Viewing offline content

Limited functionality available

Dismiss
United States
  • Services

    What's New

    • The Ripple Effect

      Real-world client stories of purpose and impact

    • Register for Dbriefs webcasts

    • We Are Deloitte

      Reimagining how we support our people

    • Tax

      • Tax Compliance and Reporting
      • Tax Legislation
      • Tax Operate
      • Tax Technology Consulting
      • Mobility and Payroll
      • Workforce, Technology, and Analytics
      • Reward, Employment Tax, and Equity Compensation Plans
      • Legal Business Services
    • Consulting

      • Core Business Operations
      • Customer & Marketing
      • Enterprise Technology & Performance
      • Human Capital
      • Strategy & Analytics
    • Audit & Assurance

      • Audit Innovation
      • Accounting Standards
      • Accounting Events & Transactions
    • Deloitte Private

    • Mergers & Acquisitions

      • Total M&A Solution
      • Post-merger Integration
      • Divestiture & Separation
    • Risk & Financial Advisory

      • Accounting & Internal Controls
      • Cyber & Strategic Risk
      • Regulatory & Legal
      • Transactions and M&A
    • AI & Analytics

    • Cloud

    • Diversity, Equity & Inclusion

  • Industries

    What's New

    • The Ripple Effect

      Real-world client stories of purpose and impact

    • Register for Dbriefs webcasts

    • Industry Outlooks

      Key opportunities, trends, and challenges

    • Consumer

      • Automotive
      • Consumer Products
      • Retail, Wholesale & Distribution
      • Transportation, Hospitality & Services
    • Energy, Resources & Industrials

      • Industrial Products & Construction
      • Mining & Metals
      • Oil, Gas & Chemicals
      • Power, Utilities & Renewables
    • Financial Services

      • Banking & Capital Markets
      • Insurance
      • Investment Management
      • Real Estate
    • Government & Public Services

      • Defense, Security & Justice
      • Federal health
      • Civil
      • State & Local
      • Higher Education
    • Life Sciences & Health Care

      • Health Care
      • Life Sciences
    • Technology, Media & Telecommunications

      • Technology
      • Telecommunications, Media & Entertainment
  • Insights

    Deloitte Insights

    What's New

    • Deloitte Insights Magazine

      Explore the latest issue now

    • Deloitte Insights app

      Go straight to smart with daily updates on your mobile device

    • Weekly economic update

      See what's happening this week and the impact on your business

    • Strategy

      • Business Strategy & Growth
      • Digital Transformation
      • Governance & Board
      • Innovation
      • Marketing & Sales
      • Private Enterprise
    • Economy & Society

      • Economy
      • Environmental, Social, & Governance
      • Health Equity
      • Trust
      • Mobility
    • Organization

      • Operations
      • Finance & Tax
      • Risk & Regulation
      • Supply Chain
      • Smart Manufacturing
    • People

      • Leadership
      • Talent & Work
      • Diversity, Equity, & Inclusion
    • Technology

      • Data & Analytics
      • Emerging Technologies
      • Technology Management
    • Industries

      • Consumer
      • Energy, Resources, & Industrials
      • Financial Services
      • Government & Public Services
      • Life Sciences & Health Care
      • Technology, Media, & Telecommunications
    • Spotlight

      • Deloitte Insights Magazine
      • Press Room Podcasts
      • Weekly Economic Update
      • COVID-19
      • Resilience
      • Top 10 reading guide
  • Careers

    What's New

    • Our Purpose

      Exceptional organizations are led by a purpose. At Deloitte, our purpose is to make an impact that matters by creating trust and confidence in a more equitable society.

    • We Are Deloitte

      Reimagining how we support our people

    • The Deloitte University Experience

      Explore Deloitte University like never before through a cinematic movie trailer and films of popular locations throughout Deloitte University.

    • Careers

      • Audit & Assurance
      • Consulting
      • Risk & Financial Advisory
      • Tax
      • Internal Services
      • US Delivery Center
    • Students

      • Undergraduate
      • Advanced Degree
      • Internships
    • Experienced Professionals

      • Additional Opportunities
      • Veterans
      • Industries
      • Executives
    • Job Search

      • Entry Level Jobs
      • Experienced Professional Jobs
      • Recruiting Tips
      • Explore Your Fit
      • Labor Condition Applications
    • Life at Deloitte

      • Life at Deloitte Blog
      • Meet Our People
      • Diversity, Equity, & Inclusion
      • Corporate Citizenship
      • Leadership Development
      • Empowered Well-Being
      • Deloitte University
    • Alumni Relations

