with rapid economic growth. The southward movement in crude oil prices started during the latter part of 2015 on account of rapid expansion in unconventional sources, shift in OPEC policy, and changing market sentiments.

Upside inflationary risks: May see interest rate hardening by year end

As anticipated, the Reserve Bank of India mainted “status quo” on key interest rates with a cautious note on rising inflationary pressures. Since the announcement of the last monetary policy meeting, significant changes have been observed in the domestic and the international environment.

Economy gaining traction: However inflationary pressures likely to take effect

In its lastest policy review, the Monetary Policy Committee mainted “status quo” on key interest rates with a cautious note on rising inflationary pressures. Since the announcement of the last monetary policy meeting, significant changes have been observed in the domestic and the international environment. 

India Economic Outlook: March 2018

The year 2017 was marked by a number of key structural initiatives to build strength across macro-economic parameters for sustainable growth in the future. The growth in the first half of the year suffered despite global tailwinds. However, the weakness seen at the beginning of 2017, seems to have bottomed out as 2018 set in. 

Know your budget 2018: Growth on the mend

While the world packed its punch growing at the fastest pace in five years, India's economy temporarily "decoupled" with growth decelerating to a four-year low to 6.75% in FY 2017-18, according to official estimates.

Pre-budget expectations survey: Growth expected to pick over the next quarters

The responses of this survey has been collected from approximately 120 professionals. On the whole, the survey has a mood of cautious optimism with the Indian businesses enthusiastic about the reforms but wanting to have an environment of easier compliances and audit processes.

Late Converger Stall: Is India facing an imminent threat?

The year 2017 may be remembered specifically for market disruptions on account of a) liquidity concerns post demonetization and b) uncertainty following the implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) regime. 

India before the Budget

In the coming year, an anticipated improvement in agriculture sector and infrastructure push will possibly aid the recovery process. Supported by an expected rise in government expenditure, private rural consumption will likely drive growth while private investment may build up through infrastructure push and global demand improvements.

New challenges emerge with growth on the mend

Over last year, the domestic growth momentum has remained muted due to internal challenges even as the global economy rebounded. This year the narrative has changed and the domestic economy will face a broader mix of headwinds that will need to be tackled effectively to maintain growth momentum.

Managing Risks: Key to setting the stage for a brighter 2018

The last year can be thought of as a year of transition wherein we had some major reforms with an ongoing attempt to affect consumer behavior. Growth in the country is likely to have slowed down but it still remained one of the fastest growing nations in the world. That said, while the domestic economy is in recovery mode, the current year will possibly put the focus back on structural issues such as inflation and the external account.

Indian Economy in 2018: Rising deficits to finance growth?

The recent data on GDP/GVA growth in Q3 of FY 2017-18 has again revived expectations that the deceleration in the economic activity because of GST and demonetization may have bottomed out. Some of this good news is also mirrored in the data on corporate earnings as well as other high frequency data.

India’s growth story expected to continue despite short-term disruptions

India’s growth narrative over the last year can be defined by significant structural changes which may be regarded as partially responsible for the ongoing market uncertainty and short-term growth pains. These reforms, by their very nature, are targeted to have long-term growth impact and recovery under this scenario will predictably take time.

A push to macro-economic fundamentals but no quick fixes to growth

Over the last few months, India’s faltering growth performance has attracted considerable focus especially when some of the major economic factors continued to be positive like high liquidity, healthy inflows leading to all time capital market highs, improving foreign exchange reserves, and decent monsoons. Even the latest RBI policy maintained that there is an upside risk on inflation while expecting lower growth rates.

Skilling, Automation and Ageing Population to define the Indian Landscape

The Indian economy is underway a paradigm shift defined by changing global economic and political environment. Importantly, the economy has witnessed a growing inclination towards digitization and automation which is likely to have implications for the expanding population.

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