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The Deloitte US economic vulnerability index

by Daniel Bachman, Jim Guszcza, Jesus Leal Trujillo
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    2 minute read 24 April 2020

    The Deloitte US economic vulnerability index Gauging COVID-19’s economic impact on US counties

    2 minute read 24 April 2020
    • Daniel Bachman United States
    • Jim Guszcza United States
    • Jesus Leal Trujillo United States
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    Explore the relative vulnerability of each United States county to economic disruption due to COVID-19 based on the industries that employ those who live in the county.

    How badly will the economy of your community be affected by COVID-19? We believe that depends a lot on where people in your community work. The impact of shutting down public spaces and implementing stay-at-home orders and social distancing varies substantially by industry. Some industries, such as restaurants, are almost completely shut down. Others—particularly those in the food supply chain or where employees can easily work remotely—are less affected.

    Learn more

    Explore the economics collection

    Learn about Deloitte’s services

    Go straight to smart. Get the Deloitte Insights app

    To determine each industry’s vulnerability to the COVID-19 crisis, we employed the “wisdom of crowds.”1 Our “crowd” in this case was the researchers of Deloitte’s US Research and Insights organization, most of whom are industry specialists who are studying COVID-19’s impact on their respective industries. On April 14, 2020, we sent them a survey asking them to rank industries by vulnerability to the pandemic.

    Based on the survey results, we then created what we call the Deloitte US economic vulnerability index score. To calculate each county’s EVI score, we multiplied the county’s share of employment in each industry by the vulnerability of the industry as determined by our survey. The county’s score is the total of these weighted employment shares times the industry score. We then classified counties according to quintiles of risk, with 1 being the least vulnerable and 5 the most vulnerable. If every person employed in a county works in the least vulnerable industry, the county’s EVI will be 1. Conversely, if every person works in the most vulnerable industry, the county’s EVI will be 5.

    The resulting EVI scores, which you can explore in the map above, show the relative vulnerability of each county in the United States to economic disruption based on the industries that employ those who live in the county, as reported by the US Census Bureau. Vulnerability scores range from 1 to 5: the higher the score, the more likely the county’s employees are vulnerable to the COVID-19 crisis. The map shows counties by their EVI; darker counties are more vulnerable to the COVID-19 crisis than lighter counties.

    Endnotes
      1. James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds (New York: Doubleday, 2004). View in article

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    Topics in this article

    Economics , United States (U.S.) , Americas Economics , Americas

    Deloitte Global Economist Network

    The Deloitte Global Economist Network is a diverse group of economists that produce relevant, interesting and thought-provoking content for external and internal audiences. The Network’s industry and economics expertise allows us to bring sophisticated analysis to complex industry-based questions. Publications range from in-depth reports and thought leadership examining critical issues to executive briefs aimed at keeping Deloitte’s top management and partners abreast of topical issues.

    Learn more
    Get in touch
    Contact
    • Dr. Daniel Bachman
    • Senior manager
    • Deloitte Services LP
    • dbachman@deloitte.com
    • +1 202 220 2053

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    Daniel Bachman

    Daniel Bachman

    Senior Manager | Deloitte Services LP

    Dr. Bachman is a senior manager with Deloitte Services LP, in charge of US economic forecasting for Deloitte’s Eminence and Strategy functions. He is an experienced US and international macroeconomic forecaster and modeler. Dr. Bachman came to Deloitte from IHS economics, where he was in charge of IHS’s Center for Forecasting and Modeling. Prior to that, he worked as a forecaster and economic analyst at the US Commerce Department.

    • dbachman@deloitte.com
    • +1 202 306 5576
    Jim Guszcza

    Jim Guszcza

    Jim Guszcza is Deloitte’s US chief data scientist and a leader in Deloitte’s Research & Insights group. One of Deloitte’s pioneering data scientists, Guszcza has 20 years of experience building and designing analytical solutions in a variety of public- and private-sector domains. In recent years, he has spearheaded Deloitte’s use of behavioral nudge tactics to more effectively act on algorithmic indications and prompt behavior change. Guszcza is a former professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison business school, and holds a PhD in the Philosophy of Science from The University of Chicago. He is a fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and recently served on its board of directors.

    • jguszcza@deloitte.com
    Jesus Leal Trujillo

    Jesus Leal Trujillo

    Data Scientist – Manager | Deloitte Services LP

    Jesus is a manager and data scientist working for Research & Insights at Deloitte Services LP. As a data scientist he develops and implements cutting edge research methodologies to provide insights to a variety of industries. He has authored multiple publications on topics such innovation and economic growth, manufacturing innovation strategies, and developed a typology of large metropolitan economies.

    • jlealtrujillo@deloitte.com
    • +1 571 882 8718

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