      • Update Your Information
      • Events
      • Career Development Support
      • Marketplace Jobs Dashboard
      • Alumni Resources
  • US-EN Location: United States-English  
  • Contact us
  • US-EN Location: United States-English  
  • Contact us
    • Dashboard
    • Saved items
    • Content feed
    • Subscriptions
    • Profile/Interests
    • Account settings

Welcome back

Still not a member? Join My Deloitte

Change is in the air

by Aijaz Hussain, Vincent Rutgers
  • Save for later
  • Download
  • Share
    • Share on Facebook
    • Share on Twitter
    • Share on Linkedin
    • Share by email
Deloitte Insights
  • Strategy
    Strategy
    Strategy
    • Business Strategy & Growth
    • Digital Transformation
    • Governance & Board
    • Innovation
    • Marketing & Sales
    • Private Enterprise
  • Economy & Society
    Economy & Society
    Economy & Society
    • Economy
    • Environmental, Social, & Governance
    • Health Equity
    • Trust
    • Mobility
  • Organization
    Organization
    Organization
    • Operations
    • Finance & Tax
    • Risk & Regulation
    • Supply Chain
    • Smart Manufacturing
  • People
    People
    People
    • Leadership
    • Talent & Work
    • Diversity, Equity, & Inclusion
  • Technology
    Technology
    Technology
    • Data & Analytics
    • Emerging Technologies
    • Technology Management
  • Industries
    Industries
    Industries
    • Consumer
    • Energy, Resources, & Industrials
    • Financial Services
    • Government & Public Services
    • Life Sciences & Health Care
    • Tech, Media, & Telecom
  • Spotlight
    Spotlight
    Spotlight
    • Deloitte Insights Magazine
    • Press Room Podcasts
    • Weekly Economic Update
    • COVID-19
    • Resilience
    • Top 10 reading guide
    • US-EN Location: United States-English  
    • Contact us
      • Dashboard
      • Saved items
      • Content feed
      • Subscriptions
      • Profile/Interests
      • Account settings
    6 minute read 03 June 2019

    Change is in the air The elevated future of mobility: What’s next on the horizon?

    6 minute read 04 June 2019
    • Aijaz Hussain United States
    • Vincent Rutgers United States
    • Save for later
    • Download
    • Share
      • Share on Facebook
      • Share on Twitter
      • Share on Linkedin
      • Share by email
    • Introduction
    • The eVTOL evolution
    • Navigating the disruption ahead
    • Conclusion

    ​Hybrid-electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles have the power to transform the air traffic ecosystem. Learn about the challenges aerial transport faces and how companies can take advantage of new opportunities.

    Introduction

    A century ago, aviation pioneer Glenn Curtiss debuted the autoplane, a three-seat car-cum-aircraft with removable wings.1 Ever since, automobile and aviation enthusiasts have dreamed of “flying cars” that can reduce trips that take hours on the ground to minutes in the air, improving productivity and quality of life.

    Learn More

    Explore the Future of Mobility collection

    Read about Regulating the Future of Mobility

    Discover the Aerospace & Defense collection

    Subscribe to receive related content from Deloitte Insights

    After decades of failed projects and false starts, a new class of vehicle is finally emerging that could to turn these dreams into reality by transforming the way people and cargo are moved in cities. To provide insight into this rapidly progressing space, Deloitte recently published a five-part series on the elevated future of mobility. The findings and implications are summarized in this paper.

    Almost two years ago, Deloitte published Elevating the future of mobility, its initial view on a new class of aircraft that promises to revolutionize inter- and intra-city mobility.2 These aircraft, generally known as electric or hybrid-electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles, have the potential to improve the future of elevated mobility by moving people and cargo more quickly, quietly, and cost-effectively than traditional helicopters. In the initial paper, several challenges and/or barriers that would need to be overcome before seeing the wholesale adoption of eVTOL aircraft were identified (see figure 1).

    Elevated future of mobility challenges

    In a series of articles, the barriers to an elevated future of mobility have been highlighted, with recommended approaches provided for surmounting them. Through this process, we have come to view regulations as a subset of a holistic air traffic management system. The safety of eVTOLs will depend on eVTOL vehicle maturity, ground infrastructure, and the air-traffic management system.

    The eVTOL evolution

    Much has happened in just the last two years in the eVTOL journey. To tell a complete and timely story, here is a summary highlighting the main findings of the five Deloitte articles published, updating them where appropriate:

    1) Elevating the future of mobility3: Through the cumulative efforts of eVTOL manufacturers, operators, and other key stakeholders, elevated mobility will likely become a reality over the next decade. Despite challenges, manufacturers have begun testing vehicles; ecosystem participants are collaborating on developing a robust regulatory framework; and technology is advancing swiftly.

