2024 banking and capital markets outlook

The slowing global economy, higher interest rates, climate change, and geopolitical tensions are influencing the strategic choices banks and capital markets firms must make to thrive. Meanwhile, emerging technologies and consumer trends are changing the way they operate. How can banks adapt?

Explore our 2024 banking and capital markets outlook for insights on the forces shaping the industry’s future across many market segments, including retail banking, consumer payments, wealth management, corporate and transaction banking, investment banking, and market infrastructure.

Here are some of the key findings from Deloitte’s 2024 banking and capital markets outlook:

• A slowing global economy, coupled with a divergent economic landscape, will challenge the banking industry in 2024. Banks’ ability to generate income and manage costs will be tested in new ways.
• Multiple disruptive forces are reshaping the foundational architecture of the banking and capital markets industry. Higher interest rates, reduced money supply, more assertive regulations, climate change, and geopolitical tensions are some of the major drivers behind this transformation.
• The exponential pace of new technologies, and the confluence of multiple trends, are influencing how banks operate and serve customer needs. The impact of generative AI, industry convergence, embedded finance, open data, the digitization of money, decarbonization, digital identity, and fraud will grow in 2024.
• Banks, in general, are on sound footing, but revenue models will be tested. Organic growth will be modest, forcing institutions to pursue new sources of value in a capital-scarce environment.
• Investment banking and sales and trading businesses will need to adapt to new competitive dynamics. Forces such as the growth of private capital will challenge this sector to offer more value to both corporate and buy-side clients.
• Early 2023 shocks to global banking have galvanized the industry to reassess current strategies. While bank leaders focus on proposed regulatory changes to capital, liquidity, and risk management for bank leaders, there is still much to be done to evolve today’s business models.