To ensure a just net-zero transition, local communities need a voice
Deloitte research highlights the perspectives, concerns, and aspirations from some of the communities impacted by the shift to a low-carbon economy
Christina Brodzik
Karen Cunningham
Derek M. Pankratz
David R. Novak
Climate change is a global problem—a tonne of carbon emitted anywhere affects temperatures everywhere. But it’s also an inherently local one. The impacts of heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and storms are felt in particular cities, towns, and neighborhoods. Likewise, efforts to address climate change—by shifting to renewable energy or electric vehicles, for example—take place in the context of local experiences, economics, attitudes, and history. Realizing a just, equitable, and durable transition to a low-emissions economy requires listening to and supporting those myriad local voices whose communities and livelihoods could be radically transformed by the net-zero transition.
In aggregate, decarbonization is expected to be a net job creator, but Deloitte economic modeling indicates that more than 13 million jobs in the United States have a high vulnerability to climate extremes and economic transition impacts, and that worker vulnerability is unevenly distributed (figure 1).1
Such top-down assessments are an important part of the story, but they are not the whole story. This research sought to go beyond what surveys or raw economic data tell us to better understand the barriers, opportunities, hopes, and fears of people in these areas. A richer picture of local communities can help inform the efforts of businesses and federal, state, and local governments, hopefully yielding more nuanced and effective approaches to realizing a just transition.
To understand the perspectives of those on the frontlines of this shift, the Deloitte Center for Integrated Research partnered with the MIT Center for Constructive Communication and Cortico, a nonprofit that offers tools and methods to enable community-level conversations. The research took place via 33 small group conversations in four US states with close historical ties to the fossil fuel economy,2 namely Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Texas. The 175 research participants represented a range of professions from within the targeted communities, including firefighters, teachers, students, retirees, truck drivers, food service workers, and health care workers. The oldest and youngest participants were separated by 60 years. Some of those who contributed were actively employed in the oil and gas industry in roles such as pipeline construction coordinators, among others.
Community organizations were recruited to gather community members and facilitate these local conversations. Recruitment strategies and participants were determined by the collaborating community organizations, as they know the local populations best. Community organizations were given the freedom to determine who and how best to recruit from their local area. The conversations covered topics such as personal experiences with the energy transition and climate change. The discussions were then transcribed and uploaded to the Cortico platform, which facilitated a “sensemaking” process to identify important themes and insights.
The results are not intended to be a representative sample, but rather a composite portrait of how communities are thinking and feeling about the changes ahead. Rather, we sought to hear the lived experiences of participants as valuable in their own right. Even so, commonalities emerged that can help inform the strategies of governments and companies as they consider how to enable a just transition in communities like those reflected here.
Insights to inform green jobs and just transition policies
The conversations generated from this research are wide-ranging and covers a host of energy, economic, and environmental topics. Overall, while some people feel skepticism and the weight of historical boom-and-bust economic cycles, our conversations reveal hope, fortitude, and a belief that climate problems can be addressed in ways that enable local communities to benefit and possibly even thrive.
It’s about more than just a paycheck
Deloitte economic modeling indicates that an active transition to a net-zero economy could yield a net gain of five million jobs in the United States by 2050.3 Yet, the voices we heard make it clear that it’s not only about how many jobs exist or how well they pay; it’s also about the quality of work. Will it be steady, or subject to boom-bust cycles? Participants also seemed to weigh the promises of the green economy against long and often-valued traditions that link community identity with particular industries.
“I want strong, community-committed manufacturing here. That means that the people who work in the plant, and manage the plant, and make the decisions about the plant, live in the community and participate in the economy here.”
– Tracy, West Virginia
Companies and governments looking to provide opportunities in these communities should be attentive to the full range of factors that could influence worker acceptance. In addition to wages and benefits, consider working conditions, job stability, and perceptions of what constitutes dignified work. The research suggests that fostering a cohesive culture in emerging green industries, akin to what developed among coal miners or autoworkers,4 could make those careers more attractive.
To win support, understand transition communities as end users, not just producers, in the green economy
Despite these communities’ close economic ties to fossil fuel industries, participants were also focused on how the green transition would impact their communities and their daily lives outside the workplace. There was optimism, uncertainty, and skepticism about the practicalities and viability of clean technologies like renewable energy and electric vehicles. For example, many participants lived in rural areas and questioned whether EVs’ driving range and charging infrastructure would be adequate to meet their transportation needs.
“I would like to see way more of that [renewable energy] in the future. Anything solar, anything wind-powered, anything that we don’t have to dig for it. We don’t dig for the sun. We don’t have to dig for wind. [I]n my opinion, it’s worth giving that a shot and seeing where that goes and making everything more natural and not having to, like I said, actually physically go get these things that fuel us.”
– Amara, Pennsylvania
Demonstrating the viability and affordability of green alternatives can not only help speed their adoption among consumers, but it can also serve as a powerful way to gain buy-in for the green transition. Leaders can create a positive feedback loop if communities can see the economic benefits of new economic options, while also realizing the personal benefits in their daily lives. But achieving that requires those options to be truly viable in these communities. Companies and governments can work to improve three of the most oft-cited barriers to choosing more sustainable goods and services: affordability, convenience, and availability.5
An opportunity to build regenerative local economies
Many participants lamented a number of the changes they had witnessed in their communities over the years. The conversations revealed numerous stories of damaged ecosystems, health challenges, and diminished quality of life that many participants attributed to environmental degradation and pollution. But participants also spoke of a deep pride of place and a hope that a resilient, economically-diversified future is on the horizon.
“I mean, we’re all looking for the same goal: for everybody to prosper and to be healthy and live happy. And I think that can be done. We just have to watch what we do with our future. We’ve got to take care of our resources, but we have to take care of everything from the top down…People have to work, support, and raise their families as well.”
– Mike, West Virginia
As more companies and governments explore what it means to be “regenerative,”6 transition communities present opportunities to (re)build new institutions, social structures, and local economies that “place life and well-being at the center of all [their] decision-making.”7 These places can be ripe for new business models that are nature-positive and restorative, employ circular principles, and embrace sustainable value creation.8 In doing so, it’s important to engage broadly and deeply with the community. They are not a “sandbox” for untested approaches that lack buy-in from local stakeholders.
No two communities are alike in the net-zero transition
There’s no simple narrative to encapsulate the story of communities at the forefront of the green transition. The voices here reflect a range of considerations, contradictions, and complexities. This analysis aims to point out common elements that surfaced within and across these communities, and which can be overlooked in more macro-level assessments. These themes are a frame through which leaders can begin to craft nuanced and holistic approaches, but the policies and business solutions needed to achieve a just transition are likely to be just as complex and varied as the local voices. When it comes to achieving a just transition, there is no “one size fits all.”
Read more insights and stories from the “Local climate voices” project.