2024 Global Health Care Sector Outlook

By Sara Siegel, Deloitte Global Health Care Sector Leader

As we embark on a new year, generative artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to take on a larger role in administrative tasks, diagnosis and treatment decisions, and overall patient satisfaction (see Deloitte Global’s 2024 Global Health Care sector outlook). Health care organizations around the world are evaluating potential AI use-cases and are trying to determine the potential return on investment (ROI).

Although there is a good deal of excitement about AI among health care leaders, some employees are less than enthusiastic. This apprehension seems counter-intuitive given that most applications will likely allow clinical staff to spend more time providing direct care to patients, which is often why they chose a career in health. On the other hand, the trepidation is understandable. Electronic health records (EHRs) were introduced in the 1970s with a similar promise.¹ While EHRs did help reduce paperwork, the need to maintain adequate clinical documentation created new administrative headaches for employees.² Overall, physicians now spend an average of 15.5 hours per week on paperwork and administration—of that, an average of nine hours is spent on EHR documentation.³ Moreover, physicians in nine out of 10 developed countries surveyed—Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States—are dissatisfied with a range of issues, including too little time spent with patients and too much time spent on administrative work. (Switzerland was the only country in which physician satisfaction was high.)⁴

Despite the potential to reduce or remove tasks that can contribute to burnout, some clinicians might be concerned about losing a certain amount of power to AI when it comes to clinical decision-making. An AI-powered transcription technology, for example, might record a physician’s conversation with a patient and automatically add it to the patient’s medical record. Today, clinicians generally have complete control over patient data. There also appears to be a feeling among some clinical staff that they are not being properly consulted about the use of AI in their organizations.

In addition, some health care employees may worry that the emerging technology could wind up eliminating jobs. However, there are not nearly enough health care workers in the world to meet growing demand. Increased recruitment efforts and more training will likely not be enough to solve the health care workforce challenge. Rather than looking at AI as a risk, health care workers should view it as a tool that can help them be more productive and consistent while helping them improve patient outcomes and satisfaction. I see AI as being on par with the introduction of personal computers and laptops, which are now omnipresent in virtually every health care facility around the world. In the future, people from the health sector may look back on 2024 and marvel that we did certain tasks manually…just the way we sometimes wonder how ever we lived without smartphones.

Regulatory guardrails are being established

While AI has the potential to touch virtually every industry, it poses unique challenges for health care. The use of AI in decision-making, claims processing, or care decisions, for example, can create a new level of risk given its potential to impact patient care, safety, and civil rights/non-discrimination. Governments worldwide are working to establish effective rules and regulations. The European Union (EU) appears to be leading the charge. The EU established a regulatory framework for AI in 2021, and final rules could be implemented this year.⁵

In the United States, President Biden signed an executive order (EO) aimed at setting some ground rules for the use of AI. It calls on the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to establish a task force to develop a strategic plan on the responsible deployment and use of AI and AI-enabled technologies for health care organizations that receive federal funding. Other federal agencies are establishing their own rules around the appropriate use of AI, which could further impact health care organizations.⁶

How is AI being used in different countries?

Globally, many health care organizations are experimenting with generative AI (or at least considering it). Some are moving quickly, while others are being more cautious. Here’s a look at how the technology is being used for health care around the world:

• Czech Republic: At the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, Deloitte Czech Republic developed a cloud-based virtual contact center called IRENA (Immediate Refugee Need Assistance) that uses AI-enabled conversations with a virtual agent in any language the patient chooses. As refugees fled across Europe in the early days of the war, IRENA handled 10,000 calls daily, with as many as 80% managed automatically.
  
• Finland: The country began a major overhaul of its health care system in 2023. The government is building a digitized system that pledges to deliver services that are both personalized and cost-effective by emphasizing preventive care that could keep 80% of the population healthy by 2030. That can allow for additional support for the 20% of patients who need disease treatment or other more extensive care. As part of this effort, Finland anticipates that 80% of its citizens will be using digital identification by the end of the decade, and each citizen will have access to digital medical records and e-health services.⁷
  
• Israel: The Sheba Medical Center in Tel Aviv is using an AI tool that quickly diagnoses heart-related issues. Using a portable ultrasound probe and a computer tablet, treatment costs between US$2,500 to US$6,000—far less than the cost of an echocardiography machine.⁸
  
• Japan: A generative AI tool is helping clinicians in Japan summarize highly detailed preliminary interviews of patients. The Ubie Medical Navi platform replaces paper medical questionnaires with digital forms and can tailor preliminary interviews based on a patient’s symptoms. After answering 20-30 questions related to their symptoms and lifestyle habits, the tool automatically summarizes the answers and sends the information to the clinical staff.⁹
  
• Taiwan: The China Medical University Hospital in Taiwan deployed an intelligent microbial system into clinical practice in 2022. The AI tool identified a disease-causing pathogen in lab samples in as little as one hour, compared with 72 hours for standard tests. The tool reduced antibiotic costs by 25% and improved patient mortality.¹⁰

Can AI democratize health care?

