Rising temperatures in Europe may be increasing support for climate action
As temperatures across the continent soar to record highs, more European voters support climate policies and climate-minded candidates, Deloitte research shows
New research from Deloitte’s ConsumerSignals survey shows that climate change is top of mind for most Europeans. As voters head to the polls for the EU Parliament elections as well as national or regional votes in 17 EU member states and the recently announced UK general election, how could climate-change awareness play a role in these elections?
The Deloitte ConsumerSignals is a longitudinal exploration of consumer spending behaviour and the drivers behind it. Every month, thousands of consumers across more than a dozen countries are being surveyed about their sense of financial well-being, spending intentions, and upcoming purchases. For this focus article around sustainability and voting intentions, we looked at the European data separately.
According to the 8,000 European consumers surveyed by Deloitte in April 2024 on their sustainability-related behaviours and preferences, 43% of respondents are more likely to vote for candidates in upcoming elections who support climate action, with similar support for climate policies that could raise taxes or increase consumer prices.
Respondents who support climate-oriented candidates overwhelmingly see climate change as a crisis
Among those respondents who are more likely to vote for candidates in upcoming elections who support climate action, 84% view climate change as an emergency, compared to just 35% of respondents who are not focused on climate as a political issue.
Climate change is a particular priority for Deloitte survey respondents in southern Europe
Support for climate-oriented candidates is particularly high among respondents in southern Europe – 56% in Italy, 46% in Spain and 46% in Portugal.
Importantly, a significant portion of those climate-oriented respondents have personally experienced an extreme heat event in the past six months – 55% in Spain, 47% in Portugal and 45% in Italy – compared to the survey average of 36% of European respondents who report having personally experienced an extreme heat event.
Survey respondents who experienced extreme weather are statistically more likely to see climate change as an emergency compared to individuals who didn’t experience extreme weather conditions, with extreme heat having the most significant effect on sentiment.1
For example, as a result of drought conditions in Spain, the reservoir serving Barcelona (Spain’s second largest city) and around 200 other towns and villages in Catalonia fell to just 16% capacity in February 2024, triggering strict restrictions on water usage.2
And extreme heat and accompanying wildfires have had stark economic consequences, especially in countries where agriculture and tourism are important sectors. As Deloitte’s Turning point analysis shows, if global warming is not kept as close to 1.5 degrees Celsius as possible, extreme weather events could cause particular harm to the economies of southern Europe, with economic losses across Italy, Portugal and Spain potentially topping 3% of GDP by 2070.3
It should be noted that the Deloitte ConsumerSignals survey assessed European consumers’ stated behaviours and preferences, or their beliefs and perceptions of climate change effects and experiences. Research indicates that exposure to and risk of climate change–related effects is not necessarily greater in southern Europe than in northern Europe.
However, the findings from the ConsumerSignals survey indicate that perception matters –that first-hand experience with extreme weather events from climate change can increase consumers’ proclivity to support climate policies and climate-minded candidates.4
Long-standing support for climate action in northern Europe
In most northern European countries, there’s a long history of environmental policymaking stretching back to the 1980s,5 and climate action is well-established as mainstream public policy within most centre, centre-left and centre-right political parties.
For example, in Germany, climate protection has been embedded in the policy programmes of the CDU (the country’s main centre-right party) since Angela Merkel became chancellor in the early 2000s. That being the case, it may be taken for granted by ConsumerSignals respondents in northern Europe that most candidates in upcoming elections support climate action.
In countries where climate action is already well-established, it is reflected in their taxation systems. As such, environmental taxes as a share of total taxes and social contributions are higher in northern Europe than in the south—especially in the Netherlands.6
By contrast, environmental protection reportedly did not get the same level of debate or policy attention in southern Europe until more recently. According to the MIT Technology Review’s Green Future Index, countries in southern Europe rank lower than those in the north across categories such as reducing carbon emissions, energy transition, green society, clean innovation and climate policy.7
That has started to change. Recent centre-left governments in Spain – influenced by the United Nation’s 2015 Paris Agreement and the EU’s European Green Deal – have introduced legislation such as the Climate Change Law and Clean Energy Law committing to end fossil-fuel production.8 And the Spanish presidency of the Council of the European Union included ‘progressing the green transition’ as the second of its four priorities in 2023.9
Lower-income respondents in southern Europe are more likely than those in the north to support increases in personal taxation to curb climate change
According to the survey data, lower-income respondents across Europe are less likely than medium- and high-income respondents to vote for a candidate in upcoming elections who supports actions to address climate change. They’re also less likely to support actions to address climate change that require increases in personal taxation or believe that it is possible to help the environment and grow the economy at the same. These findings are more pronounced among lower-income consumers in Germany and the Netherlands, while lower-income consumers in Italy, Portugal and Spain are comparably more likely to support actions to address climate change.
Those respondents who support climate-oriented candidates are also making sustainable lifestyle choices
The ConsumerSignals survey shows that support for climate-oriented candidates fits within a broader pattern of sustainable behaviours and choices. Regardless of where they live, climate-oriented respondents are also taking action in their personal lives by reducing energy usage, reducing food waste, managing their waste and choosing sustainable products. This suggests that sustainability is more than just an election-year priority with these respondents, who are already living the changes they want to see their governments make in the world.
Three hundred and sixty million eligible EU voters will go to the polls in early June. Once the election results are known, the new parliament will elect a European Commission president and confirm the commission’s political leadership. This will determine the legislative agenda for the 2024 to 2029 parliamentary cycle and how ambitious EU climate policy will be in the years ahead.
Following the 2019 election, the commission included the European Green Deal in its set of priorities with the aim of making Europe the first climate-neutral continent. Climate change is a priority for Deloitte survey respondents in southern Europe and there has been long-standing support for climate action in northern Europe. But whether this perceived experience of extreme weather events and support for climate action translates into actual votes is obviously a matter between individual voters and the ballot box.
Methodology
Deloitte’s global ConsumerSignals is a longitudinal exploration of consumer spending behaviour and the drivers behind it. Every month, we survey thousands of consumers across more than a dozen countries about their sense of financial well-being, spending intentions, and upcoming purchases. For this Europe-focused article, we have analysed responses from 8,000 participants across eight European countries out of the global panel. The data was collected between March 21–27, 2024.