Rebound in holiday spending this year despite underlying consumer concerns

Toronto, October 15, 2024 – Canadians’ holiday spending is forecast to rise 10 per cent this season to $1,478, reversing last year’s decline—though still below levels of recent years ($1,520 in 2022, $1,706 in 2019).

According to Deloitte Canada’s 2024 Holiday Retail Outlook – The search for value: A season of cautious spending, the anticipated rebound in holiday spending is not necessarily driven by renewed consumer optimism. Canadians are as concerned about housing costs and rent increases (55%), paying for holiday gifts (35%), and credit card debt (31%) as they were last year. Canadians are also unsure if the economy in 2025 will worsen, improve, or remain the same—though fewer expect the economy to worsen compared to last year. The report also shows that two in three consumers expect higher prices this season, with inflation as the primary driver for how much consumers plan to spend this holiday season.

“This year’s holiday season will be marked by a critical search for the best deals, both in-store and online,” says Marty Weintraub, Partner, National Retail Leader at Deloitte Canada. “Canadians will be presented with an abundance of choice as they navigate an increasingly crowded retail landscape and a shorter, more competitive holiday shopping season.”

Other key findings include:

• Travel spending will be up 20 per cent this year and charitable donations will increase by 35 per cent, while spend in non-gift apparel is expected to see the largest decrease.

• Consumers expect to spend more of their holiday budget online (43%), especially from Amazon (71%), while Prime membership is at an all-time high.

• A growing number of consumers (30%) are exploring emerging eCommerce platforms such as Temu, Shein, and Alibaba, while some are even willing to shop directly through social media channels such as Instagram and TikTok, especially those aged 18-34.

• Canadians plan to spend 67 per cent of their holiday budget on or after Black Friday. However, retailers will have less than four highly competitive weeks to capture their share of consumers’ spending since Black Friday falls five days later this year.

• One in four Canadians have been impacted by a retailer data breach, driving 60 per cent of them to stop shopping or to shop less often at that retailer.

• Six in ten consumers are skeptical about GenAI, few are excited about it (19%), and others believe retailers should use it (18%).

“In an environment where constrained discretionary spending is likely to persist, we expect consumers to continue to gravitate to the retailers and platforms that meet their expectations for value. It will be important for retailers to pay attention to longer-term consumer trends such as new digital shopping destinations and social commerce. Effectively adapting to these changing consumer behaviours and attitudes will be vital as retailers look forward to focusing on growth after a challenging few years.”

Learn more about the 2024 Holiday Retail Outlook.

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