A deeper understanding of ecosystem dynamics
To use indirect tools effectively, government leaders should have a detailed understanding of how specific innovation ecosystems work.
But this understanding can be hard to achieve, especially for government leaders who can only see their own portions of the system. “The big gap for government leaders is an understanding of market behavior,” says Patrick Littlefield, former executive director of the Department of Veterans Affairs Center for Innovation.21
The power of government incentives can make them keen to play a coordinating role in innovation, for instance, but those same incentives can put them out of step with the rest of the players. The scale of government purchases means they can play a key role in helping a natural market develop. But “for founders and startups it’s all go all the time,” says Robert Wines, a senior analyst at Fedtech. “They need government to provide the IP, but government operates on a different timescale, so meshing those together can be hard.”22
To catalyze innovation the way the government wants and the public demands, government leaders may need some help in managing these complex ecosystems.
Deploying new tools for a new era of innovation
Each innovation ecosystem is different. The quantum computing industry has different players with different incentives than the semiconductor or renewable energy industries. So rather than a specific playbook, what government could use is a repeatable process to determine how and when to use which tools.
It’s like finding your way through the woods. The specific map you need could change depending on where in the world you are, but the basic principles of land navigation stay the same and can help you get around wherever you are.
To help catalyze innovation, that repeatable process typically includes:
- Identifying players and deciding collectively on goals;
- Understanding players’ risks and incentives; and
- Crafting interventions to shape market behavior.
By following these steps, government leaders can help steer a complex mix of players with different risks, incentives, and abilities toward innovation.
1. Identify players and decide collectively on goals
Why? Innovating presupposes that we know what problems to solve. In public innovation, the problem is compounded by the number of different players who may have different perspectives on what “good” means. Does it mean better performance, cheaper costs, or something entirely different? For private institutions, a strategic plan can help answer those questions, but for public innovation, the “good” can only be defined collectively. There may be disagreements, but just as communities make collective decisions about budgets, they can and should make collective decisions about their priorities for innovation.
Tools: For centuries, communities of all sizes have used different consensus-forming tools to decide on collective visions. These can include political processes, such as the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy’s national strategies for various technologies, or new, tech-driven collaborative vehicles, such as the vTaiwan platform the government of Taiwan uses to build consensus on important issues such internet regulation.23 But it can also mean simply convening the key players in the same room.
See it in action: Collective decision-making can be relatively easy in small groups, but how can we reach collective decisions at the scale of industries or even whole regions? That was the challenge facing Dr. Erwin Gianchandani, the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) assistant director for Technology, Innovation and Partnerships, as he and his colleagues, including the director of NSF, Dr. Sethuraman Panchanathan, sought to catalyze “innovation engines”—regional coalitions to engage in R&D, bring their innovations to society, and develop the workforce needed to apply them.24 The answer turned out to be building it into the program itself. As communities applied to receive funding to create regional innovation engines, they were steered toward creating structures for their bids that would force collective decision-making. As Dr. Gianchandani describes: “It’s certainly important for all the participants in that engine to work together around a clear vision. That’s built into the format and the governance structure of the NSF Engines. Within an NSF engine, we want a CEO who is empowered to drive things forward and bring together different players—different advisory groups and org structures each engine should possess. There’s a governance board responsible for gathering that consensus from all participants within the NSF engine, and then there’s an advisory board used to gather input from those outside the NSF engine.”25
2. Understand the players’ risk and incentives
Why? Agreeing on desired outcomes is important, but it’s only the first step. For example, the cybersecurity of critical infrastructure is widely seen as a desirable outcome—yet we’ve made little progress in the 30 years since it became a policy priority.26 This continued vulnerability isn’t because people don’t understand that cybersecurity is important, it’s because many of the players have conflicting incentives.27
The same can be true in innovation. We saw earlier how players’ diverging incentives can result in promising innovations being driven overseas or failing in the “valley of death.” Government leaders should understand the risks and incentives facing all the players in the ecosystem.
