Encouraging factors for return of the working-age population to Ukraine

AgroPortal.ua asked Iakiv Akulov, Human Capital Advisory Services Leader, and Iaroslav Serputko, Audit and Assurance Director, Food Processing and Agriculture Industry Group Leader at Deloitte Ukraine, to outline the encouraging factors in stimulating the return of the working-age population to Ukraine.

The end of the war and safety

Iakiv Akulov: Everyone understands that while the government is making every possible effort, its direct control is limited. People feel that the victory may not come soon: 31% of respondents believe that the war will last more than 5 years, and 24% of respondents are of the opinion that it will last 3-5 years (Gradus survey, April 2023). One third of respondents (32%) who were forced to move abroad due to the war declare their intention to return to Ukraine at the first opportunity, while 10% of external migrants tend to believe that they have left for good.

At the same time, almost half of the respondents (47%) are hesitant to answer, as they still have not made a final decision. It should be understood that the longer the war lasts, the more difficult it will be to return people, as a greater proportion of migrants adapt to their host countries, meaning that they are more likely to stay there even after the war ends.

Availability of jobs and decent standard of living

Iakiv Akulov: The labour market and industry specifics will change. Development and reskilling will be essential for every Ukrainian, including veterans and those who will return. Companies are already working on it, but such programs should also be supported at the state level.

Iaroslav Serputko: Improving the level of general education should also become a priority. Women who have left the country can compare educational opportunities for their children and will consider the quality of education in Ukraine. Reskilling is another aspect that needs much more attention than before, and therefore efforts should be directed at creating opportunities for reskilling.

Iakiv Akulov: In addition, the government can create new jobs by developing related industries, such as green energy (biomethane). Stimulating deep processing, focusing on creating higher value-added products and further developing the agricultural sector will create additional jobs and improve working conditions. Other possible actions by the state could be to stimulate small and medium-sized enterprises in the agricultural sector, for example, by leasing the state-owned agricultural land to farming enterprises, possibly on favorable terms. Furthermore, continuation of the state grant programs supporting the development of horticulture, agro-processing, and greenhouse farming could prove to be beneficial.

Restoration of infrastructure and living conditions

Iakiv Akulov: Agricultural companies are now investing heavily in the development of the communities where they operate. By organizing close cooperation between local governments and large employers, we will be able to plan regional development more effectively. It is also important to develop community ecosystems, where neighboring communities will be able to plan a joint development strategy and specific actions to implement it, taking into consideration the opportunities and challenges of each specific region.

Iaroslav Serputko: The domestic agricultural sector, which is traditionally export-oriented, is likely to recover faster than other sectors of the economy that are focused on the limited domestic market. At the same time, the agricultural sector will have to compete with other export-oriented industries for highly qualified human capital. It is important to understand that the solution to the human capital shortage will not be limited to increasing the number of employees. Companies will also have to increase labor productivity by improving their organizational models, digitalizing processes, and implementing effective incentive schemes to motivate existing employees.

Reforms in Ukraine

Iakiv Akulov: Considering the government’s measures to bring back our citizens from abroad, implementation of reforms is an important aspect. The fight against corruption, judicial reform, and further implementation of educational reform are of primary importance.

Iaroslav Serputko: We need to focus on reforms as the main factor related to the return of Ukrainian citizens. It is important that all the objectives and outcomes of the reforms are clear to the Ukrainians abroad. It should be considered that their information ties with Ukraine may be gradually weakening, so it is necessary to additionally highlight key indicators that will demonstrate the country’s readiness to welcome them back. An effective communication campaign with a focus on how reforms will facilitate integration of Ukraine into the EU and NATO could trigger a positive reaction.

It is also important to consider the foreign policy issues that are often not discussed. Ukraine should encourage its EU partners to assist in the return of the Ukrainian citizens. Given the demographic problems, these countries are interested in Ukrainians staying on their territory. Therefore, it is important to ensure proper communication and explain that the return of our citizens from abroad is the basis for the implementation of a successful economic policy and financial stability of Ukraine, and our foreign policy should actively work in this direction.

Iakiv Akulov: As for attracting specialists from other countries, Ukraine can become an attractive destination in terms of development opportunities and economic freedom. We need to simplify migration policy for other countries. This will require major cultural changes, so we need to start working with the population and conduct communication work to promote the values of diversity and inclusiveness. Ukraine can become a powerful hub for development in terms of education, new skills and experience, but the issue of security remains at the top of the agenda. We have a window of opportunity—Ukraine can receive the necessary financial and expert support through programs aimed at its development, recovery and reconstruction. In particular, the Ukraine Facility Plan envisages support from the EU until 2027 in the amount of up to €50 billion.

Iaroslav Serputko: The Post-War Recovery Plan announced by the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine has a very ambitious goal—to bring GDP back to the level of 2021 with further growth of 10% per year. However, many experts point out that even if all refugees return, the human potential will not be enough to sustain this growth rate. Therefore, the issue of attracting human capital from other countries is urgent and requires creating a positive image of the country and favorable labour legislation.

Source: AgroPortal.ua