2015 全球化學產業併購展望

Executive Summary

The global chemical industry has experienced several years of strong M&A activity, as companies pursued growth, realigned their portfolios, and focused on core competencies. Questions abound: Have consolidation and portfolio realignment achieved their goals for the industry? Will activist investors drive the course of the M&A activities? Will state-owned enterprises begin to impact deal activity? Have valuations driven acquirers out of the market? The 2018 Global chemical industry M&A outlook answers these questions and others.

Regional outlook

• A robust M&A market in the US chemical industry is expected in the coming years as the new tax legislation will provide US-based companies with additional cash flow for investment or other purposes.
• China outbound activity in 2018 is expected to be at the same level or slightly higher than 2017 due to new opportunities arising from the “Belt & Road” initiative; domestic transactions are expected to remain strong as smaller players are acquired in efforts to reduce capacity and increase profitability.
• Despite the uncertainties of Brexit, the UK is expected to remain an attractive market for both corporate and financial buyers in the near-term.
• Deal volume in Germany is anticipated to continue at high levels as companies use their strong earnings to increase their competitiveness through expanding scale, closing portfolio or technology gaps or entering into new customer groups. 
• In the Netherlands, 2018 may be an active year for some larger transactions as large Dutch players have shown an appetite for both divestitures and acquisitions.
• Despite uncertainties such as the entry of shale gas-based chemical products and business into the Japanese market, high levels of M&A activity are expected to continue among Japanese chemical manufacturers in 2018.
• Economic and political uncertainty are likely to have kept foreign buyers from investing in Brazil. Yet, the overall growth forecast, expected favorable exchange rates, higher infrastructure investments and favorable tax rates have started to rekindle investor interest in Brazil´s long-term potential. Activity in 2018 may be higher than in prior years.

Sector outlook

• In the commodity chemicals sector, the continued emergence of state-owned enterprises and traditional oil and gas companies moving downstream is likely to propel scale and synergy-driven M&A plays as well as portfolio rebalancing amongst traditional commodity chemical players to stay competitive. This and other factors will likely drive another active year in M&A in 2018 in this sector.
• In the coatings sub-sector, the flurry of activity highlighted the strong M&A appetite among some of the largest players, despite it being an already comparatively consolidated sub-sector. It is likely that 2018 will see further M&A activity, potentially with involvement from private equity.
• With the adhesive and sealants sub-sector still relatively fragmented, there is likely to be continued consolidation in 2018.
• In industrial gases, 2018 will likely be a fairly quiet year, with the exception of some potentially significant regulatory driven divestitures.
• While the fertilizer and agricultural chemicals sector is largely consolidated, 2018 is likely to hold continued competition regulator mandated divestitures and portfolio realignment arising from past mega-deals, however, further mega-deals in this sector are likely to be limited.

Deloitte’s 360˚M&A experience

Bringing organizations together through mergers and acquisitions, or carving them out through separations and divestitures, are among the most complex business activities an organization will ever undertake. Deloitte is the only professional services firm that can advise strategic corporate buyers and private equity investors throughout the entire M&A deal life cycle with over 6000 advisors in over 150 countries. From conceiving strategy to selecting the right partner. From conducting thorough due diligence to closing the deal. From beginning to end, we align our services to address transactions, integration, and separation needs, all with the goal of generating value for our clients.

Previous versions

• 2017 Global chemical industry mergers and acquisitions outlook
• 2016 Global chemical industry mergers and acquisitions outlook
• 2015 Global chemical industry mergers and acquisitions outlook

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2014年全球化學產業併購交易表現強勁，共計635件的交易量創造了778億美金的交易價值。展望2015年，勤業眾信製造產業團隊發布了《2015 全球化學併購展望 (Global chemical industry mergers and acquisitions outlook)》，預測今年的化學產業的併購交易百尺竿頭，更進一步，廠商將持續調整產品組合與追求非有機類商品獲利機會以強健公司體質，同時，低利率環境更有利於透過公司債籌資，亦使併購交易變得更加誘人。

放眼2015，報告預期關鍵化學市場的併購交易將可維持成長態勢，包括大宗化學品(commodities)、化學中介品(intermediates)與特用化學品(specialties)、肥料(fertilizers)與農用化學品(agricultural chemical)，以及工業用氣體(industrial gases)。此外，化學產業益發重視應用生物科技(biotechnology)和可再生品(renewables)的趨勢亦是促進併購交易的催化劑。企業傾向在原有商品的製程與新商品開發過程中採用生物技術，預測這些公司將會透過企業合資或是併購的途徑來獲得此類高新技術。

樂觀之餘，仍需留意近期油價格驟跌可能導致的化學產業鏈震盪以及部份新興國家經濟的不穩定性對併購動能有潛在的負面影響。

全球各主要經濟區域的併購活動預期將有不同表現：

• 美洲：美國受惠於穩健的經濟成長，2015年的交易將可望增加；低廉的原料與能源成本也將吸引更多的海外投資者。然而，也需留意美元升值對海外買家評估交易所造成的影響以及近期油價下跌可能抵銷美國為本的資產所享有的原料的優勢。另一方面，南美洲的交易趨勢則未如美國，經濟不穩的巴西，併購活動預估將呈現和緩走勢。
• 歐洲：兩大經濟體─英國和德國今年的交易情況預計將延續2014年的現象，仍以中、小型的交易為主。在德國，數個主要企業已引進有利於併購的新型組織結構；英國則隨著經濟逐步復甦以及私募基金與公、私營公司的擴大參與而使併購交易更加活絡。
• 亞太：因應糧食生產需求，農化品市場的併購交易將在中國市場扮演重大角色；日本企業為了擺脫低毛利的大宗化學品，預估將透過精密與生科化學品市場(fine and life science chemicals)的併購尋求更高獲利；印度的產業併購活動也將增加，預期多數將來自海外買主的跨境併購。