Flattening the curve: Impact on the Indian banking and capital market industry

The global COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as a “black swan” event and will require extraordinary measures from governments across the globe to re-ensure economic stability.

Globally, the pandemic has infected thousands of people in at least 190 countries and territories, according to the World Health Organization. As the immediate containment of the virus requires firm measures of quarantine and isolation, this has disrupted world economy in an unprecedented way.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has halved the global gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for 2020 due to the virus outbreak. Based on when the pandemic is likely to come under control, several economic scenarios indicate global recession of varying magnitudes.

The Indian banking and capital markets sector will have to deal with the crisis in a manner never seen before. With the thrust on ensuring business continuity/contingency plans, this sector need to emerge as responsible institutions and ensure the safety and security of their employees, customers, and the society.

This note provides a brief overview of the impact that the pandemic is expected to have on the banking and capital markets sector, and recommendations related to “flattening the curve” for these institutions that could help support the industry to find resilience during this period as well as be prepared for faster recovery.