Deloitte 2014 TMT Predictions: Wearable to rise and Phablets to outsell tablets
Wearable technologies are expected to rise, Phablets are expected to outsell Tablets, and expect an increase in the value of premium broadcast sports rights.
Wearable technologies are predicted to sell 10 million units in 2014, generating an estimated $3 billion, with sales to surpass 100 million units by 2020.
New York, 14 January 2014 — The top global technology, media, and telecom trends for 2014 include the 10 million unit year for wearable technologies; 50 million homes doubling up on pay-television (TV); the global value of premium sports video rights increasing 14 percent led by North American sports leagues and European football (soccer); and a potential upsurge of eVisits according to Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited’s (DTTL) 13th edition of the Global TMT Predictions released today. In addition, the report predicts that phablets — an oversized smartphone that’s part cell phone, part tablet — will outsell tablets by $25 billon and the total global sales of smartphones, tablets, PCs, TV sets, and gaming consoles will exceed $750 billion in 2014 and then plateau as consumer usage will continue to converge.
“Our report details many watched and often contended trends in the industry. While there has been much uncertainty around wearables, we predict that consumer interest will lead to a lucrative market with $3 billion in sales in glasses, watches, and fitness bands. We also anticipate a doubling up on Pay TV, which is counter to historical expectations of ‘cord cutting’,” said Jolyon Barker, Managing Director, Global TMT Industry, DTTL. “Additionally, smartphones, the largest component in the converged living room group ($375 billion revenue in 2014), are nearing saturation among most age groups except the 55+ demographic, which will experience a steep rise in usage this year.”
In 2014, mobile instant messaging services (IMS) will generate about 70 percent of all messages sent from mobile phones, but only about three percent of the value. Every day, 70 billion messages will be sent via mobile, of which only 21 billion will be via short messaging service (SMS), but text message revenues are projected at about $100 billion this year, compared to just $2 billion for mobile IM services. Globally volumes of mobile IMS and text messages will grow, even though some developed markets may see falling SMS volumes.
Additionally, while 2014 will be the year of the baby boomer, the group also comes with its own set of challenges and opportunities. “Getting baby-boomers to engage all functions of their smartphones and not just use it as a feature phone represents a great opportunity for carriers. They need to be up for this challenge though, since we expect that a quarter of these smartphone owners may not download a single app,” Barker added.
This year’s Predictions also tackles eVisits and predicts the practice to go mainstream. “We will see an inflection point in 2014 in their adoption, partially due to pressure to reduce medical costs and improve care, but mostly due to changes in technology and telecommunications infrastructure,” Barker added
The report also looks well beyond 2014 and predicts a “perfect storm” of conditions that could make Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) a major factor by 2020, representing over 10 percent of all courses taken in tertiary and enterprise continuing education. New technology, alternative modes of teaching and a need to continuously update quickly obsolete skills are driving the trend, suggesting MOOCs will grow enormously over the longer term, even if disruption is minimal in 2014.
About the DTTL TMT Predictions
The TMT Predictions are based on worldwide research supported by in-depth interviews and input from Deloitte member firm clients, Deloitte alumni, industry analysts, leading TMT executives, and thousands of Deloitte member firm TMT practitioners across its global network. The focus of Predictions varies from year to year, but one theme appears constant: the impact of TMT on our behavior steadily deepens.
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