Food prices are deflating Thanksgiving holiday celebrations

Simpler meals, fewer guests, and more potluck-style gatherings: Americans are adapting their Thanksgiving celebrations, Deloitte survey data shows

Justin Cook

United States

Lupine Skelly

United States

Danny Edsall

United States

Thanksgiving is arguably the most food-centric holiday in the United States. But this year, Americans may find more price concerns and fewer people around the dining room table.

Grocery inflation has returned to more historical norms, but prices paid for groceries are up 26% overall from what they were in the pre-pandemic, pre-inflationary days of January 2020.1 The dust has yet to settle in 2024, but a 16-pound turkey cost 31% more last year than before the pandemic. Pumpkin pie mix and pie shells set you back 34% and 39% more, respectively. Stuffing was up 41% and be careful passing the dinner rolls—they cost 54% more.2

Despite the high costs, Thanksgiving isn’t canceled. Three in four Americans we surveyed (75%) plan to be part of a Thanksgiving gathering or celebration this year (16% still weren’t sure).3 For many of those hosting, the event is more than just a party. About 8 in 10 say it is an important part of their personal tradition or culture.4 That reverence brings with it some resilience in the face of difficulties like prices. However, the higher costs could put a damper on this year’s celebration.

Forty-four percent of those hosting are concerned about the cost of the event. And, 3 in 10 hosts surveyed are leaving more friends or relatives off the invite list this year. The connection to finances is hard to miss.5 While the importance of celebrating stays high across income levels, both cost concerns and guest list cuts intensify at lower incomes (figure 1).

Age demographics also matter, and Gen Z hosts seem especially affected this year. In our survey, they were the most likely to report concerns about costs (61%) and the most likely to reduce their guest lists (49%). Gen Zers’ disposition could be partly due to an income effect, as younger people tend to make less income,6 but it may have something to do with more limited experience hosting. Hosting as a priority is less a part of Gen Z traditions (10 percentage points lower than other generations), many of which are likely still being established in younger households.7

Some hosts may look to control costs in other ways besides inviting fewer guests. Three in 10 respondents (30%) say they will serve or eat a less fancy meal this year featuring lower-cost dishes. Those guests lucky enough to get an invite would be expected to help, according to those surveyed. Four in 10 overall say this year it is more important than before for guests to bring something to help offset the costs of hosting.8 Almost half of hosts (47%) plan to ask their guests outright to bring something.9 And indeed, 92% of guests do plan to bring something. On average, they plan to spend just over US$47 on their offering.10

More potluck-style gatherings might create a stronger sense of community for hosts and guests alike, but some will be left out entirely this Thanksgiving. Almost one in 10 surveyed (9%) already know they aren’t attending a gathering. Of those, 40% say they are not celebrating with others due to the higher food costs, 35% cite more general financial concerns, and 26% say they are scheduled to work during the holiday.11

Some retailers are leaning into holiday meal price concerns by offering specially discounted meal packages aiming to keep the cost below a certain threshold, like US$5–7 per person.12 It remains to be seen if those types of discounts will stretch into 2025 occasions or how much food and beverage company suppliers will be asked to share in the discounting.

Either way, consumers will have to continue grappling with the cost of food after Thanksgiving. The Deloitte food frugality index (FFI) tracks a basket of consumer tradeoffs and economizing behaviors over time, with higher numbers indicating consumers are tightening their purse strings.13 The latest data, which stems from a survey of 2,000 respondents, reflects the following trade-offs made by surveyed consumers:14

  • 29% purchased mostly store brands
  • 24% purchased mostly low-cost ingredients
  • 24% purchased mostly lower-cost meats and cuts

The findings also shine a light on consumers’ other economizing behaviors:

  • 35% saved by reducing at-home food waste
  • 25% only bought essentials
  • 19% bought less than they wanted

There is a silver lining in the data. The FFI just hit its lowest point since the index launched just over two years ago, seven percentage points below the baseline, which indicates consumers are becoming less frugal with their spending and could be a sign of growing consumer confidence. If this trend continues, by next Thanksgiving, more people could be around the table again to share the meal.

BY

Justin Cook

United States

Lupine Skelly

United States

Endnotes

  1. FRED, St. Louis Fed, “Consumer price index for all urban consumers: Food-at-home,” accessed Oct. 15, 2024.

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  2. Deloitte analysis of: The American Farm Bureau, “Cost of Thanksgiving dinner down slightly from record high in 2022,” press release, Nov. 15, 2023; 2023 results compared to 2019 results.

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  3. Deloitte Black Friday Cyber Monday survey of 1,200 US consumers, fielded Oct. 16–22, 2024.

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  4. Brian McCarthy, Stephen Rogers, Lupine Skelly, and Kusum Raimalani, “2024 Deloitte holiday retail survey: Embracing a season of ‘doing’ and discounts,” Deloitte Insights, Oct. 15, 2024; data sourced from the underlying survey.

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  5. Ibid.

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  6. Gloria Guzman and Melissa Kollar, “Income in the United States: 2022,” United States Census Bureau, Sept. 12, 2023.

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  7. McCarthy, Rogers, Skelly, and Raimalani, “2024 Deloitte holiday retail survey.”

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  8. Deloitte Black Friday Cyber Monday survey of 1,200 US consumers, fielded Oct. 16–22, 2024.

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  9. McCarthy, Rogers, Skelly, and Raimalani, “2024 Deloitte holiday retail survey.”

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  10. Deloitte Black Friday Cyber Monday survey of 1,200 US consumers, fielded Oct. 16–22, 2024.

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  11. Ibid.

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  12. Molly Liebergall, “Thanksgiving meal deals are getting even cheaper,” Morning Brew, Oct. 29, 2024; Saleen Martin, “'Inflation-free' Thanksgiving: Walmart unveils discount holiday meal options for 2024,” USA Today, Oct. 16, 2024; Saleen Martin, “Dollar General's Thanksgiving deals: Try these buy 2, get 1 free options,” USA Today, Oct. 17, 2024; Chris Morris, “Aldi’s Thanksgiving meal deal can feed 10 people for just $47,” Fortune, Oct. 16, 2024.

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  13. Leon Pieters, Daniel Edsall, Ian Geddes, Stephen Rogers, and Justin Cook, “Food fight: Consumers confront inflation with frugality,” Deloitte Insights, Feb. 23, 2023; the latest data is available on the Deloitte ConsumerSignals Dashboard.

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  14. Deloitte ConsumerSignals survey of 2,000 US consumers, as of September 2024.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Abigail Slark, Sanjay Mallik Vadrevu, Sangharsh Shinde, and Srinivasarao Oguri for their contributions to this article. They additionally acknowledge the editorial and creative support of Abrar Khan, Shambhavi Shah, Sabrina Pietryga, and Blythe Hurley.