Global Powers of Retailing 2019

The global economy is currently at a turning point. Until early 2018, there had been a confluence of positive events including relatively strong global economic growth, low inflation, low borrowing costs, easy monetary policy in major markets, recovery in troubled emerging markets, and rising asset prices. Yet something changed in 2018. Growth decelerated in Europe, China, and Japan; inflation accelerated in major markets; borrowing costs increased as major governments embarked on a shift in monetary and fiscal policies; global equity and commodity prices fell; and major emerging markets experienced significant currency depreciation. The shift in the global economy was, in part, brought on by a change in policy in the United States (US). There, a combination of easier fiscal policy, tighter monetary policy, and restrictive trade policy contributed to a change in the direction of the global economy. For retailers, this change will mean slower consumer spending growth, higher consumer prices, and disrupted global supply chains. In what follows, we will examine how the global economy is likely to unfold, and the potential implications this will have on the retailing industry.