Green wings: India’s SAF revolution in the making

India’s aviation sector is forecast to grow at ~11 percent over the next few years due to infrastructure development, aircraft capacity addition, increasing Tier 2/3 connectivity and evolving passenger preferences for air travel. India’s demand for Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) will also grow in line with growing passenger and freight traffic. Additionally, with the Indian government’s push for electrification in road transportation, the share of aviation in India’s transport emissions is likely to double from the current ~5 percent to 8 to 10 percent by 2030.

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has introduced the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) scheme to limit aviation emissions to 85 percent of 2019 levels, necessitating decarbonisation efforts in the sector.

Globally, aviation decarbonisation can be achieved through multiple levers such as operational improvement, hydrogen fuel, electric aircraft, SAF, etc. Operational improvement initiatives, which have helped the aviation sector substantially reduce fuel consumption in the last two decades, can deliver only a limited impact in the future. New technologies such as hydrogen fuel and electric aircraft are still in nascent stages. And the forecast for any meaningful and commercial-scale deployment is only after 2040. As a result, SAF is emerging as a key decarbonisation lever expected to contribute between 53 percent and 66 percent in achieving the net-zero targets for the aviation sector.

India currently accounts for ~2.5 percent of the global ATF demand. Given India’s abundant feedstock for SAF and high exposure to exports for ATF (50 percent of ATF produced being exported), India is well-positioned to capitalise on the rising global demand for SAF. Thus, while India’s potential capacity for SAF production is significant, multiple interventions are required to realise its potential fully. A strategic focus on SAF would strengthen India’s leadership in the aviation sector as it transitions toward more sustainable practices, and concerted efforts are required from all ecosystem stakeholders. This includes establishing a clear and long-term regulatory roadmap, formalising SAF feedstock supply chains, creating ecosystem partnerships, institutionalising financial incentives and transparent pricing mechanisms, and identifying certification agencies to fast-track investments.

We hope this report, compiled through a series of deep conversations with key industry leaders in India and across the globe, presents you with real insights and actionable takeaways. As you explore it, we hope it inspires action and fosters the collective ambition required to navigate the complexities of this journey.

Together, we can propel the aviation sector into a new era of sustainability, ensuring that the skies remain a symbol of progress and opportunity for future generations.

Per Deloitte India report, “Green wings: India’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) revolution in the making,” India could produce 8–10 million tonnes of SAF annually by FY40. Investments worth INR6–7 lakh crore (US$70–85 billion) would be required to realise the projected SAF production. It will give impetus to the aviation sector's decarbonisation efforts, reducing carbon emissions to 20–25 million tonnes annually.

The report indicates that an 8–10 million tonnes production would surpass India's estimated domestic demand of 4.5 million tonnes for a 15 percent blending mandate in 2040 across all flights. It could also position India as a leading SAF exporter serving global markets.