The search for value
A season of cautious spending
Our 2024 holiday retail outlook may give retailers cause for cautious optimism around spend
this season, with consumers shopping for value, trust, and transparency above all else.
Consumers have had another challenging year of disruption and persistent macroeconomic conditions.
Increased inflation, rising debts, and threats of a potential recession have all materialized into
more selective budgets for the Canadian shopper. Despite the shorter shopping season ahead,
consumers will be more cautious, searching for retailers who check value and convenience off their
wish lists.
Rise of the selective shopper
Holiday spending is forecasted to increase, but customers are being more discerning about where
they invest their dollars.
Shopping season shortens, and competition rises
Retailers will have a competitive 3.5 weeks to win consumers as most shoppers look to spend
their budgets on or after Black Friday.
Consumers explore new digital shopping platforms
Online marketplaces and social commerce are growing in popularity, as well as new, more
wallet-friendly e-commerce platforms.
Data breaches may cause consumer trust to waver
Privacy and data security concerns are top-of-mind as Canadians shop online.
Many consumers are skeptical of Generative AI
Younger shoppers are more likely to adopt GenAI and use it for their shopping experience, but
many Canadians still don’t trust it.
Rise of the selective shopper
Although consumers are spending more than last year, budgets are still tight. Many have consistent
economic concerns which will impact what they buy and how they spend their money this holiday
season.
+10%
Spending is up 10%, but still behind pre-pandemic levels (-13% from 2019)
65%
believe prices are higher this year than last
55%
are concerned about rising housing and rental costs
Shopping season shortens, and competition rises
Consumers' search for value will lead to a shorter shopping season as they hold off spending the
bulk
of their budgets on or after Black Friday.
48%
will shop on Black Friday
22%
of the holiday budget will be spent on Black Friday
42%
believe the best deals are available on Black Friday
Retailer: ICYMI
Retailers must fine-tune marketing and promotional tactics to drive early and Black Friday sales,
ensuring they stock the right products and meet delivery expectations during this exceptionally busy
shopping season.
67% of the consumer budget will be spent on or after Black Friday, leaving a 3.5-week runway for
retailers.
Consumers explore new digital shopping platforms
Consumers expect to spend an increasing share of their holiday budget online. In their search for
value, consumers are shopping at various competitive marketplaces, including new digital and social
commerce platforms.
43%
of holiday budgets will be spent online
51%
are Amazon Prime members
33%
have shopped on emerging platforms in the past three months (Temu/Alibaba/Shein)
40%
of shoppers aged 18-34 are open to shopping on Instagram
Retailers: ICYMI
This shopping season, retailers should closely monitor and consider testing emerging shopping
alternatives such as social commerce to engage younger shoppers.
Data breaches may cause consumer trust to waver
One in four consumers have been impacted by a retailer data breach, driving 60% of consumers to
either stop shopping or shop less often at impacted retailers. Consumers are placing more value on
privacy and security in their online shopping experiences.
24%
have been impacted by a retailer data breach
21%
stopped shopping at retailers they experienced a data breach at
Retailers: ICYMI
In the face of data breaches and security risks, retailers must sharpen cybersecurity measures and align
them with efforts to build and maintain consumer confidence.
Many consumers are skeptical of Generative AI
51% of consumers believe they understand GenAI. But our data shows that overall, only 15% of
Canadians trust GenAI, and more than half are concerned about the future it holds.
59%
are concerned about the future of GenAI technology
33%
have used a GenAI tool in the past three months
Although budgets are a bit bigger, 'tis the season of cautious spending for most consumers.
Retailers who offer value and transparency will find themselves on top this year. Unwrap the trends
and insights defining Canada’s 2024 holiday retail landscape.
Key contact
Marty Weintraub
National Retail Leader
Marty leads the National Retail Consulting practice for Canada. For
the past 20 years, he has advised retail clients on developing and
implementing enterprise-wide retail transformation and operational
improvement programs that impact business processes, organization
designs and technology enablement. These programs result in his
clients realizing significant improvements to sales, margin, SG&A and
working capital in a world of retailing where traditional ways of
operating are no longer sufficient.