China Health Ecosystem 2030: A Scenarios Analysis

Deloitte China today releases China Health Ecosystem 2030: A Scenarios Analysis, a new study mapping the future of health in China by analyzing four scenarios that show how domestic and multinational pharma companies and other participants in the extended health ecosystem can assess its risks and opportunities to achieve sustainable development.

With people aged 65 or older forecast to make up almost 17% of the country's population by 2030, a rapidly aging population means improving health care matters more than ever for the Chinese Government. Over the past decade, China has implemented major reforms to promote access to health care, infrastructure investment, universal health care funding, and value chain consolidation.

Deloitte China Life Sciences & Health Care Industry Leader Jens Ewert says, "Building on the progress of the past decade, China aspires to develop a sustainable health care system amid an increasingly aging society. The Healthy China 2030 program is an ambitious blueprint for transforming China's health care, with a series of core aspirations and principles for the future of health."

The pandemic has highlighted the urgency of health care transformation to tackle issues such as under-developed diagnosis and primary care capabilities, strained funding, the widening gap between demand and supply, and disparities in the quality and accessibility of health care across China.

"With health and wellness now fully embedded into policy-making at all levels, we are seeing increased emphasis on establishing comprehensive, multi-tiered health systems aimed at driving health management for all, while minimizing gaps in the quality of care between urban and rural populations. On top of this, disruptive and innovative health care models that combine tech, digital, and life sciences innovation are enabling more efficient delivery," Ewert adds.

Four scenarios for China's health ecosystem in 2030

According to Deloitte's research and interviews with thought leaders and executives in China’s health care industry, the future of health in China will feature six mega trends: tiered health care; the rise of diversified funding models; innovation clusters; social-demographic shifts; empowered consumers; and smart health care.

Chart 1 – Mega trends of future China health care

Deloitte Consulting China Chief Strategy Officer Jiaming Li says, "To examine how China's health care will evolve by 2030, we have developed a framework for scenario analysis based on critical uncertainties across social, technological, economic, environmental, and political aspects, enabling various players to better navigate China's future health ecosystem and achieve sustainable growth by assessing strategic opportunities and risks."

Deloitte Consulting China Partner David Xie says, "Based on supply and demand dimensions-- transformation of consumer needs and behaviors, extent and variety of market participation in health ecosystem, we have mapped out four major scenarios for the future of China's health ecosystem: national infrastructure boom, precision health care innovation, thriving consumerization, and smart population health."

With the degree of openness in policy regulation and the adoption speed of innovative technologies, any or a combination of these scenarios could happen by 2030 or even sooner. The central theme underlying these scenarios is the importance of placing the design of a compelling, innovative health care experience and empowering consumers at the heart of health care strategies. New business models are essential to prepare for this more customer-centric future of health, as data, technology, and analytics have become core competencies.

Chart 2 – Four scenarios of China health ecosystem 2030

Building China's future of health

The report also explores how incumbents and disruptors in health care can come together to propel the transformation of China's health care industry.

Aspiring future of health players will foster boundless innovations rooted in seamless collaboration, as the digitization of operating and business models realizes the full potential of possibilities for digitized, shared health care. Bold new policies and regulations will also be pivotal to catalyzing these health care systems.

Deloitte Consulting China Partner Lei Duan says, "As an important stakeholder of the health care industry, commercial insurance companies have been driving forward innovation in health insurance products while playing an active role in building a larger health ecosystem. They are also promoting integration between payment and services, creating a unique managed care business model with Chinese characteristics."

Xie concludes, "The four future scenarios show fundamentally different pathways toward realizing the Healthy China 2030 goals, all of which require systemic transformations of the health ecosystem. Every sector of this ecosystem requires responsive, agile leadership as they collectively shape this vital industry."