ECB: Most of the economies will not return to their previous performance peaks until late 2022

A new working paper issued by the ECB presents the COVID-19 recovery and recession forecasting. The document reports that most of the countries have already entered into deep economic crisis and will not return to their previous performance peaks until late 2022.

A rationale to build forecast adjustments for the COVID-19 crisis on the Great Recession lies in similarities between the two downturns. Thus, the ECB believes that the performance of nowcasting models during the Great Recession could be informative for the COVID-19 crisis.

This article provides further insight on simple methods that can improve the nowcasts and forecasts specifically during the COVID-19 crisis and recovery period.