    Deloitte’s initial review focused on the movement of people, but over the course of our research, it became apparent that the movement of cargo is just as important. In fact, it will likely drive the early adoption of eVTOL aircraft. Similarly, while the initial focus has been on the end goal of fully autonomous vehicles, this under-acknowledges the potential that early eVTOL vehicles will most likely be piloted in order to accelerate commercialization. Overall, there has been rapid progress in the last two years, with many stakeholders believing: “If you build it, they will come.”4

    2) Managing the evolving skies5: As the skies get busier, it is expected to be an ongoing challenge to manage and maintain an increasingly diverse airspace while keeping all air traffic moving safely and efficiently. A key enabler for the future of eVTOLs could be unmanned aircraft system traffic management (UTM), which would have to work in conjunction with existing air traffic management systems.

    This “system of systems” is complicated to establish, but it is being pursued by a diverse group of stakeholders, including eVTOL operators, communication-system service providers, data-service providers, and regulatory authorities. Success depends upon all stakeholders having trust in the essential elements of the air-traffic management system. This will require reliable and available communication, predictable and consistent navigation, and accessible, trusted surveillance. These elements, coupled with tried-and-tested procedures, coordinated teams, redundancy, and continuous training, will be mission-critical in enabling the system to operate reliably and safely.

    3) Psychological barriers to the elevated future of mobility6 : Social acceptance, or overcoming the psychological barriers, are expected to play a major role in shaping the eVTOL industry, as consumers are at the core of the elevated-mobility ecosystem. For this article, Deloitte questioned a global group of 10,000 consumers about their perception of fully autonomous eVTOL aircraft with respect to safety and perceived utility.

    Nearly half of the respondents viewed autonomous aerial passenger vehicles as a potentially viable solution to roadway congestion.7 However, 80 percent of the total either believe that these vehicles “will not be safe” or are currently uncertain that they will be safe.8 eVTOL aircraft can become part of the new mobility ecosystem only when creators and operators convince skeptical consumers that airborne vehicles are both useful and safe. Shaping consumer attitudes will be the joint responsibility of regulators, creators, and operators of this new breed of aircraft.

    4) Technological barriers to the elevated future of mobility9 : Several complex technological issues need to be addressed before air taxis and cargo transports take to the skies. These persistent challenges are primarily related to propulsion, situational-awareness systems, and advanced detection and collision-avoidance systems. While onboard technology is maturing quickly, efficient energy management (including battery capacity, speed of recharging, and cost per kilowatt-hour) remains a limiting factor and is proving to be a difficult challenge to solve. It will likely take a group effort to eliminate the remaining technological barriers to urban air mobility.

    To strengthen collaboration within the ecosystem, participants should develop and work on an integrated framework—spanning manufacturing, operations, and certification—to advance technologies involved in eVTOL aircraft. This framework should provide a structure for encouraging collaboration within the ecosystem, harnessing electric propulsion technology through alliances and partnerships, leveraging advancements in ground autonomy, and investing in cognitive automation capabilities.

    5) Infrastructure barriers to the elevated future of mobility10: Although pilot projects are underway in major cities around the world, the infrastructure necessary to enable large-scale passenger and cargo transportation in urban and suburban areas is not yet in place. The missing pieces include the ground infrastructure (takeoff, landing, and service areas), a robust communication and UTM system, and a seamless mobility operating system. To pave the way for widescale deployment, eVTOL operators and local authorities (such as cities and municipalities) should start identifying feasible locations for components of the ground infrastructure, such as takeoff and landing, charging/refueling stations, parking facilities, maintenance, and contingency landing sites. They should also enlist the help of information technology providers, who can assist in building a well-connected infrastructure, and regulatory authorities, who can assist in designing a policy and control framework that is robust, safe and secure.

    Aerospace manufacturers, automobile companies, and technology start-ups continue to announce new passenger eVTOL vehicles

    Navigating the disruption ahead

    Though eVTOLs have yet to be deployed en masse, a number of successful demonstrations have taken place. This suggests that urban and suburban mobility (inter- and intra-city) may be on the precipice of significant disruption.

    Projected passenger eVTOL development timeline (2020-2030+)

    The emergence of eVTOLs could catalyze transformation across many different areas, with these being particularly pertinent:

    • Air traffic management system: Developing and deploying a new, complete air traffic management system is expected to be key. This system must span airspace allocation and management as well as airworthiness certifications and pilot requirements for unmanned autonomous aerial systems. National governments would need to work together as well as in conjunction with local municipalities to settle upon a common operating concept and establish a universal set of requirements that would allow eVTOLs to be widely deployed. This includes ensuring interoperability with existing air traffic management systems globally.

