The manufacturing industry looks for ways to make itself disruption-proof

Before the pandemic hit, the manufacturing industry was working to regain the momentum it had reached after the 2008 recession. However, after the first wave of pandemic-driven shutdowns, segment recoveries for various manufacturers have been uneven. Looking ahead to 2021, the recovery may take longer to reach pre-pandemic levels, as Deloitte projections based on the Oxford Economic Model (OEM) anticipate a decline in annual manufacturing GDP growth levels for 2020-2021, with a forecast of -3.7% for 2020 and -5.4% for 2021.

Reeling from the effects of a global pandemic-driven shutdown, US industrial production (-16.5% year over year) and US total factory orders (-22.7% year over year) saw a steep decline in April, followed by suppressed improvement. The current US Industrial Production Index stands at 101.5 in September (the most recent month available), a substantial dip from its pre-pandemic level of 110. Production and order levels are still below 2019 levels, but the trajectory of the decline has slowed. Total industrial capacity utilization improved to 71.5% in September, up from 64.1% in April; however, it’s still below pre-pandemic levels of 77%.

2020 also experienced a significant dip in manufacturing employment levels, largely due to forced shutdowns in the early days of the pandemic and suppressed orders, with April recording manufacturing’s lowest employment levels since 2010. Despite recent gains from much of the country’s manufacturing base back in operation, employment levels in October are still 621,000 lower than in February. All of these indicators have created an environment of ongoing uncertainty, although 63% of executives in Deloitte’s post-election poll are showing a somewhat or very positive outlook on business. Explore our four manufacturing industry trends for 2021 and beyond to see how things are shaping up.