Food prices are deflating Thanksgiving holiday celebrations
Simpler meals, fewer guests, and more potluck-style gatherings: Americans are adapting their Thanksgiving celebrations, Deloitte survey data shows
Justin Cook
Lupine Skelly
Siddharth Mishra
Danny Edsall
Thanksgiving is arguably the most food-centric holiday in the United States. But this year, Americans may find more price concerns and fewer people around the dining room table.
Grocery inflation has returned to more historical norms, but prices paid for groceries are up 26% overall from what they were in the pre-pandemic, pre-inflationary days of January 2020.1 The dust has yet to settle in 2024, but a 16-pound turkey cost 31% more last year than before the pandemic. Pumpkin pie mix and pie shells set you back 34% and 39% more, respectively. Stuffing was up 41% and be careful passing the dinner rolls—they cost 54% more.2
Despite the high costs, Thanksgiving isn’t canceled. Three in four Americans we surveyed (75%) plan to be part of a Thanksgiving gathering or celebration this year (16% still weren’t sure).3 For many of those hosting, the event is more than just a party. About 8 in 10 say it is an important part of their personal tradition or culture.4 That reverence brings with it some resilience in the face of difficulties like prices. However, the higher costs could put a damper on this year’s celebration.
Forty-four percent of those hosting are concerned about the cost of the event. And, 3 in 10 hosts surveyed are leaving more friends or relatives off the invite list this year. The connection to finances is hard to miss.5 While the importance of celebrating stays high across income levels, both cost concerns and guest list cuts intensify at lower incomes (figure 1).
Age demographics also matter, and Gen Z hosts seem especially affected this year. In our survey, they were the most likely to report concerns about costs (61%) and the most likely to reduce their guest lists (49%). Gen Zers’ disposition could be partly due to an income effect, as younger people tend to make less income,6 but it may have something to do with more limited experience hosting. Hosting as a priority is less a part of Gen Z traditions (10 percentage points lower than other generations), many of which are likely still being established in younger households.7
Some hosts may look to control costs in other ways besides inviting fewer guests. Three in 10 respondents (30%) say they will serve or eat a less fancy meal this year featuring lower-cost dishes. Those guests lucky enough to get an invite would be expected to help, according to those surveyed. Four in 10 overall say this year it is more important than before for guests to bring something to help offset the costs of hosting.8 Almost half of hosts (47%) plan to ask their guests outright to bring something.9 And indeed, 92% of guests do plan to bring something. On average, they plan to spend just over US$47 on their offering.10
More potluck-style gatherings might create a stronger sense of community for hosts and guests alike, but some will be left out entirely this Thanksgiving. Almost one in 10 surveyed (9%) already know they aren’t attending a gathering. Of those, 40% say they are not celebrating with others due to the higher food costs, 35% cite more general financial concerns, and 26% say they are scheduled to work during the holiday.11
Some retailers are leaning into holiday meal price concerns by offering specially discounted meal packages aiming to keep the cost below a certain threshold, like US$5–7 per person.12 It remains to be seen if those types of discounts will stretch into 2025 occasions or how much food and beverage company suppliers will be asked to share in the discounting.
Either way, consumers will have to continue grappling with the cost of food after Thanksgiving. The Deloitte food frugality index (FFI) tracks a basket of consumer tradeoffs and economizing behaviors over time, with higher numbers indicating consumers are tightening their purse strings.13 The latest data, which stems from a survey of 2,000 respondents, reflects the following trade-offs made by surveyed consumers:14
- 29% purchased mostly store brands
- 24% purchased mostly low-cost ingredients
- 24% purchased mostly lower-cost meats and cuts
The findings also shine a light on consumers’ other economizing behaviors:
- 35% saved by reducing at-home food waste
- 25% only bought essentials
- 19% bought less than they wanted
There is a silver lining in the data. The FFI just hit its lowest point since the index launched just over two years ago, seven percentage points below the baseline, which indicates consumers are becoming less frugal with their spending and could be a sign of growing consumer confidence. If this trend continues, by next Thanksgiving, more people could be around the table again to share the meal.