The first step toward coordinating players is the creation of a new organization or business process. Yet historical evidence shows that these don’t tend to work well, especially at scale. Federal use of “Other Transaction Authority,” for instance, may help speed acquisition, but it has largely failed to attract large numbers of nontraditional vendors because it doesn’t address their risks and incentives.28 As startup founder Matt Wren says, “simply creating yet another bureaucratic rapid prototyping organization is not going to solve the problem. Startups, particularly innovative technology companies, need direct access to customers and a clear path to revenue.”29
To better understand the incentives facing real people, you often have to interact with them. That ability to use real human relationships to bridge groups is what makes the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency program managers successful, and it works in other areas of innovation as well.30 Allison Winstel, chief of staff of the hardtech innovation center mHUB, which has helped 450+ startups launch over 1,500 products, raise US$1.49B in capital, and hire over 5,190 employees, attributes this success to personal connections and understanding each stakeholder’s incentives: “At mHUB, we understand that accelerating innovation is a collaborative effort. We’ve built an ecosystem across startups, industry, investors, and community partners, all which play a role in catalyzing change and building structure around a common challenge. The key is creating mutually beneficial partnerships, which means that we need to think about what each stakeholder values in relation to a shared challenge to create a shared vision of how to tackle it. Our most successful and longer-term partnerships come out of thinking about what each partner will gain—whether it’s access to talent or new technologies or deal flow or something else—and what will bring the greatest value to our startup community. Ultimately, it’s relationship building and aligning stakeholders. Talking with people to understand their values and incentives comes out in conversation faster than you think.”31
Government can’t simply require people to build new relationships. But it can create the rules and infrastructure that encourage individuals to span multiple groups. These “bridgebuilders” can help uncover each player’s incentives and goals. That’s what the NSF aims to do with the Regional Innovation Engines program, as Gianchandani says: “At the core of every innovation engine is a set of organizations that we want to bring together: universities, industry, nonprofits and so on. We want them to come together organically yet also intentionally and give rise to an innovation ecosystem, and hopefully that will become self-sustaining. But that transition will require support and capacity-building.”
“For example, we know that certain capabilities are important. It’s important to have a CEO for the NSF engine. It’s important to think about diversity, equity, and inclusion. It’s important to think about measures of success, to think about we how evaluate the work we’re doing, and so on.”
“The Builder Platform is NSF’s attempt to create a common set of resources and capabilities that we can provide to each engine so that the engine itself can provide those needed resources to the ecosystem. It’s designed to be a human-centered network, connecting real people in the innovation engines with real people with the capital, data, partners, and other tools the engines need to spur innovation.”32
Tools: Government leaders can use numerous tools to get an accurate picture of the risks and incentives of an innovation ecosystem. These can include any tools that help bring structure to the complex mix of economic and social forces that shape markets—political economy analysis, causal loop diagrams, user feedback, qualitative interviews, and more. The precise tool or mix of tools could vary with the specific situation.
See it in action: Just as emerging technologies may need to attract external investment, so too must emerging market nations attract capital investment to grow their economies. For decades, the government of Georgia sought to spur economic growth, but lacked the infrastructure needed to encourage modern, flexible capital markets. In working with the US Agency for International Development, the Georgian government followed a three-step path to craft interventions to its capital markets.
First, it identified the interested stakeholders and analyzed their interactions. Next, root-cause analysis helped illustrate how the players’ competing incentives combined to hinder market development. Finally, the team was able to show the interactions between these various root causes to choose which interventions were most likely to be effective. Using these findings, Georgia’s parliament crafted the 2020 Law on Investment Funds, which helped lay the foundation for more vibrant capital markets and greater economic growth (figure 2).33
This figure shows the connections among root causes of capital market constraints. The more interconnected the causes, the bigger the problem they can create for the investment funds ecosystem—portrayed graphically in the size of the bubble.