Consumer electronics sales: During the pandemic, computer and TV sets outgrew smartphones

Across the consumer electronics sales categories, computers (+34%) and TV sets (+12%) have grown much faster than smartphones (+1%) in the past three years globally, likely due to COVID-19 restrictions and more time spent working and learning from home. As a result, smartphones’ share of combined sales dollars for the three device categories has fallen from 65% to 60% (see figure).

And it doesn’t look like smartphones are about to regain that share. Growth rates for units of smartphones,¹ computers,² and TV sets³ are each forecast to be 3–4% for 2022. Although PC and TV set average prices are likely to be flat, smartphone average selling prices are predicted to drop by more than 15% during the year, resulting in a likely net decline in dollar value.

These three categories were a combined US$880 billion in 2021.⁴ For context, the next largest consumer electronics sales category is tablet computers (both slate and detachable), at about US$60 billion in 2020.⁵

It’s more complicated than just sales of new devices, of course.

• The installed base of smartphones globally in 2021 is about 4.3 billion, versus 1.4 billion computers, or half a billion tablets.⁶ (The exact TV set installed base is not known but is well over a billion by Deloitte estimates.) The shifts in new device sales between 2018 and 2021 are unlikely to have moved the installed base needle very far: Smartphones are still a much larger market.
• In the United States in 2021, the average person spent roughly the same amount of time daily on each device: just under four hours daily on the computer,⁷ just over four hours on their smartphones,⁸ and four hours and 20 minutes daily using their TV set for traditional TV, plus other video and gaming content.⁹

In 2018, a mobile-only world looked plausible—after all, smartphone grew tenfold from 2008 to 2018, while PC sales fell every year between 2012 and 2018.¹⁰ However, with smartphone sales remaining flat since 2018,¹¹ the future looks more like a three-ring circus, with consumers continuing to support smartphones, computers, and TV sets with their wallets and their attention.

Implications for executives to consider

• Although computers are often thought of as business tools, they are still important for media consumption, online commerce, online education, and gaming. Their recovery and resilience matter for those markets.
• Mobility and time spent out of home are likely to rise post-pandemic. But it seems probable that hybrid work models will persist to some extent,¹² suggesting that PC sales are unlikely to fall to 2018 levels.
• Although traditional TV viewing is declining in many markets,¹³ other forms of content, including subscription and ad-supported video streaming as well as gaming, are filling up the TV screen.
• Devices are just the hub of an ecosystem. The value of software, services, subscriptions, and accessories will likely pay dividends for years to come.