Private Equity Confidence Survey Central Europe

Growing Confidence

For over 20 years, the Deloitte Central European (CE) Private Equity (PE) Confidence Survey Index has reflected the sentiment of on-the-ground deal-doers around conditions for transactions.

Even if 2023’s activity levels remain subdued, fundraises amidst a challenging backdrop as well as a number of lucrative exits have underlined the ability of the region’s experienced PE houses to invest and harvest across cycles. The latest Survey marks a third-consecutive semester of increasing confidence, only the third time our Index has recorded such sustained growth.

Central European Private Equity Index: Key findings

There is positive sentiment around the economic backdrop, with a near tripling of those expecting conditions to improve to 42%. Equally encouraging is a halving of those expecting the backdrop to worsen (to 20%, down from 40% in Summer 2023). In a further sign of confidence, half (49%) of respondents expect transacting to increase in 2024, double last semester’s proportion and up from a low of just 6% in Summer 2022. Furthermore, only 14% expect a decrease in activity, down from a third last semester.

Debt markets are more liquid now than in the last few years, with nearly a third (29%) expecting availability to improve. This is more than double our last Survey, while those expecting liquidity to decrease has reduced dramatically to just 22% in this Survey.

Vendors may have softened their pricing expectations in the last six months, with nearly two-fifths of respondents (38%) feeling pricing had come down in the second half of 2023, slightly more than felt that way in the first half of the year (34%).

Central Europe PE Confidence Index

The Index has continued its rise for a third consecutive semester, landing on a respectable 107. This is important as it marks only the third time in the Survey’s 20+ year history that it has climbed for so long, with the other periods of sustained growth commencing in late 2008 and late 2012. All three recoveries followed a sharp decline. Notably the decline preceding the latest recovery was as steep as the dips in 2008 and 2012, but the current recovery is more gradual.

This steadier climb may suggest a more cautious optimism among deal-doers, many of which now have over two decades of experience in navigating economic cycles and challenging backdrops. It may mean they apply more pragmatism to improving conditions, and are better placed than ever to steer portfolios and drive new investment decisions to accelerate growth in Central Europe’s most promising businesses.