The quarterly Deloitte CFO Survey has been gauging sentiment and balance-sheet strategies among the UK’s largest businesses since 2007.

Key findings

• UK CFOs have assumed their most defensive strategy stance since early 2020 amid uncertainty over US trade policy
• Geopolitics continues to be rated as the top risk to business by finance leaders, and is assigned its highest risk rating since the invasion of Ukraine
• Finance leaders rate tariffs, sanctions and restrictions to market access as the most prominent channel through which geopolitics could impact their businesses and are increasingly concerned over the potential for volatility or weakness in US growth
• Risk appetite among CFOs declined in the first quarter, with just 12% reporting that now is a good time to take greater risk onto their balance sheet
• Finance leaders’ focus on cost control has risen to its highest level outside of the early days of the pandemic as they expect further pressure on operating margins
• CFOs see a cooling labour market with corporate hiring expected to decline at its fastest pace since 2020 Q3 and wage growth slowing over the next year
   

“Given widespread speculation over the scale and scope of US tariff rises during the survey period, it is unsurprising that CFOs reported elevated levels of uncertainty. Previous periods of uncertainty over future terms of trade have resulted in a prolonged squeeze on investment. “

“This is still a rapidly evolving environment, and businesses will need to be proactive in mitigating the effects of tariffs, however, they will be unlikely to actually reconfigure their global supply chains or production until they see the results of negotiations or responses by other nations. Right now, businesses will be modelling the potential impacts, assessing whether their customs operations are prepared and ensuring they have as much flexibility as possible to source and supply. Being across every element of a product’s journey from its origin to its value, to its tariff classification, will stand businesses in good stead wherever the tariffs finally land.”

- Amanda Tickel, head of tax and trade policy
 

“Although large UK businesses are preparing for turbulence, levels of pessimism have not fallen to the low that was seen during the pandemic. Finance leaders have a continued focus on costs and hiring, and the prioritisation of more defensive strategies is standard practice amongst business leaders during challenging times.”

- Ian Stewart, chief economist

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Download the PDF to access all the historical data series from the Deloitte CFO Survey. Data from the CFO Survey is also hosted on Thomson Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg, Factset and Macrobond. Please feel free to use any of the data series in your documents or presentations.

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