    • Physical infrastructure: Significant capital would be required to acquire the land/space necessary for building vertiports and other infrastructure components. Extending existing types of public/private partnerships or establishing new models would be required to secure adequate funding. Without this type of collaboration, infrastructure projects may not get off the ground, thus delaying, limiting, or entirely blocking the widescale deployment of eVTOLs.

    • Aircraft development: Current helicopter developers and manufacturers (traditional VTOLs) are at risk of being disrupted, with the implications being similar to those incurred by the automotive sector when new entrants used electrification and autonomous capabilities to re-envision the automobile. Parallels can also be drawn with the taxi and rental car industries when technology companies used apps and geo-location capabilities to reimagine ride-sharing services. The future market for eVTOL aircraft manufactures could be substantial. For example, the estimated market size for the US alone is approximately $17 billion by 204012 (figure 4).

    US passenger eVTOL market size could reach US$17.7 billion by 2040

    Conclusion

    The ecosystem for unmanned aerial transport is vast, with aerospace manufacturers, ride-share companies, and technology startups all playing in this space. While the opportunities are relevant to all participants, the risks appear more pronounced for traditional aerospace companies. Developments in the eVTOL arena point to impending disruption for helicopter manufacturers, who will likely need to rethink their business models and how they capture value. Shifting their focus to the evolving markets for unmanned aerial transport may be an option. At the least, they will need to re-examine their product mixes; production rates; and people, process, and technology requirements, as well as where they should play in the value chain, so they are well-positioned to survive and thrive if the eVTOL market takes off as expected.

    Acknowledgments

    The authors would like to thank Siddhant Mehra, Mimi Lee, Kristen Tatro, and Darlene Fiscus for their contributions to this report.

    Cover image by: Dieter Braun

    Endnotes
      1. Curtiss Autoplane, "Their flying machines," accessed January 3, 2018. View in article

      2. Robin Lineberger, Aijaz Hussain, Siddhant Mehra, and Derek M. Pankratz, Elevating the future of mobility, Deloitte Insights, January 18, 2018. View in article

      3. Ibid. View in article

      4. Caitlin A. Baggott, “If we build it, they will come,” National Civic Review 98, pp. 30 – 33, DOI: 10.1002/ncr.262, 2009. View in article

      5. Robin Lineberger, Chris Metts and Aijaz Hussain, Managing the evolving skies, Deloitte, July 2018. View in article

      6. Robin Lineberger and Aijaz Hussain, Psychological barriers to the elevated future of mobility, Deloitte Insights, November 26, 2018. View in article

      7. Ibid. View in article

      8. Ibid. View in article

      9. Robin Lineberger, Aijaz Hussain, Vincent Rutgers, and Tim Hanley, Technological barriers to the elevated future of mobility, Deloitte Insights, April 2, 2019. View in article

      10. Robin Lineberger, Aijaz Hussain, and Vincent Rutgers, Infrastructure barriers to the elevated future of mobility, Deloitte Insights, May 30, 2019. View in article

      11. Pipistrell, “2nd UBER elevate summit,” accessed May 30, 2019; Airspace Experience Technologies, “Mobi-One,” accessed May 30, 2019; Reuters, “Embraer sees 2024 commercial launch for Uber flying cabs,” December 15, 2017; Rolls Royce, “Blue sky thinking: Rolls-Royce unveils EVTOL concept at Farnborough Airshow,” accessed May 30, 2019; VRCO, accessed May 30, 2019; Bell, “Ready to fly to work?,” accessed May 30, 2019.

      12. Deloitte analysis; Morgan Stanley, Flying cars: Investment implications of autonomous urban air mobility, December 02, 2018; Uber, “Fast-forwarding to a future of on-demand urban air transportation,” October 27, 2016. View in article

    Show moreShow less

    Topics in this article

    Aerospace & Defense , Future of Mobility , Automotive , , Transportation & Logistics , Regulatory

    Future of Mobility

    Deloitte provides industry-leading consulting, tax, advisory, and audit services to many of the world’s most admired brands. Our people work across more than 20 industry sectors with one purpose: to deliver measurable, lasting results. Deloitte offers a suite of services to help clients tackle Future of Mobility–related challenges, including setting strategic direction, planning operating models, and implementing new operations and capabilities. Our wide array of expertise allows us to become a true partner throughout an organization’s comprehensive, multidimensional journey of transformation.

