Economic outlook

Key facts

• Respondents expect average GDP growth of 2% in 2020, 0.3% less than in 2019.
  
• A significant majority of CFOs (83%) expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise in 2020, 1pp more than in 2019
  
• The largest share of CFOs (40%) expect no change in unemployment levels during 2020. However, the share of those expecting an increase grew to 36% in 2020, up from 13% in 2018 and 21% in 2019.
   

CFO Confidence Index

The CFO Confidence Index has fallen significantly for the second year in a row. As recently as 2018 it stood at 23%, before falling by 7 percentage points (pp) to 16% in 2019. This time it fell again – by 7pp to 9%. In short, CFOs have become considerably less optimistic about the future over the last two years.

GDP

The average expected GDP growth for 2020 is 2%, compared to 2.3% in 2019. There has been a 10pp fall in the proportion of CFOs expecting GDP to be at more than 2.5%. In 2020, 30% expect GDP to exceed 2.5%, down from 40% in 2019. In a very significant decline, just 10% of CFOs in Eurozone countries expect GDP to increase by more than 2.5%, down from 48% in 2019.

Unemployment

We have seen an increase in the proportion of CFOs expecting unemployment figures to rise, and 36% now expect an increase in 2020. Predictions of ‘no change’ have remained stable since 2017, and 40% of respondents went for this option in 2020. Predictions in this area by CFOs in Eurozone countries differ somewhat those in other countries, with 51% of Eurozone respondents predicting no change in unemployment and 28% expecting a rise.

Consumer Price Index

As in last year’s survey, the majority of CFOs expect growth in Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation (83% in 2020 and 82% in 2019).