Forces of Change

The entire way people and goods travel from point A to point B is changing, driven by a series of converging technological and social trends: the rapid growth of carsharing and ridesharing; the increasing viability of electric and alternative powertrains; new, lightweight materials; and the growth of connected and, ultimately, autonomous vehicles.

The extended auto ecosystem's various elements are coalescing to realize that dream sooner than expected, which means that incumbents and disruptors need to move at top speed to get on board.

Skepticism persists and uncertainty abounds, but we have seen surprising agreement that a fundamental shift is driving a move away from personally owned, driver-driven vehicles and toward a future mobility system centered around (but not exclusively composed of) driverless vehicles and shared mobility.

Given this dynamic and changing environment, many questions remain:
•  How quickly will the future arrive, and how sweeping will the changes be?
•  What will the new ecosystem look like, and how will it operate?
•  Where will value be created and captured?
•  How should an organization transform its strategy, business model, product portfolio, and capabilities to succeed?

This paper aims to advance the collective thinking around answering these questions. It extends our initial perspectives and incorporates new insights and analyses gained from an extensive and ongoing dialogue with most of the key players driving these changes. Ultimately, we hope this paper provides a roadmap of sorts, helping stakeholders determine where to play and how to win.