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Energy, oil, and gas price forecast

New avenues opening for chemical and oil and gas industries

The possibilities are plentiful for Canada’s chemical and oil and gas industries. Our abundant natural resources provide extensive opportunities to invest in onshore development, advance our export capabilities into friendly markets, and partner with others in diversifying operations to allow Canadian companies to participate more fully in the emerging energy value chain.

Discover how in our quarterly energy, oil, and gas price forecast.

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NOTE: Our forecast is not for dissemination in the United States or for distribution to United States' wire services. By downloading these materials, you agree to be bound by our legal disclaimer.

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About our forecast

The sector is transforming. So is our price forecast.

Deloitte’s energy, oil, and gas price forecast takes many factors into account, including historical trends, future market changes, current supply and demand, and global geopolitical changes. We collect this information from many sources, such as industry publications, exchange markets, and government agencies.

Our diverse, well-rounded data and information keep us in tune with the industry. With the everchanging nature of the landscape, we release our price forecasts every quarter to keep you up to date.

Crude oil

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast using futures data from the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), extending eight years into the future. Other US crude prices, such as Gulf Coast ASCI, Louisiana Light, and Alaskan North Slope are based on historical differentials to WTI.

Light oil prices at Edmonton are forecast using the most recent pipeline tariffs and exchange rates. Consideration is also given to the current differential futures, as traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). This price is used as the basis to arrive at the remaining domestic crude reference points, using price offsets based on long-term historical data.

Brent crude oil prices are forecast using futures data from the International Commodities Exchange (ICE), which extends seven years into the future. Other International crude oil prices—such as the OPEC Basket, Venezuelan, Nigerian, Mexican, Russian, and Indonesian crudes—are based on historical differentials to Brent crude oil.

Natural gas

Henry Hub natural gas prices are forecast using futures data from the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), extending twelve years into the future. Other US natural gas prices, such as Permian Waha and Louisiana East Texas, are based on historical differentials to Henry Hub.

The Canadian AECO-C price is forecast using the historical differential to Henry Hub. Consideration is also given to AECO-C futures as traded on the Natural Gas Exchange (NGX).

UK National Balancing Point (NBP) natural gas pricing has been forecast separately from Henry Hub based on futures data from ICE.

Natural gas liquids (NGLs)

Canadian NGL prices are based on delivery to Edmonton. Adjustments for transportation back to specific plant sales points are required to arrive at the property product price.

Condensate, propane, and butane are tied directly to light oil prices at Edmonton and are forecast based on historical trends. Similarly, ethane is tied to AECO-C gas prices.

Sulphur

North American sulphur prices are obtained from select sulphur producers that submit statements to the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER). Given the volatility of the sulphur market, prices are based on recent historical data and are forecast as a constant price in real dollars.

Price forecast archives

Download our price and market demand forecasts from years past.

September 2023

Investing in Canada’s move to clean energy

June 2023

Electrifying Alberta: How will the electricity market evolve?

March 2023

Buy with strategy, sell with purpose

View all archives

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Contact

Andrew Botterill

National Leader, Energy & Chemicals

A partner in our Resource Evaluation & Advisory (REA) practice, Andrew leads the REA technical team, advising clients in many facets of reservoir engineering, enhanced oil recovery, reservoir simulations, and the evaluation of energy and chemicals assets.

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