Future scenarios for the TV and video industry by 2030

In what ways are digitalization and VoD providers such as Netflix changing the market of the future?

The TV and video market is highly dynamic and is characterized by a great number of drivers: digitalization, new market offers, and disruption by digital players ensure rapid change. Moreover, consumer expectations and usage habits are changing rapidly in the age of video-on-demand and mobile media consumption. This Deloitte Germany study on future scenarios for the TV and video industry by 2030 demonstrates what market players need to be ready for.

VoD and digital platforms as game changers

Traditional media concepts are a thing of the past, the entire industry is undergoing fundamental change: streaming services are no longer just platforms for the consumption of films and TV programs, now they are investing in the production and licensing of globally successful own content – and are thus in direct competition with the traditional TV and video industry. At the same time, broadcasters and media companies are launching their own on-demand offerings and global content producers are setting up their own streaming services.

Also, on-demand video has radically changed consumer behavior: consumers increasingly expect relevant and attractive TV and video content that can be accessed anytime, anywhere, and in the format that best suits their immediate needs.

The future of the television and video industry

All these factors are already having an effect on the market, but what will the future of TV and video look like in a few years' time? Will global platform giants such as Netflix, Amazon, Apple, and Google dominate the market? Or will the TV and video industry develop into a diverse ecosystem shaped by cooperation, in which traditional providers also have a role to play? Who has access to the customer and who can make best use of monetization possibilities?

The swiftly changing market landscape and ongoing diversification make it difficult to make long-term predictions about the future. That is why we chose a holistic approach for the Deloitte study on future scenarios for the TV and video industry by 2030 and look beyond the customary planning horizon of three to five years with the help of scenario design.

Our scenarios are based on a comprehensive set of drivers that will influence the future of the TV and video industry. We bundled these with the help of expert interviews and an external environment analysis based on natural language processing algorithms, and evaluated them in a matrix in relation to their degree of uncertainty and their individual effects on the TV and video industry.

Digitalization, personalized advertising, and less regulation

  • For the purposes of the study we identified additional factors that will clearly determine the main future developments in the TV and video industry in the foreseeable future:
  • Digitalization is fundamentally changing production processes and the distribution of content. All-IP is becoming the standard for TV and video, and fast fiber optic networks and 5G are enabling ever more flexible and mobile consumption of media content. These are being joined by new, intelligent recommendation functionalities based on artificial intelligence and analytics to address consumers in a targeted way.
  • Video-on-demand is gaining ground on a broad front, but traditional, linear television continues to assert its role – especially in the area of popular live content such as sports and major events.
  • TV and video advertising is adapting to new formats and relying more and more on the personalization of advertising content. The analysis of user data makes it possible to optimize ads and content, increase the benefit for potential customers, and ultimately to win them over as consumers. The extent to which this will happen, however, depends very much on the willingness of consumers to hand over their data.
  • Market regulation in the media industry will be more moderate than it is today. In particular in the area of online and mobile services, this will reduce the regulatory pressure on all market participants, especially on the traditional media companies. Network neutrality remains.

Four future scenarios for 2030

As a result of our analysis, we developed the following four future scenarios for the TV and video industry by 2030:

  • Scenario 1: Universal Supermarket
  • Scenario 2: Content Endgame
  • Scenario 3: Revenge of the Broadcasters
  • Scenario 4: Lost in Diversity

Deloitte Panel

"Moving Image 2030 - A Look at Four Scenarios" as part of the 2018 Munich Media days.

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The six main drivers for the UK TV industry over the next five years.

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The future scenarios as video

Click your way through the various scenarios and see what the future of TV and video might look like in detail:

  • Scenario 1>> Click here to watch the video
  • Scenario 2>> Click here to watch the video
  • Scenario 3>> Click here to watch the video
  • Scenario 4>> Click here to watch the video

Universal Supermarket

What would be a world in which some global digital platform companies have replaced national broadcasters? Take a look at a possible future scenario for the TV and video industry.

Content Endgame

What would happen if global content producers dominated the market in the future? Experience with us a possible future scenario of the TV and video landscape in 2030.

Revenge of the Broadcasters

In this possible future scenario, national broadcasters have successfully mastered the digital transformation and secured a strong position in the TV and video ecosystem.

Lost in diversity

Follow us into a future in which the TV and video market has developed into a diverse ecosystem in which there are no dominant players and market participants are constantly changing.

Take a glimpse at all scenarios in our full video.

How can the TV and video industry adapt to change?

As different as the four future scenarios for the TV and video industry by 2030 may appear, some universal implications are relevant for all market participants and they should take these into account in their strategic planning.

Broadcasters and content producers can no longer rely on their present market position. To secure their business models and future revenue streams, they must open themselves to cooperation and alliances, including with direct competitors. Joint production, joint distribution models, and even joint platforms are suitable ways of countering the threat from digital platform providers such as Netflix, Amazon, Apple, or Google.

Beyond this, established broadcasters and content producers must constantly invest in their digital competence, because technology has become a core element of their business processes. What is crucial for them is that they are equally attractive to both digital talents and creative minds. What Bill Gates wrote over 20 years ago will still apply in the future: "Content is King". However, to produce attractive content in a future shaped by digitalization and ultimately to reach the customer with it, first-class technological capabilities are a necessity.

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