The widespread adoption of generative AI could contribute to a global democratization of medicine. Unlike the early EHRs, which were expensive and required costly IT systems,¹¹ generative AI can be implemented in any health care facility without a large capital outlay. That could help make health care more equitable and accessible. Additionally, use-cases developed in one place could be transported to other locations so innovation can spread quickly, despite data restrictions that exist in health care.

The global health care sector generated more than 2.3 zettabytes of data in 2020 (a zettabyte contains 1 billion terabytes).¹² AI could help the sector use this information more effectively. By using centralized clinical data, health care providers can create a more comprehensive picture of the patient, while producing more consistent results and reducing the cost of care. Being able to quickly synthesize vast amounts of data could help predict outcomes based on a patient’s unique health profiles, recommend treatment options to both patients and providers, and alert clinicians to concerns such as contraindicated medicine or allergies.¹³ Imagine having AI trained on millions of patient records from people who have similar symptoms. This tool could help clinicians identify the best treatment with a high level of confidence. The technology might also be able to quickly summarize a patient's entire EHR for an emergency medical technician. More accurate diagnoses could mean less intervention is needed. The technology can offer health care organizations a chance to personalize patient interactions and treatment, taking pressures off clinicians for routine care, and enabling them to focus on the procedures that require their expertise and training.

Health care consumers are becoming much more technically savvy in their ability to find answers to their questions (see Can GenAI help make health care affordable? Consumers think so). Generative AI could give them access to synthesized data about their own health. Some patients might self-diagnose an illness and determine a care path for themselves. AI might also help broaden access to lower-cost care options through retail environments. In addition, consumers are increasingly monitoring their overall health and exercise patterns with AI-equipped smartphones and watches and are increasing their focus on prevention.¹⁴

Conclusion

AI has the potential to transform health care by optimizing both administrative functions and care delivery. It could have financial and non-financial benefits for the global health system, such as improved care quality, enhanced patient experience, and greater clinician satisfaction.

In 2024, however, companies should take steps to ensure AI is deployed responsibly and that its use and processes are transparent and auditable. Organizations that don’t build this into their AI strategy, risk alienating patients, clinical staff, and other employees. For those who build trust in AI, the technology could unlock new innovations for years to come.

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Endnotes:

^{1_{Electronic medical records: The good, the bad and the ugly, National Library of Medicine, March 2020}}

^{2_{Electronic Health Record impact on work burden, Journal of Internal Medicine, January 28, 2013}}

^{3_{The hours 23 physician specialties spend on paperwork, administration, Becker’s Hospital Review, April 19, 2023}}

^{4_{Overworked undervalued unmasking PCPs’ dissatisfaction 10 countries, The Commonwealth Fund, August 16, 2023}}

^{5_{E.U. agrees on AI Act, landmark regulation for AI, The New York Times, December 8, 2023}}

^{6_{How will Biden’s Executive Order on trustworthy AI impact healthcare?, Health IT Analytics, December 20, 2023}}

^{7_{The Finnish health sector growth and competitiveness vision 2030, SITRA, June 8, 2023,}}

^{8_{Innovative medical device developed in Israel uses AI to diagnose cardiac problems, All Israel News, July 17, 2023}}

^{9_{Japanese doctors start adopting GenAI, Mobile Health News, October 24, 2023}}

^{10_{Inside Taiwan’s AI hospital of the future, Microsoft, February 3, 2023}}

^{11_{Adoption of electronic health records and barriers, Journal of Community Hospital Internal Medicine Perspectives, October 26, 2016}}

^{12_{Healthcare data volume globally 2020 forecast, Statista, 2024}}

^{13_{Overcoming healthcare's reluctance to technological change, MedCity News, May 3, 2022}}

^{14_{A step in the right direction: the potential role of smartwatches in supporting chronic disease prevention, The Medical Journal of Australia, May 15, 2023}}

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