For consumers, splurges aren’t just lipstick has been saved
The authors would like to thank Marcello Gasdia, Kusum Manoj Raimalani, Anup Raju, Jagadish Upadhyaya, Ram Sangadi, and Srinivasarao Oguri.
Cover image by: Sofia Sergi
United States
United States
United States
United States
United States
United States
It’s generally known as the “lipstick index.” When economic times are tough, people tend to choose affordable luxuries—like cosmetics—to treat themselves.1 Commentators speculate that these purchases are driven by their relative affordability and the consumer’s desire for escapism.2 Right now, several global economies are, if not technically in recession, certainly challenged. And sales of lipsticks, perfumes, and other cosmetics are indeed up.3
It is a catchy, logical theory backed by current sales data. But, true or not, the lipstick index does not capture the whole picture of consumer splurging, perhaps not even some of the most important parts of it.
Over six months, we asked consumers in 23 countries if they were making purchases to treat themselves. We created a database with nearly 150,000 consumer descriptions of their splurge purchases, including what they bought, how much they spent, and why they bought it. These efforts revealed that consumers are treating themselves much more than expected.4 We also uncovered several myth-busting data points that reveal a significantly richer story. These observations suggest The bourbon barometer may be a more accurate reflection of these splurge behaviors.
Motives for purchases don’t show up in GDP statistics or cash register data. There is no comprehensive global accounting of dollars spent by consumers treating themselves. But consumers know when they are doing it. From our data, splurging to treat yourself is generally a worldwide phenomenon. Over three in four consumers surveyed globally say they made a splurge purchase over the past month, despite only 42% saying they can afford to spend on something that brings them joy (figure 1). In countries like the United States, Sweden, Canada, and Australia, it is closer to 80% of consumers. Japanese consumers treat themselves the least, but nearly half still made a splurge purchase in the previous month.
Younger and wealthier consumers are somewhat more likely to treat themselves, but high levels of splurging happen across age and income groups. Given this mass participation, these purchases can add up to significant consumer spending.
Suppose the lipstick index is the poster child of splurge purchases during tough economic times. In that case, we picture a female consumer buying cosmetics as an affordable luxury and temporary escape from financial woes. But consider the following:
Consider a new picture of splurging: A millennial male treating themselves to a nice dinner out to relax—which also solves a practical problem like hunger—or stocking up on premium spirits to purchase an accessible luxury. Perhaps along with the lipstick index, we should all be talking about the bourbon barometer.
Splurges are often described as providing an escape or a simple luxury. However, across all our categories, more consumers tell us they seek comfort and relaxation (i.e., stress relief). Surprisingly though, these purchases aren’t entirely about hedonic drivers. Consumers seem to need to justify splurge purchases as practical and long-lasting (i.e., of utilitarian value).
But discussing drivers becomes more valuable within a particular category and a given price point. Two examples from the United States illustrate valuable patterns that can emerge.
The reasons why consumers report that they splurge on apparel seem to shift around the US$100 price point (figure 4). Below US$100, clothing purchases are justified as practical additions to a wardrobe that will last a long time and provide comfort. After US$100, a new dynamic starts to kick in. The need for the purchase to be practical starts to plummet, and self-expression becomes much more important. Escapism, long associated with splurges, isn’t a driving factor.
Even within lipstick's category, personal care, consumers indicate they are generally more interested in wellness than glamour when treating themselves. Our data indicates purchases in this category are usually about comfort and relaxation. Consumers may be treating themselves with health and wellness-oriented products to help alleviate current economic stresses. Like with apparel, at higher price points, the drivers change somewhat. Practical drivers start to drop off, and a chance to try something new generally ramps up steadily with higher prices, as does self-expression. Again, escapism does not seem to play much of a role.
Many companies orient their marketing efforts around “occasions” and “life events.”8 The “splurge occasion” could open up the opportunity for retailers to capture new sales from consumers buying to treat themselves. If they have a deeper understanding of what consumers seek during these occasions, retailers may be able to monetize the demand by creating personalized messaging content geared to consumers’ drivers. For example, focusing marketing efforts on a scarf’s fashionable attributes may be tempting. Still, under US$100, it may be more effective to lure customers by also tying in the practicality of the purchase. And in the personal care space, splurging is generally happening around wellness, but emphasizing newness and novelty could motivate higher-priced purchases.
Our data has painted a new picture of a splurge purchase. Whether it’s called the lipstick index or the bourbon barometer, one constant is that consumers generally relieve the pressures of frugality by occasionally treating themselves. For retailers, avoiding stereotypes and broadening their understanding of the drivers of these occasions can prompt splurge sales of all kinds.
Pamela N. Danziger, “With recession threatening, the lipstick effect kicks in and lipstick sales rise,” Forbes, June 1, 2022.
View in ArticleAvery Hartmans, “The ‘lipstick index’ says people buy more makeup when times get tough. Here’s where it comes from—and whether it can really predict a recession,” Business Insider, August 9, 2022.
View in ArticleJinjoo Lee, “The lipstick index is back,” Wall Street Journal, November 24, 2022.
View in ArticleDeloitte, “Deloitte's ConsumerSignals,” accessed April 19, 2023.
View in ArticleDeloitte analysis, based on ConsumerSignals—US consumers’ median spend on treating themselves.
View in ArticleRachel Arthur, “Premiumization continues to drive US alcohol sales,” Beverage Daily, January 12, 2023.
View in ArticleDeloitte, “2023 CAGNY conference highlights: Key trends in the consumer products industry,” accessed April 19, 2023.
View in ArticleThe authors would like to thank Marcello Gasdia, Kusum Manoj Raimalani, Anup Raju, Jagadish Upadhyaya, Ram Sangadi, and Srinivasarao Oguri.
Cover image by: Sofia Sergi