chemical industry outlook

洞察解析

2015 全球化學產業併購展望

併購熱潮持續

綜觀2014年,全球化學產業業者藉由調整產品組合 (portfolio realignment)以強健公司體質,同時因低利率創造有利的公司債市場,促使化學產業的併購數量與金額創下新高,預期此熱潮將持續,於2015年達到新高點

Executive Summary

Global chemical mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity is expected to remain buoyant in 2016, building on the strong momentum experienced in 2015, with continued portfolio realignment and consolidation plays in various segments. Companies have an increased focus on developing their core strengths and are looking to acquisitions to deliver growth and greater shareholder value.

In 2016, key chemical segments of fertilizers and agriculture chemicals, diversified, and industrial gases are all likely to experience an uptick in M&A transactions. Higher deal volumes are likely as companies use M&A as a tactic to deliver growth to counter challenging business conditions, which are expected to continue in these segments. Moving into 2016, these segments may also see transformational moves, especially after current portfolio adjustments and spin-offs underway are completed. Additionally, competitive pressure to build scale within all segments may drive further activity.

Other trends driving the increasing portfolio change are tax-free spin-offs and divestitures, as companies position themselves for innovation and growth. “The spin-off momentum is likely to continue in 2016, given the often low tax basis in legacy businesses, resulting in tax-free spins delivering greater shareholder value than straight dispositions,” says Duane Dickson, Deloitte Global Leader, Chemicals & Specialty Materials Sector. “Digital design and Advanced Manufacturing open up new frontiers for materials innovation and potentially threaten historical volumes in some commodities.”

2016 Global chemical industry mergers and acquisitions outlook

2014年全球化學產業併購交易表現強勁,共計635件的交易量創造了778億美金的交易價值。展望2015年,勤業眾信製造產業團隊發布了《2015 全球化學併購展望 (Global chemical industry mergers and acquisitions outlook)》,預測今年的化學產業的併購交易百尺竿頭,更進一步,廠商將持續調整產品組合與追求非有機類商品獲利機會以強健公司體質,同時,低利率環境更有利於透過公司債籌資,亦使併購交易變得更加誘人。

放眼2015,報告預期關鍵化學市場的併購交易將可維持成長態勢,包括大宗化學品(commodities)、化學中介品(intermediates)與特用化學品(specialties)、肥料(fertilizers)與農用化學品(agricultural chemical),以及工業用氣體(industrial gases)。此外,化學產業益發重視應用生物科技(biotechnology)和可再生品(renewables)的趨勢亦是促進併購交易的催化劑。企業傾向在原有商品的製程與新商品開發過程中採用生物技術,預測這些公司將會透過企業合資或是併購的途徑來獲得此類高新技術。

樂觀之餘,仍需留意近期油價格驟跌可能導致的化學產業鏈震盪以及部份新興國家經濟的不穩定性對併購動能有潛在的負面影響。

全球各主要經濟區域的併購活動預期將有不同表現:

  • 美洲:美國受惠於穩健的經濟成長,2015年的交易將可望增加;低廉的原料與能源成本也將吸引更多的海外投資者。然而,也需留意美元升值對海外買家評估交易所造成的影響以及近期油價下跌可能抵銷美國為本的資產所享有的原料的優勢。另一方面,南美洲的交易趨勢則未如美國,經濟不穩的巴西,併購活動預估將呈現和緩走勢。
  • 歐洲:兩大經濟體─英國和德國今年的交易情況預計將延續2014年的現象,仍以中、小型的交易為主。在德國,數個主要企業已引進有利於併購的新型組織結構;英國則隨著經濟逐步復甦以及私募基金與公、私營公司的擴大參與而使併購交易更加活絡。
  • 亞太:因應糧食生產需求,農化品市場的併購交易將在中國市場扮演重大角色;日本企業為了擺脫低毛利的大宗化學品,預估將透過精密與生科化學品市場(fine and life science chemicals)的併購尋求更高獲利;印度的產業併購活動也將增加,預期多數將來自海外買主的跨境併購。
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