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Reshaped by the Russia-Ukraine war

Future economic scenarios of the war in Ukraine

How might the war in Ukraine evolve over the next six to eight months, and what could the near-term impacts of the conflict be for business leaders worldwide? To help executives prepare, Deloitte has identified four economic scenarios that describe different ways the war in Ukraine could impact industries and business over the course of the year.

The war in Ukraine has already catalyzed enormous disruption for businesses and economies around the globe. Its economic impact has reverberated through energy, commodity, and financial markets, as well as trade and supply chains already disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

While the geopolitical and humanitarian crisis dominates the headlines, a broad range of forces already at play are likely to shape business implications not only in 2022, but potentially for years to come. Understanding the possible near-term future scenarios and their implications will be critical to helping business leaders make informed decisions and navigate the evolving environment ahead.

Deloitte invites executives to explore these scenarios further and prepare for a world that no one can predict. Download Reshaped by War: Examining business implications of the conflict in Ukraine to get started.

Among the highlights:

Reshaped by war: Examining business implications of the conflict in Ukraine

Four futures of the war in Ukraine

Deloitte has identified four scenarios—stories about the future designed to spark insight and spot opportunity and risk—that describe different ways the Russia-Ukraine war could evolve throughout 2022 and how businesses will be impacted.

Selected implications for business

In close collaboration with an international team of subject-matter specialists, Deloitte has examined business implications of each scenario across various domains, including supply chain, cybersecurity, energy, the macroeconomy, talent, and food.

While each scenario brings unique implications for businesses and governments, certain trends are likely to persist across all scenarios:

  • Continued inflationary pressure on global economic growth
  • Prolonged global supply chains shocks
  • Increased focus on energy independence, but slower progress toward renewables
  • Increased risk of doing business in and with Russia
  • Growing risk to global food security
  • Heightened cyber risks facing businesses and governments

While the course of the Russia-Ukraine war is uncertain, the importance of taking action quickly is not. By stress-testing organizational strategies against different possible futures and the conditions they create, leaders can build resilience and gain greater clarity about key challenges and opportunities that might lie ahead.

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