    Learn more
    Get in touch
    Contact
    • Robin Lineberger
    • Principal, US and Global Aerospace & Defense leader
    • Deloitte Consulting LLP
    • rlineberger@deloitte.com
    • +1 571 882 7100

    Download Subscribe

    Related

    img Trending

    Interactive 3 days ago

    Delve into the Future of Mobility collection

    • Technological barriers to the elevated future of mobility Article3 years ago
    • Psychological barriers to the elevated future of mobility Article3 years ago
    • Elevating the future of mobility Article4 years ago
    • Regulating the future of mobility Article3 years ago
    • Deloitte City Mobility Index 2020 Collection1 year ago
    • Picturing how advanced technologies are reshaping mobility Article3 years ago
    Aijaz Hussain

    Aijaz Hussain

    Aijaz Hussain—a research and insights leader with over 20 years of experience in thoughtware and business strategy—leads Deloitte’s chemicals and specialty materials research and major research campaigns (global executive and consumer surveys, etc.). Hussain also authors high-impact thought leadership on business strategy, advanced technologies, digital transformation, and the future of mobility and work.

    • aihussain@deloitte.com
    • +1 615 718 5515
    Vincent Rutgers

    Vincent Rutgers

    Partner | Deloitte Consulting Netherlands

    Vincent Rutgers is a partner with Deloitte Consulting Netherlands. He has been the global lead client partner for Royal Philips since 2013, and leads the Industrial Products and Services sector in the Netherlands, Northwest Europe and Europe, and the Middle East and Africa. Rutgers studied production process optimization and initially worked for global manufacturing companies. For the past 25 years, he has been working with major companies in the manufacturing, telecom, and utility sectors. Rutgers joined Deloitte in 2012 and led Deloitte Digital in the Netherlands before focusing on Royal Philips. 

    • vrutgers@deloitte.nl
    • +31 88 288 5894

    Share article highlights

    See something interesting? Simply select text and choose how to share it:

    Email a customized link that shows your highlighted text.
    Copy a customized link that shows your highlighted text.
    Copy your highlighted text.

    Change is in the air has been saved

    Change is in the air has been removed

    An Article Titled Change is in the air already exists in Saved items

    Invalid special characters found 
    Forgot password

    To stay logged in, change your functional cookie settings.

    OR

    Social login not available on Microsoft Edge browser at this time.

    Connect Accounts

    Connect your social accounts

    This is the first time you have logged in with a social network.

    You have previously logged in with a different account. To link your accounts, please re-authenticate.

    Log in with an existing social network:

    To connect with your existing account, please enter your password:

    OR

    Log in with an existing site account:

    To connect with your existing account, please enter your password:

    Forgot password

    Subscribe

    to receive more business insights, analysis, and perspectives from Deloitte Insights
    ✓ Link copied to clipboard
    • Contact us
    • Search jobs
    • Submit RFP
    • Subscribe to Deloitte Insights
    Follow Deloitte Insights:
    Global office directory US office locations
    US-EN Location: United States-English  
    About Deloitte
    • About Deloitte
    • Client stories
    • My Deloitte
    • Deloitte Insights
    • Email subscriptions
    • Press releases
    • Submit RFP
    • US office locations
    • Alumni
    • Global office directory
    • Newsroom
    • Dbriefs webcasts
    • Contact us
    Services
    • Tax
    • Consulting
    • Audit & Assurance
    • Deloitte Private
    • Mergers & Acquisitions
    • Risk & Financial Advisory
    • AI & Analytics
    • Cloud
    • Diversity, Equity & Inclusion
    Industries
    • Consumer
    • Energy, Resources & Industrials
    • Financial Services
    • Government & Public Services
    • Life Sciences & Health Care
    • Technology, Media & Telecommunications
    Careers
    • Careers
    • Students
    • Experienced Professionals
    • Job Search
    • Life at Deloitte
    • Alumni Relations
    • About Deloitte
    • Terms of Use
    • Privacy
    • Privacy Shield
    • Cookies
    • Cookie Settings
    • Legal Information for Job Seekers
    • Labor Condition Applications
    • Do Not Sell My Personal Information

    © 2022. See Terms of Use for more information.

    Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee ("DTTL"), its network of member firms, and their related entities. DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL (also referred to as "Deloitte Global") does not provide services to clients. In the United States, Deloitte refers to one or more of the US member firms of DTTL, their related entities that operate using the "Deloitte" name in the United States and their respective affiliates. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting. Please see www.deloitte.com/about to learn more about our global network of member firms.

    Learn more about Deloitte's work for the US Olympic Committee